U.S. Civilian Targets of Terrorism Seen : Safer Official Installations Refocus Threat, State Dept. Aide Says

International terrorist groups are expected to step up their attacks on U.S.-owned businesses, schools attended by Americans and other civilian targets in Europe, Asia and Latin America as an unwanted result of better anti-terrorism measures at U.S. embassies and military installations, the State Department’s counterterrorism chief says.

“As we harden American official targets, we may cause terrorists to hit at softer American targets: business organizations, schools, etc., which have not been targeted in the past,” L. Paul Bremer III said in an interview before his departure for California, where he is scheduled to deliver speeches next week in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Bremer, former U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands, said the task of fighting terrorism is riddled with frustrating contradictions of the “Catch-22” type. Not only do many preventive measures shift the focus of the terrorists from one target to another, but it is often impossible to warn the public about the threat without disclosing the identity of informants who are indispensable for counterterrorism programs.

So far, Bremer said, anti-terrorism programs are much like locking the door of a house to protect against burglars: Even with a locked door, a determined burglar can get in, but the householder hopes that instead of exerting the additional effort needed to bypass the locks, he will go to another home. Similarly, anti-terrorist measures are intended to make terrorism “incrementally more difficult.”

Last year, Western European nations adopted precautions that Washington has been urging for years, improving the security at airports, tightening visa requirements, improving intelligence techniques and taking other steps. In addition, the United States began a variety of anti-terrorism programs at its embassies and other official installations abroad.

At first glance, the results seem impressive. Terrorist incidents in Western Europe declined by one-third last year to 146, from the 218 registered in 1985. But incidents worldwide showed a decline of only 6%, from 785 to 737, as terrorists apparently searched out easier targets. Incidents in Latin America were up from 119 in 1985 to 157 last year, a 31% increase, and incidents in Asia rose from 42 to 62, a 47% increase.

Moreover, the anti-terrorism programs did not prevent attacks on Americans. U.S. citizens were the targets of 198 terrorist incidents last year, the most of any nationality and up from 170 in 1985. Israelis were targeted 193 times. All but two of the attacks against Americans were staged abroad.

Bremer said American businessmen, schools and other installations in foreign countries should follow the lead of U.S. embassies in trying to make their facilities more secure against terrorism, even if it does little more than shift the attacks to other targets.

He said that courts, especially in Europe, have sharply increased prosecution of terrorists. Bremer said prosecutions enhance the fight against terrorism in two ways, by sending individual terrorists to jail and by dramatizing the extent of the threat.

As a result of recent court cases, he said, the public has a better idea of how terrorists operate. To get convictions, prosecutors must divulge information about terrorism that ordinarily is kept secret. Although necessary to protect informants, Bremer said, this secrecy often causes the public to underestimate the danger from terrorists.

“To get really good intelligence (about terrorist organizations), you have to have an informant in the group,” Bremer said. “You can’t get it from satellites.”

But if information obtained from infiltrators is made public, the terrorists probably can deduce the identity of the informant, he said, and “that signs his death warrant.”

Taking terrorism cases to court runs the risk of “burning” informants, Bremer said, but prosecutors must balance the issues involved in deciding what action to take.