Southern California leading economic indicator ticks up

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

Economic activity in Southern California will pick up in the next three to six months, according to an economic indicator released by Cal State Fullerton Thursday morning. The leading economic indicator, calculated by professor Adrian Fleissig, increased by 0.87% in the first quarter of 2010, the second consecutive quarter of growth.

We’ve had two increases in a row, and this is a pretty sizable increase,” Fleissig said. “It looks like we’re starting to move out of the recession.”

Economists will be looking for more employment gains this year before they are confident that recovery is underway, he said.

The positive effects on the indicator came from increases in the S&P 500, consumer confidence in the Pacific region, building permits and nonfarm employment in Southern California. Negative effects on the indicator came from decline in the money supply, changes in the interest rate spread and an increase in regional unemployment.
Also Thursday morning, Intuit said small businesses continued to hire in May. Businesses with fewer than 20 employees created 25,000 jobs in May, and 240,000 since October 2009. Compensation per worker started to grow slightly, after remaining flat since 2008.

Intuit uses payroll data to calculate these figures.

-- Alana Semuels