Dale Earnhardt Jr. needs top 20 finish to make NASCAR playoff

Will Junior make it?

Whether Dale Earnhardt Jr. can qualify for NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup title playoff is a key question as the Sprint Cup Series holds the last race of its regular season in Richmond, Va., on Saturday night.

Earnhardt is clinging to ninth in the Cup standings, and the top 10 drivers in points make the Chase. So do two wild-card drivers who have the most wins so far this season among those 11th to 20th in the standings.

If Earnhardt finishes 20th or higher at Saturday’s race at Richmond International Raceway, the popular driver would clinch a Chase berth. And Earnhardt is a three-time winner at the 0.75-mile Richmond oval.

But Earnhardt has struggled in recent weeks, finishing in the top 10 only once in the last 11 races, and the Hendrick Motorsports driver now has gone more than three years, and 118 races, without visiting Victory Lane.

“I feel good about our program, but it will be disappointing to miss an opportunity to race for the championship if we don’t get in,” Earnhardt told reporters at Richmond on Friday.

But Earnhardt, who hasn’t been in the Chase since 2008, added: “I feel like we are a good enough team to get it done.”

Nine drivers have already secured spots in the Chase, led by current points leader Jimmie Johnson, who’s seeking a record sixth consecutive championship.

Earnhardt is among 14 drivers still eligible to fill the remaining three Chase slots. They include Tony Stewart, a two-time champion, who is 10th in the standings only two points behind Earnhardt. Stewart can secure a Chase spot by finishing 18th or better Saturday.

NASCAR no doubt would like to see Earnhardt and Stewart in the playoff to help bolster the appeal of this year’s 10-race Chase, which opens Sept. 18 in Chicago and runs its course during the National Football League season.

First, though, Earnhardt and Stewart will have to navigate through a pack of drivers whose only hope of making the Chase is by winning Saturday’s race and gaining one of the wild-card spots.

Brad Keselowski, 11th in points, has secured at least one of the wild-card berths because he has three wins this season, more than the other drivers 11th to 20th in the standings. Two other drivers in that group have one win: Denny Hamlin (12th in points) and Paul Menard (20th).

All of which means the other drivers 11th to 20th in points must win Saturday’s race to have any chance of making the Chase as a wild card.

They include A.J. Allmendinger, who’s 13th in points. “It is pretty simple,” Allmendinger said. “We go out there and try to win the race.”

Meanwhile, the leading title contenders will have their last tune-up at Richmond before the playoff.

They include Johnson’s teammate Jeff Gordon, who’s fifth in points and seeking a fifth championship. Gordon, 40, won Tuesday’s rain-delayed race in Atlanta for his 85th career Cup win, placing him third on NASCAR’s all-time win list.

Gordon “is a very serious threat for the championship,” Johnson said Friday.

Other drivers locked in the Chase and hoping to dethrone Johnson include Kyle Busch (second in points), who has a series-high four wins this season; Carl Edwards (third) and former champion Matt Kenseth (fourth), Edwards’ teammate at Roush Fenway Racing.

james.peltz@latimes.com