What driver can give defending Sprint Cup champion Kyle Busch a run for his money?

Handicapping the NASCAR Chase field is easy: It’s trouble for anyone not driving a Toyota.

The Joe Gibbs Racing crew has a stout lineup. Look it up: The team of Toyotas has won half of the 26 races leading into the Chase, if you include the alliance with Martin Truex Jr. and Furniture Row Racing.

The aerial view is fairly clear. Everyone else in the 16-driver lineup is playing catch-up, although it would be foolish to dismiss the boys in Penske Racing Fords, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.

Keselowski in particular is a formidable foe, winning four races. Add to that his propensity to mix it up if necessary, and you’ve got some potential Chase fireworks involving anyone as well as Tony Stewart.

“Brad Keselowski is the guy you have to look hardest at because he has won the four races,” said Larry McReynolds, Fox Sports NASCAR analyst. “And if you just look at his last six races, he has four top 5 finishes. They still seem to have what you need.”

There are always quirky variables in play as the field gets whittled down by four every three races, leading to a Final Four scenario in Homestead. A cut tire, crash or lousy pit stop can crush anybody. A win and you move on as the pressure builds to the first cutoff at Dover.

But the odds — both in numbers and dominance — favor JGR. The team includes defending champion Kyle Busch, another former champ in Matt Kenseth, and Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards.

Hamlin has a pair of bookend victories in the non-Chase regular season — Daytona and Richmond — that underscore his skills on all types of tracks.

In addition to Jamie McMurray, 2014 champion Kevin Harvick and 2004 champ Kurt Busch, the rest of the field includes four first-timers — Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson as well as rookies Chase Elliott and Chris Buescher — and a six-time champ who is on the ropes, Jimmie Johnson.

“The other big question on everybody’s mind is that we always believe that Jimmie Johnson will always be a contender, and understandably,” McReynolds said. “But my gosh — and I even heard him say it a few weeks ago — this is the worst slump they have ever been in.

“Their pit stops look like the Keystone Cops running around. It’s things that are uncharacteristic of that team. To me that’s the biggest question mark heading into this Chase. Can they get this ship righted? It’s been a bit dismal in that camp.”

My pick: Hamlin ends up where he started the season, in Victory Lane, as a newly crowned NASCAR champ.