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Poll gives Congress mixed grades

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Times Staff Writer

A bipartisan majority of Americans strongly supports the bills that whisked through the House in the first days of the Democratic-controlled Congress, but many remain uncertain about where the party wants to lead the nation, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

Approval of Congress has increased since the midterm elections ousted Republicans from their House and Senate majorities, and Democrats are viewed in a more positive light after two weeks in power, according to the survey.

But only 25% of those surveyed believed Democrats have formulated a clear direction for the country; 58% said they had failed to.

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Those results amount to a mixed report card on the much-ballyhooed “100-hour” agenda House Democrats set for themselves as they took power.

They made a strong start with House passage of some broadly popular bills, such as an increase in the minimum wage and a cut in student-loan rates, which passed with significant Republican support. It was a rare display of bipartisanship after years of the party-line splits that marked GOP control.

‘So far, so good’

But the survey underscores that Democrats still have much to prove to voters as the Senate debates these bills and lawmakers in both chambers turn to more divisive issues, such as the federal budget, global warming and Iraq.

Overall, the poll found 36% approve of how Congress is doing its job -- hardly a mandate, but up from 30% in September.

“So far, so good,” said Hildegard Wharton, a retiree in Wooster, Ohio, who responded to the poll.

Wharton, a Democrat, added, “I hope they do a better job than the Republicans. If they don’t, they are not going to get reelected.”

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The Times/Bloomberg poll, supervised by Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,344 adults by telephone Saturday through Tuesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

It found that pressure is especially high for Democrats to change course in Iraq; 45% identified the war as the most important issue for the new Congress to address, a far higher figure than for any other issue.

“If they just tackle this war and get these boys home, they will be doing good,” said Jerry Alexander, a retired car salesman in Savannah, Tenn., who is an independent. “They better, because that’s what they were elected for.”

The positive reaction among those polled to the major elements of the initial Democratic agenda ratifies the political strategy behind its design: Party leaders deliberately filled the congressional session’s opening hours with issues that, for the most part, polls have found enjoyed broad bipartisan support and were likely to pass before President Bush’s State of the Union address on Tuesday. One aim was to provide a contrast with the gridlock that stalled many bills during the recent years of the Republican-controlled Congress.

Legislation approved

The student-loan rate cut that passed the House on Wednesday was supported by 79% of those polled.

Legislation aimed at lowering prices in Medicare’s prescription drug program, which passed the House last week, was backed by 80%.

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Repealing tax breaks for big oil companies, which the House approved Thursday, was supported by 61%.

An expansion of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, passed by the chamber last week, was backed by 59%.

The most popular item was the push to increase the federal minimum wage, which under the House bill would rise over two years to $7.25 an hour from $5.15. The increase, which would be the first in a decade, was supported by 81% of those surveyed -- including 66% of self-described conservatives.

“The minimum-wage increase was long overdue,” said Susan Wilkinson, a homemaker and a Democrat who lives in Trabuco Canyon in Orange County. “It’s pretty sad that it had to be even an issue to debate.”

Democrats hope their early results will reinforce the judgment by voters in November that it was time for a change of control in Congress.

The new poll indicates a less critical view of congressional Democrats among the public -- although their favorable rating is virtually unchanged at 42%, compared to 40% in September; their unfavorable rating was 32%, down from 41%.

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Accompanying that drop was an increase -- to 22% from 15% -- in those who said they did not know enough about congressional Democrats to judge. That suggests there is a sizable wait-and-see faction among voters.

“I just don’t know how much of what they have done is going to bear any fruit,” said Jim Bauder, a computer programmer in Fort Jones, Calif.

Bauder, an independent, added, “President Bush has declared he’s going to veto many of the things they have passed. Is it going to be a situation where anything gets accomplished?”

Some of the early promises emanating from Washington are being viewed with skepticism.

Almost three-quarters of those surveyed -- 72% -- supported House-passed ethics reforms to ban gifts from lobbyists and require disclosure of pork-barrel projects. But only 27% said they believed such measures would make a real difference; 60% said they expect business as usual in the way Capitol Hill operates.

“My experience ... is that there have been reforms, but there always seems to be new or expanding loopholes people find,” said Bauder.

Helen Anderson, a teacher in Houston, said she was unimpressed with what Democrats have done in the opening weeks.

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“I think they are trying to make a big show to make it look like they are taking a new direction,” said Anderson, a Republican. “All they can say is they want to do the opposite of what’s being done now, but they don’t say how they are going to do it.”

