A Leading Question

After weeks of poll-watching and hand-wringing for those with vested interests in USC and Louisiana State, a final BCS rendering will come Sunday after another weekend of meaningful college football games.

USC or LSU?

LSU or USC?

The ongoing battle of one-loss schools vying for the chance to play almost dead-lock-cinch Oklahoma in the Jan. 4 Sugar Bowl will go nip-and-tuck into the final weekend.

If you think of it in sprinters’ terms, USC is trying to hold off LSU’s kick as both schools lean into the tape.

With a BCS quartile lap to go, USC holds a 1.53 lead over LSU in the latest standings released Monday. A week ago, the Trojans led the Tigers by 2.15.

Oklahoma remained No. 1 at 2.06, and may have enough of a cushion to make the Sugar Bowl even with a Saturday loss to Kansas State.

USC held the second position with 6.90 points while No. 3 LSU is at 8.43.

The schools with the lowest totals in the final BCS standings will meet in the national-title game.

USC’s lead is larger than it looks if you consider that LSU, if it defeats Georgia in the Southeastern Conference title game Saturday, will lose part, if not all, of the .40 “quality win” deduction it is receiving for its Sept. 20 victory over the Bulldogs, who are No. 7 in the BCS.

Quality-win points are awarded for any victory over a team that finishes in the BCS top 10. Ironically, an LSU win this weekend likely will cost the Tigers their quality-win deduction.

And although USC clearly has the upper hand in this BCS race, variables in the BCS ranking system make it impossible to predict a certain national-title berth if USC defeats Oregon State and LSU beats Georgia.

“I think our focus needs to be on the game that we are playing and what is in front of us and nothing else,” LSU Coach Nick Saban told Associated Press.

How LSU could still make a race of it:

The Human Polls

USC is No. 2 in the writers’ and coaches’ polls while LSU is No. 3. Should LSU pass USC in one poll, the Tigers would pick up a full point in the BCS poll-average component; it’s a two-point swing if LSU passes USC in both polls.

USC’s poll average appears secure so long as the Trojans convincingly defeat 7-4 Oregon State on Saturday. The Beavers have not beaten USC in Los Angeles since 1960.

USC’s support among the voting writers and coaches seems solid ... for now. This was indicated when USC, on a bye weekend, lost only minimal ground to LSU in both polls despite the Tigers’ 55-24 win over Arkansas.

If USC plays poorly in victory against Oregon State, however, while LSU scores a convincing win over No. 5 Georgia in the SEC championship, it might lead to a switch in either poll -- or both.

Margin of victory has been removed from the BCS calculations, but it is still a factor in voter judgments.

So, to protect its No. 2 poll position, it would behoove USC to defeat Oregon State by as many points as possible and deal with the sportsmanship issue later.

The Computers

LSU is closing fast on USC in this component, but it will take a hostile takeover for the Tigers to have a chance. LSU might need to finish ahead of USC in six of the seven BCS computers to nab the Sugar Bowl bid.

This week, USC is ahead of LSU in four of the seven computers, but a win over Georgia could change LSU’s hand.

Notre Dame at Syracuse

Hey there, Irish, are you friend or foe? A Notre Dame win would help USC in the computer and strength-of-schedule components. In fact, one independent BCS analyst said the Notre Dame-Syracuse game will determine whether USC or LSU finishes No. 2 in the Wes Colley Matrix, one of the seven computers utilized in the BCS mix.

USC is No. 2 in Colley this week, LSU No. 4.

In the end, either a one-loss USC or a one-loss LSU would have a strong argument about being left out of the title mix.

In fact, since USC moved into the No. 2 BCS spot on Nov. 10, the Trojans have had quite a Tiger on their tails.

LSU was No. 4 in the BCS that weekend and 6.9 points behind USC. The next week, LSU closed the gap on No. 3 USC, which had fallen behind Ohio State, to 4.5 points.

Last week, Ohio State’s loss to Michigan cleared USC’s return to No. 2, but LSU crept to within 2.15 points of USC.

How is LSU closing the gap? For weeks, the Tigers were hurt by their weak nonconference schedule, but their power numbers have vastly improved as they moved through tougher SEC competition.

This weekend’s final regular-season weekend will, at last, solidify the national title picture and allow the other BCS bowls to fall in place.

Oklahoma’s Big 12 title game against Kansas State also has major implications.

Oklahoma probably can afford a defeat and still earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl.

A Kansas State win, though, would thoroughly scramble the BCS picture.

As Big 12 champions, Kansas State would earn an automatic BCS berth in the Fiesta Bowl. If Oklahoma goes to the Sugar Bowl, the BCS loser would be 10-2 Texas, which is hoping to secure one of two at-large berths.

BCS rules stipulate that no more than two teams from one conference can qualify for BCS games, so Texas would be out in this scenario, and that would affect the entire major-bowl pecking order.

The Rose Bowl, for instance, is looking at Texas as an at-large candidate to play Michigan.

There is another scenario to ponder, and it’s not so far-fetched.

If Kansas State defeats Oklahoma, and LSU jumps USC in the final BCS standings, it is conceivable USC could be No. 1 in the writers’ and coaches’ polls while Oklahoma and LSU would play for the BCS national title in the Sugar Bowl.

By contract, the Sugar Bowl winner must receive the coaches’ share of the national title, but USC could claim the Associated Press title by defeating Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

So what are the chances of Kansas State defeating Oklahoma and creating BCS havoc?

For what it’s worth, the Wildcats have not won a conference title since 1934.

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BCS Standings

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