50-100 Million May Have AIDS Virus by 1991

The World Health Organization said today that 50 million to 100 million people may be infected with the AIDS virus by 1991 contrasted with an estimated 5 million to 10 million at present.

Even this assumption may prove to be conservative if acquired immune deficiency syndrome spreads through South America and Asia, the WHO said in a report on future strategy to combat the killer disease.

The magnitude and impact of the world AIDS epidemic has been seriously underestimated and under-appreciated, it said.

The document was presented to medical officers and public health officials from 30 countries at the opening here today of a two-day meeting to review progress in a global WHO program aimed at checking the spread of AIDS.

The report said AIDS cases reported to the WHO by last April 1--45,700 in 102 countries--represented only a fraction of all present cases, which it estimated at more than 100,000.

AIDS, for which there is no known cure, is spread through sexual intercourse or exchanges of blood as in shared hypodermic syringes. It breaks down the body’s natural defenses and leaves victims susceptible to infections and cancers.

Projections of AIDS infections and deaths over the next five years must be made with caution, it said.

Worse Viruses Foreseen

But for planning purposes the WHO assumed that 500,000 to 3 million new AIDS cases might occur by 1991 among people already infected with the virus but who had not developed the disease.

“Worldwide 50 (million) to 100 million persons may be HIV (AIDS virus) infected by 1991,” it said.

The report said the AIDS virus may be the forerunner of other viruses that could cause bigger problems than the existing AIDS epidemic.