THE TIMES POLL : State Voters Back Perot Over Clinton and Bush

Maverick independent Ross Perot has swept into favor among California voters, pulling ahead of a faltering President Bush and likely Democratic nominee Bill Clinton in a projected November presidential matchup, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

A survey of 1,469 voters questioned by telephone May 16-19 found that if the general election were held now, 39% would vote for Perot, the Texas billionaire who is expected to announce this month that he will pursue an independent campaign.

Arkansas Gov. Clinton had the support of 26% and Bush received 25%.

Perot gained seven points over his standing in the last Times Poll, taken April 23-26. That survey showed the two Texans, Perot and Bush, running neck and neck with 32% and 33% respectively, and Clinton at 26%, where he still resides.

Times Poll director John Brennan said that Perot’s movement apparently came at the expense of the President.

“There has been an erosion in Bush’s position,” he said. “Clinton is stable.”

Another indication of Bush’s difficulties came when respondents were asked how they would vote in a general election contest between only two men, the President and Clinton. Voters this week made it a statistical dead heat, 42% for Clinton and 40% for Bush. Only last month, Bush led 49% to 38%.

That was not the last of the bad news for the President: His job approval rating slumped to 35% from 50% in December. Overall, California voters expressed widespread dismay not only with Bush but also at the state’s condition, with four in five saying that California is on the wrong track.

Clinton now leads former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., 48% to 38%, among likely voters in the upcoming Democratic presidential primary. Clinton leads Brown by a similar 47% to 38% margin among all registered Democrats.

Clinton reversed the results of the last Times Poll, which had Brown ahead 51% to 37% among registered Democrats. While there was a demonstrable weakness on Brown’s part--the percentage of California voters with a good impression of him has dropped--Times Poll director Brennan cautioned that the race remains volatile.

If former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas is included in the race, Clinton leads with 38%, compared to 32% for Brown and 20% for Tsongas.

Fully a third of both Clinton’s and Brown’s supporters said they might switch their allegiance before the June 2 election, the poll showed.

Bush’s general downturn does not seem to have hurt his chances in the Republican presidential primary. Even as Bush crumbles in the hypothetical November contests, he leads challenger Patrick J. Buchanan 76% to 14% among likely primary voters.

The President last month secured a lock on the GOP nomination, but Buchanan has stayed in the race to press his conservative viewpoint. Despite the state’s largely negative views of Bush, however, Buchanan is clearly not seen as a political savior. Only one in four registered voters said they had a favorable impression of the former television commentator.

The Los Angeles Times Poll questioned 638 registered Democrats and 564 registered Republicans, including 415 likely Democratic voters and 380 likely Republican voters. For statistics drawn from all voters, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Percentages citing either registered Republicans or Democrats carry a margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points, and 6 points for likely voters.

The survey was taken as the presidential campaign at long last reached California, the most important state in the union politically with its November prize of 54 electoral votes. This year, that constitutes one-fifth of the number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

But as in most past presidential years, California is all but an afterthought in this primary season. Bush is already the nominee-elect, and Clinton is expected to follow suit on June 2. The candidates have just begun sporadic campaigning here.

The poll illustrated the dominant political reality of the last several weeks: The likely standard-bearers for the nation’s major political parties have been eclipsed in voters’ imaginations by a blunt-talking Texas businessman who has pledged to spend whatever of his fortune he needs to win the presidency if voters will sign the necessary petitions to get him on state ballots.

The poll also makes clear that voters do not have a clear picture of Perot’s priorities, but they still see him as the candidate best equipped to foment change.

Perot’s popularity knew no geographical boundaries--he was leading in all five general areas of the state--Los Angeles and the rest of Southern California, San Francisco and the rest of Northern California, and the vast Central Valley.

He was marginally stronger in Southern California, an indication of potential woe for President Bush because Orange and San Diego counties have long been the bulwarks of support for Republicans.

A separate Times Poll of Orange County residents, taken May 17-19 by pollster Mark Baldassare, also contained bleak news for Bush. In the county, where Republicans can usually count on enough votes to offset Democratic gains elsewhere, Perot led Bush 42% to 36%, with Clinton trailing at 16%.

In the current statewide poll, Perot seems to be drawing strength almost equally from those who would vote for either Bush or Clinton in a two-way race. To test voter reaction on that score, the Times Poll first asked voters how they would cast ballots in a hypothetical Bush-Clinton race.

Then, they were asked how they would vote if all three candidates were running in November.

Almost a third--31%--of the voters who first said they would support Clinton switched to Perot when given that option. Significantly, 33% of the Bush voters also switched to Perot.

