THE TIMES POLL : O.C. Residents Strongly Back U.S. Role in Somalia

Orange County residents overwhelmingly support U.S. involvement in Somalia even though many expect that the humanitarian mission will result in at least some troop casualties, according to The Times Poll.

The poll found that 74% of county residents support the military’s role in the famine-stricken African nation, while only 20% disapprove.

“What you are getting is solid approval for this action,” said John Brennan, who directs The Times Poll. The poll found wide support among young and old, men and women, liberals and conservatives, and Anglos and non-Anglos, Brennan said.

Generally, residents do not anticipate that the mission will be protracted or involve hundreds of casualties, Brennan said.

The telephone survey of 1,128 adults, which has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, was conducted Dec. 4-8, before forces actually landed in Somalia.

The high level of support in the county for the military mission in Somalia is similar to the support found in recent nationwide polls, which showed support in the 70% range.

“I think the troops should go because it’s a humanitarian effort rather than an aggressive one,” said Jan Feldman, 40, of Fullerton, who took the part in the survey. “You can’t turn your back on people in need.

“You’re kind of torn between being a bleeding heart liberal and saying that it’s not our business. But if not us, who?” said Feldman, who described herself as conservative.

Among those who support sending the 28,000 troops to Somalia, almost two-thirds said they “strongly approved” of President Bush’s decision.

Of all county residents, 10% “disapproved strongly” of the mission and 10% “disapproved somewhat.”

Trovie Lyons, 69, of Laguna Niguel said it is not “the U.S.’s responsibility to get involved.” He said that he wouldn’t be surprised if “we lost more military personnel than was lost in Operation Desert Storm. . . . This (Somalia) thing might turn into a never-ending process.”

Lyons added that he viewed the Somalia famine as “nature’s way of controlling a huge human problem on the earth. Same as with AIDS.”

Generally, however, county residents back the troop deployment even though most doubt that the mission will be brief or entirely bloodless.

For example, hardly anyone felt the troops would be out of Somalia within a month of their arrival, while 50% thought a one- to six-month stay is most likely. A quarter of the residents expect U.S. forces to remain longer than six months.

As for casualties among U.S forces, a majority of county residents felt that there will be some loss of life, though there was no consensus on what the casualty count would be. Thirty percent felt fewer than 100 would die, but only 14% expected more than that, including 3% who anticipate 500 or more.

Fully one quarter of county residents said no U.S. forces would be killed during the incursion.

The Times Poll found that levels of support for the mission do not drop off drastically even among those who are most pessimistic about casualties and the length of the deployment.

Almost seven in 10 of those who thought U.S. forces would have to remain for more than a year still approved of the plan, as did 63% of those who felt that 100 or more lives would be lost. But those against the mission were more likely to think it will last longer and casualties will be higher.

Brennan said future levels of public approval are speculative. He pointed out that support for the Korean and Vietnam wars fell off sharply as they dragged on and the number of American deaths climbed into the thousands.

Several of the respondents said in interviews that they backed the U.S. military’s role in Somalia because it is a humanitarian mission.

“I feel that we’re really fortunate and blessed to live here and have the wealth of this nation,” said Kelly Collins, 32, of Orange. “I’m glad we’re able to help people in such dire need. It can only strengthen us.”

Collins said the United States has an obligation to help prevent the starving. “It’s the same argument that you should help a neighbor in need. I just feel that part of the human existence is giving.”

She added that she did not expect any casualties. “Perhaps that’s naive,” she said.

Jerry Jacobson, 50, of Cypress also supported the mission.

“On a moral basis I think it is necessary,” Jacobson said. “It’s something that we’ve never attempted before, but it appears to be the only way you’re going to be able to distribute food to all those starving people.”

Wes Nichols, 28, of Newport Beach was among the minority who disapproved of the U.S. involvement.

“I think this just sets a dangerous precedent of being the world’s policeman,” he said. “I’m against it.”

Instead of going to Somalia, Nichols said, the United States should “focus domestically on the problems we have here.

The poll found no major demographic group in the county opposed to the plan. It did find, however, that those with higher incomes and more education were more likely to back the incursion than less well-off and less educated residents.

The results of the poll are in sharp contrast to an earlier survey about a similar U.S. mission to Bosnia. The levels of approval for the Somalia deployment are substantially higher than those found by The Times when it asked a nationwide sample in August about sending ground troops to speed the flow of humanitarian aid into Bosnia. That poll found 43% saying yes to sending the troops, while 44% answered no.

Somalia Support

Three-quarters of Orange County residents support President Bush’s decision to send 28,000 troops to Somalia. Approve strongly: 46% Approve somewhat: 28% Disapprove somewhat: 10% Disapprove strongly: 10% Don’t know: 6% *

Most residents, 54%, also think there will be some American soldiers killed in the operation. Just one quarter think no one will die. No deaths: 23% Less than 25: 16% 26-99: 14% 100 or more: 14% Not sure how many: 10% Not sure if any: 23% Source: Times Orange County Poll

No Quick Mission Expected

Hardly any county residents expect America’s operation in Somalia will be a quick, 30-day affair. However, half think it will take no longer than six months. Half as many expect U.S. forces to remain more than six months, and 21% are unsure. 1-6 months: 50% Up to 1 year: 14% More than 1 year: 6% Indefinitely: 5% Not sure: 21% Less than one month: 4% *

Widespread Approval

Approval of the deployment is broad-based in the county, with large majorities in all demographic groups saying they approve. Upscale residents--those in the upper income and education brackets--are more likely to back the expedition.

Don’t Approve Disapprove know Total 74% 20% 6% Household income Less than $20,000 66 26 8 $20,000-$40,000 70 24 6 More than $40,000 81 15 4 Education level High school or less 65 27 8 Some college 76 18 6 College graduate 82 34 4 Troops will stay 3 months or less 81 12 7 4-6 months 86 11 3 More than 6 months 68 28 4 Casualty expectations No deaths 80 12 8 Less than 25 82 13 5 26-99 81 17 2 100 or more 63 33 4

*

Casualty Count

As in the case of mission approval, residents’ expectations of American casualties in Somalia differ demographically. Older people, as well as the most well off and best educated, are least likely to foresee a death-free operation.

No Less than 100 deaths 25 26-99 or more Total 23% 16% 14% 14% Age 18-29 years 35 17 11 11 30-44 24 17 16 14 45-59 16 12 17 20 60 and older 9 14 11 15 Household income Less than $20,000 36 10 5 14 $20,000-$40,000 22 11 11 14 More than $40,000 19 19 18 16 Education level High school or less 32 11 7 10 Some college 20 17 16 14 College graduate 19 18 17 19

Note: Remainder in each category are those who were unconvinced any would be killed or, if they thought some would be killed, were unsure how many.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 1,128 adult residents of Orange County, by telephone Dec. 4 to 8. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the county and random dialing was used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, such as men or women, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.