Pelosi on the rise

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), in the news spotlight since the November elections as the first woman to lead either congressional chamber, remains little known to many Americans but has made some headway in raising her national profile.

Among those with an opinion, 34% viewed her favorably, 21% unfavorably. Still, 41% of those surveyed said they had not heard enough about her to have an opinion. In December, that figure was 50%; in September, 63%.

By some measures, people seem more optimistic about the economy: 68% said they thought it was doing well, up from 54% in September. Some attributed their upbeat outlook to the drop in gasoline prices.

“As prices go down on gas and energy, other prices will be coming down,” said Debra Glover, a substitute teacher in Oak Park, Mich., who is an independent. “It’s happening real fast. I’m liking that.”

But the poll also found increased anxiety about the impact of free trade: 41% said doing away with restrictions on international commerce hurts the economy.

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janet.hook@latimes.com

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Begin text of infobox

Opinions on Congress and the economy

Q: Have the Democrats in Congress formulated a clear direction for the country?

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Yes 25% 42% 21% 13% No 58 40 62 79 Don’t know 17 18 17 8

*--*

Q: What issue should be the first priority for the newly elected Congress to address? (top three responses; up to two responses accepted)

*--* Inde- Lib- Mod- Conser- Demo- Repub- pen- All erals erates vatives crats licans dents Iraq (total) 45% 63% 44% 36% 54% 45% 35% includes: Set a timetable 20 29 24 12 27 21 12 Oppose Bush plan 9 16 9 5 16 8 2 Alternative plan 7 9 6 8 7 9 5 Spending oversight 2 3 2 2 3 3 1 Healthcare 20 25 23 16 22 23 14 Stronger 10 4 8 17 6 11 16 immigration laws

*--*

Q: What is your impression of Democrats in Congress?

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Favorable 42% 73% 32% 21% Unfavorable 32 7 29 65 Haven’t heard/Don’t know 26 21 39 14

*--*

Q: What is your impression of Republicans in Congress?

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Favorable 35% 19% 22% 70% Unfavorable 44 60 50 18 Haven’t heard/Don’t know 21 21 28 11

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Q: Do you support or oppose a proposed House of Representatives ethics rules package that includes banning lobbyists’ gifts as well as making legislators fully disclose any earmarks or pet projects they insert into spending measures?

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Support strongly 59% 57% 66% 57% Support somewhat 13 11 12 16 Oppose somewhat 8 13 6 6 Oppose strongly 7 5 8 9 Don’t know 13 14 9 12

*--*

Q: Do you think the new ethics package proposed by the House of Representatives will make a real difference in how business is conducted in Washington?

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Yes 27% 32% 26% 21% No 60 52 64 69 Don’t know 13 16 10 10

*--*

Q: Do you support or oppose the following proposals that are currently being considered in Congress?

(Asked of all voters)

*--* Raising the minimum wage 81% 16 3 Allowing the government to negotiate lower prescription drug prices for senior citizens 80% 14 6 Screening cargo on planes/ships for terrorist weapons 80% 14 6 Reducing interest rates on student loans 79% 14 7 Repealing some of the oil industry’s tax breaks 61% 31 8 Increasing federal funding for embryonic stem cell research 59% 31 10 Imposing pay-as-you-go rules on congressional spending 51% 26 23

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Q: Which do you think is more effective in stimulating the nation’s economy: An economic agenda focused on . . .

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Returning money to 42% 35% 37% 59% taxpayers through tax cuts? Reducing the federal debt/ 46 51 50 34 and deficit? Don’t know? 12 14 13 7

*--*

*--* All Democrats Independents Republicans Returning money to 36% 25% 31% 57% taxpayers through tax cuts? Spending on healthcare/ 54 64 59 36 education? Don’t know 10 11 10 7

*--*

Q: President Bush said that even while continuing to fund military and reconstruction programs in Iraq, and making his tax cuts permanent, he will be able to balance the budget in five years. Do you think this is a realistic or unrealistic goal?

*--* Inde- Lib- Mod- Conser- Demo- Repub- pen- All erals erates vatives crats licans dents Realistic 18% 9% 13% 27% 7% 14% 37% Unrealistic 77 90 83 65 91 82 54 Don’t know 5 1 4 8 2 4 9

*--*

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Note: Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

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Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

How the poll was conducted: The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll contacted 1,344 adults nationwide by telephone Saturday through Tuesday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation, and random-digit dialing techniques allowed listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number. The adult population was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Source: Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls

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