Human Behavior

Election forecasting in the age of Trump

Election forecasting in the age of Trump

Ray Fair of Yale University says that if his election forecasting model is correct, the Republican nominee is likely to win the presidency by a convincing margin. John Sides of George Washington University agrees; the “fundamentals,” he says, give the Republican about a 60% chance of winning. Alan Abramowitz of Emory University gives Republicans a solid shot at the White House too; his model gives the GOP the edge — but in “a very close election.”

But thanks to Donald Trump, their carefully honed forecasting models may have lost their...