Of the Democrats, 35% said they would vote for Perot, as would 54% of registered independents and 41% of Republicans.

Perot was drawing support in fairly equal percentages from people across the political spectrum--an indication that voters do not know, or do not care, about whether Perot’s personal ideology reflects their own.

Liberals were slightly less supportive--36% said they supported Perot, while 41% supported Clinton.

Among self-described conservatives, Perot ran evenly with Bush, 40% to 41%. And 42% of moderates voted for Perot, compared to 26% who sided with Clinton and 20% who favored Bush.

Additionally, more than a quarter of the Perot voters--asked an open-ended question of “What is the main reason why you would vote for Ross Perot?”--said that Perot represented change. And many of the other answers to that question reflected the same desire for a different kind of candidate.

Nineteen percent, for example, said they liked Perot because “he is an outsider, not part of the Washington Establishment.” Another 12% said they did not like the other candidates. And 16% said it was because Perot is an independent and not a Democrat or Republican.

Overall, asked who among the candidates was best able to accomplish change, 32% said Perot, easily outdistancing Bush at 21% and Clinton at 17%.

In charting the demographics of Perot’s support, it was clear that his forward movement in the last month was broad-based.

He increased his support among Democrats, independents and Republicans. Bush at the same time dropped in favor from 57% to 47% within his own party and from 28% to 16% among independents.

Perot climbed among all ideological constituencies, among men and women, and among Anglo and black voters. Better-educated, upper-income and white-collar workers, as well as voters under age 30, also leaned more heavily to Perot this month than in the earlier survey.

If the poll broadcast only good signals to Perot, it forwarded static to the other major candidates. Both Bush and Clinton, the poll found, were drawing the support of less than half of the voters in their own party.

The Los Angeles riots appear to have had little effect on Bush’s political prospects. Asked if they were more or less likely to vote for Bush as a result of the riots, only 3% said they were more likely. Another 17%--almost one in five--said they were less likely, while the vast majority said it did not matter.

But Clinton--and to a larger extent his sole remaining Democratic opponent, former Gov. Brown--could take little heart from Bush’s woes, for they have problems of their own.

Clinton, for example, has long positioned himself as the candidate of change, and now finds himself overrun by an even more potent symbol of an outsider. While it might be predictable that Perot is judged by voters to be a stronger advocate for change, it is also striking that Bush is slightly more prone to be seen as an agent of change than Clinton--21% to 17%.

For Brown, who has hoped that in his home state he would find the political support he has been denied elsewhere, there was little good news. Brown’s favorable rating among Democrats slipped from 67% in April to 58% in May.

Among all voters, the least favorite candidate was clearly Buchanan. Twenty-four percent said they had a good impression of him, while nearly half registered an unfavorable image. Among Republicans, predictably, Buchanan did better--40% had a good impression of him, but slightly more disliked him.

THE TIMES POLL: Perot Jumps Into the Lead

A survey of registered voters shows that Californians now prefer Ross Perot over President Bush and likely Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton. Voters’ desire for change, as opposed to idealogical or party preferences, emerged as the key reason for Perot’s support. Ross Perot: 39% Bill Clinton: 26% George Bush: 25% Don’t know: 9% Someone else: 1%

What is your main reason for backing Perot? (The top answers. Two reasons accepted.) Represents change: 27% Can help economy: 22% He’s an outsider: 19% Not tied to a party: 16% Don’t like the other candidates: 12% He’s concerned about average citizen: 10% Not tied to special interests: 7% Source: The Times Poll, taken May 16-19, is based on interviews with 1,469 registered voters across California. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

THE TIMES POLL: The Presidential Race in California

A survey of California voters shows Bill Clinton with an edge over Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. in the Democratic race as President Bush continues his wide lead over Patrick J. Buchanan for the GOP nomination.

THE DEMOCRATS

If the Democratic primary for President were held today in California and the candidates were Jerry Brown and Bill Clinton, for whom would you vote? Likely voters Clinton: 48% Brown: 38% Someone else: 6% Don’t know: 8%

THE REPUBLICANS

If the Republican primary for President were held today in California and the candidates were George Bush and Patrick J. Buchanan, for whom would you vote? Likely Voters Bush: 76% Buchanan: 14% Someone else: 7% Don’t know: 3% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll taken May 16-19. The poll on the Democratic primary is based on interviews with 415 likely Democratic voters, and the GOP primary on 380 likely Republican voters. Margin of error is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,469 California registered voters, including 638 Democrats and 564 Republicans, by telephone Saturday through Tuesday. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in either English or Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. For example, the error margin on the samples of registered Democratic and Republican voters is plus or minus 5 points.