Analysts Don’t See New Onset of Violence in Peru

Peruvians spent an anxious Christmas wondering whether the bloody terrorism that claimed thousands of lives in the 1980s is returning to haunt this country. But experts say that the hostage-taking at the Japanese ambassador’s residence here is more likely an isolated act than a revival of a perilous insurgency.

“It’s a bold operation by a group that was on the verge of disappearing. This will not mark a resurgence of the guerrillas,” predicted Carlos Reyna, an expert on terrorism at the Lima think tank Desco.

Left-wing guerrillas released another of their VIP captives Wednesday, leaving 104 hostages still in the diplomatic compound that was seized more than a week ago during a cocktail party. The freed hostage, identified as Kenji Hirata, 34, a diplomat, looked dazed and weak as Red Cross workers pushed him from the building in an orange wheelchair.

It was unclear why he was released, although Japanese Embassy officials speculated that it was for a health problem. They said Hirata, an embassy first secretary, was being examined by doctors Wednesday evening.

The other hostages--foreign diplomats, Peruvian Cabinet ministers and even the head of the country’s anti-terrorist police--tried to forget their grim plight and celebrate Christmas.

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In a surprise gesture, the rebels allowed a Roman Catholic bishop who is reported to be close to Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori to enter the residence and pray with the captives.

The bishop, the Rev. Jose Luis Cipriani, later accompanied the ill Japanese diplomat from the residence. The captives also enjoyed a roast turkey lunch. It was a Christmas gift from Fujimori, who dispatched his chefs to deliver the food to the residence, supervised by his daughter, Keiko, 21.

But the captives were undoubtedly crestfallen not to receive their dearest Christmas wish: freedom.

In homes, open-air cafes and parks, Peruvians celebrating the summery Christmas Day worried about the hostages and the new threat of guerrilla violence to their country after years of relative calm.

“We’re spending a very tense Christmas,” said Arsenia Gomez, 50, soaking up the sunshine with her two daughters and young grandson in a park in the upscale Miraflores neighborhood. “After a long time in which we were content, there could be a resurgence” of terrorism.

Beatriz Ruiz, who was sitting in the park after a holiday party, declared: “People thought that [terrorism] was over. But I always had my doubts.”

Tens of thousands of Peruvians were killed by the radical Maoist guerrilla group Sendero Luminoso, or Shining Path, before police arrested its leader, Abimael Guzman, in 1992. Setting off car bombs, attacking the capital’s electricity supply and even hanging dogs from street lights, the radicals terrorized Peru for years, but they have been mostly inactive lately.

The guerrillas of the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, who are holding the Japanese ambassador’s residence, were always a far smaller group. But they too were considered a spent force after the arrests of several top guerrillas in recent years.

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Terrorism experts said this week that they remained convinced that Tupac has largely been broken up. They estimated that it consists of 100 or fewer guerrillas. That is a far cry from the days when Tupac occupied rural towns and had columns of fighters active in central Peru’s Huallaga jungle valley.

The group has been hard hit by arrests, internal squabbling and a decision by some guerrillas to enter a government amnesty program in recent years, experts said.

“In terms of guerrilla fronts, or [extensive] structure, they don’t have that anymore,” said Jaime Antesana, another expert on the rebels. “What they have is a special command that planned this action very well.”

Tupac guerrillas also have been unsuccessful in winning public support, experts said. Even though they are less radical than Sendero Luminoso--willing, for example, to support labor unions and left-wing parties--they have failed in efforts to form a political front.

Still, the group has shown an extraordinary ability to plan complicated operations. And the guerrillas’ very weakness may drive them to dig in their heels.

The siege at the ambassador’s residence is so important to the guerrillas that it is being directed from inside the compound by their top leader, Nestor Cerpa Cartolini.

“It’s a group that is ready to be burned alive. They are gambling their future survival” on the hostage operation, said Antesana.

The rebels are insisting on freedom for hundreds of fellow guerrillas in Peruvian jails as well as wide-ranging peace talks. Fujimori, who has made fighting terrorism a tenet of his authoritarian rule, has rejected those demands. He has said a peaceful solution can be negotiated if the rebels free all their captives and disarm.

But with no sign of that happening, foreign governments and ordinary Peruvians continued to worry Wednesday that the compound might be stormed by Peruvian security forces. Such an operation could cost dozens of lives. Some of the 400 or so hostages released in the past week have said the heavily armed rebels reported having mined the compound’s roof and garden.

“They always said they were ready to risk their lives,” said Andre Deschenes, a Canadian hostage freed Sunday.

And, with dozens of TV camera crews focusing on the elegant ambassador’s residence, from nearby rooftops and a roped-off area down the street, it is difficult to imagine how troops could surprise the rebels.

If any assault takes place, Tupac has threatened to unleash attacks in other parts of the country.

Meanwhile, Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin indicated Wednesday that he favors a military solution to the crisis. He called on the Group of Seven industrial nations to send anti-terrorist squads to Peru.

But other countries have discouraged that idea.

On Tuesday, a Uruguayan court freed two alleged Tupac guerrillas from jail. In response, the guerrillas in Lima freed a hostage, Uruguayan Ambassador Tabare Bocalandro.

While the Uruguayan government denied cutting a deal, Peru reacted angrily, withdrawing its top diplomat in the South American country. Pro-government Peruvian media blasted Uruguay’s apparent concession as “shameful.”