THE TIMES POLL : Riot Rhetoric Has Little Effect in Senate Races

Despite the best efforts of some U.S. Senate candidates, California voters so far are not being swayed by anything the campaigners are saying about the Los Angeles riots, the Times Poll has found.

In fact, Rep. Mel Levine of Los Angeles, the Democratic candidate who after the riots made “failure of political leadership” and “mob rule” the dominant sound bites of his campaign, has not improved his standing since the last Times poll was conducted just before the violence erupted. Before that, Levine had been coming on fast.

Meanwhile, veteran Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy, who has been aiming his campaign at moderates and the middle class, seems to have stabilized his race after having lost significant ground. The result is that McCarthy, Levine and Rep. Barbara Boxer of Marin County still are in a tight contest for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston.

The latest Times Poll standings among registered Democratic voters are McCarthy 28%, Boxer 24% and Levine 22%, with 26% undecided. In a similar Times survey in late April, the standings were Boxer 26%, McCarthy 24% and Levine 21%. In this new poll, both McCarthy and Boxer gain slightly when only likely voters are counted, but Levine stays virtually the same.

The size of the voter turnout on June 2 appears to be a much bigger factor in a close race for the Republican nomination to replace Cranston. Among all registered Republicans, Rep. Tom Campbell of Palo Alto has opened up a shaky 10-point lead over Los Angeles television commentator Bruce Herschensohn. But Campbell’s advantage is halved to 5 points among just the likely voters. And when a very low voter turnout is projected, the two candidates run virtually dead even, an indication of Campbell’s soft support.

The Times Poll standings among registered Republicans are Campbell 37%, Herschensohn 27% and former Palm Springs Mayor Sonny Bono 9%, with 27% undecided. In late April, it was Campbell 28%, Herschensohn 23% and Bono 13%. When only likely voters are counted in the latest survey, the conservative Herschensohn moves up noticeably, resulting in standings of Campbell 38%, Herschensohn 33% and Bono 11%.

These two primary election contests are for nominations to fill a full six-year Senate term. Also up for grabs on June 2 are nominations to finish out the remaining two years of a Senate term begun by Republican Pete Wilson before he was elected governor.

In those two races, big leads are enjoyed by Democrat Dianne Feinstein, who was narrowly beaten by Wilson in the 1992 gubernatorial campaign, and Republican John Seymour, whom Wilson appointed as his successor in the Senate. But the GOP contest still appears to be volatile because nearly half the voters are undecided.

The standings among registered voters:

Democrats--Feinstein 55%, state Controller Gray Davis 24% and Joseph Alioto (son of the former San Francisco mayor) 4%, with 17% undecided.

Republicans--Seymour 34%, Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton 14%, William Allen (a member of the U.S. Civil Rights Commission) 5% and Jim Trinity (a retired dentist) 1%, with 46% undecided.

Among likely voters, the leads of Feinstein and Seymour increase slightly.

The statewide survey of 1,469 registered voters, supervised by Times Poll Director John Brennan, was conducted for four days ending Tuesday night. Among those interviewed by telephone were 638 Democrats, including 415 who were considered likely to vote, and 564 Republicans, including 380 likely voters. The margin of error for all voters is 3 percentage points in either direction. For Democrats and Republicans separately, the error margin is 5 points, and it is 6 points for the likely voters.

One natural reaction to the riots, by both the public and the politicians, has been to ponder causes and affix blame.

Rep. Levine, a veteran Westside legislator long allied with liberals, quickly produced a television commercial and a fund-raising mailer featuring a conservative law-and-order message. Boxer denounced the strategy as “demagoguery” and McCarthy termed it “cynical.” Boxer and McCarthy both agreed that the lawbreakers should be punished, but said the riots were more complex than Levine’s simple sound bite indicated. Levine, in turn, criticized his opponents for failing to “call anarchy anarchy when it’s anarchy.”

Meanwhile, Davis, who has been using the same campaign consultants as Levine, has produced similar TV commercials attacking “mob violence.”

On the Republican side, Herschensohn immediately described the rioters as rotten criminals with no conscience. And Rep. Dannemeyer opposed a federal aid bill to provide loans and relief for riot victims. Seymour supported the legislation, but pledged to see that “not one penny” goes to looters or arsonists.

The Times Poll, however, found little evidence that any of Levine’s commercials or the other candidates’ riot rhetoric have influenced voters one way or the other.

When those surveyed were asked whether there was any Senate candidate they were more inclined--or less inclined--to vote for “because of their position or statements on the recent rioting in Los Angeles,” 91% answered no.

Feinstein and Boxer also have been focusing on feminist issues, believing this may be a good year for women candidates. About six in 10 Democrats told Times interviewers they consider it “important” to vote for a woman Senate candidate. But only about three-fourths of those Democrats who consider it important actually were planning to vote for a woman in the Senate contests.

Among Democratic voters, about two-thirds of the women and half of the men said it is important to support a woman Senate candidate. Feinstein was drawing significantly more support from women than from men, beating Davis by 3 to 1 among women but just 3 to 2 among men. Boxer, however, was faring virtually the same with women and men.

Except for Feinstein, and to a lesser degree statewide officeholders McCarthy and Davis, the Senate candidates still were not well known outside their home bases with only two weeks remaining before the election.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,469 California registered voters, including 638 Democrats and 564 Republicans, by telephone from May 16-19. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in either English or Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. For example, the error margin on the samples of registered Democratic and Republican voters is plus or minus 5 points.

THE TIMES POLL

U.S. Senate Races

A survey of California voters shows close races for the nominations to replace retiring Alan Cranston in the U.S. Senate. The primary contests for California’s other Senate seat, however, appear lopsided. If the primary election were held today, whom would you vote for? SIX-YEAR SEAT

Reg. Likely Reg. Dems Dems Dems (Now) (Now) (in April) Boxer 24% 28% 26% Levine 22% 21% 21% McCarthy 28% 31% 24% Don’t Know 26% 20% 29%

SIX-YEAR SEAT

Reg. Likely Reg. GOP GOP GOP* (Now) (Now) (in April) Campbell 37% 38% 28% Herschensohn 27% 33% 23% Bono 9% 11% 13% Don’t Know 27% 18% 35%

TWO-YEAR SEAT

Reg. Likely Reg. Dems Dems Dems (Now) (Now) (in April) Feinstein 55% 62% 57% Davis 24% 27% 29% Alioto 4% 3% NA Don’t Know 17% 8% 14%

TWO-YEAR SEAT

Reg. Likely Reg. GOP GOP GOP* (Now) (Now) (in April) Seymour 34% 39% 31% Dannemeyer 14% 17% 14% Allen 5% 5% NA Trinity 1% 1% NA Don’t Know 46% 38% 50%

FAVORABILITY RATINGS Among Registered Democrats:

Fav. Unfav. Don’t Know Boxer 30% 12% 58% Davis 49% 16% 35% Feinstein 69% 20% 11% Levine 35% 15% 50% McCarthy 53% 21% 26%

Among Registered Republicans:

Fav. Unfav. Don’t Know Bono 27% 43% 30% Campbell 36% 13% 51% Dannemeyer 21% 11% 68% Herschensohn 35% 12% 53% Seymour 38% 18% 44%

NOTE: Times Poll conducted May 16-19 of 1,469 registered voters in California. The survey included 638 registered Democrats (including 415 likely Democratic voters) and 564 registered Republicans (including 380 likely Republican voters). Error margin on all registered voters is plus or minus 3 points. On Democratic and Republican registered voters it is 5 points. On likely voters it is 6 points.

* May not add to 100% because “someone else” responses are not included.