Chiefs Can Worry About Getting ‘Schott’ in the Eye

After watching TNT’s 24-hour replay of “A Christmas Story,” you were probably wondering whatever happened to little Ralphie, who wanted an official Red Ryder carbine-action, 200-shot, range-model air rifle with compass in stock, although warned by everyone, “You’ll shoot your eye out, kid.”

He grew up to be Marty Schottenheimer.

Facts are facts. Ralphie grew up living on Cleveland Street, and Marty began coaching seriously in Cleveland--you think that’s just a coincidence?

Obviously, somewhere along the way Ralphie changed his name to Marty, but there’s no disguising the same round earnest face, the glasses, the middle America haircut and the undying desire to make a fool of himself.

As a nerdy little kid, Ralphie/Marty dreamed of slaying Black Bart with his BB gun, and now as a, well, strait-laced adult, Ralphie/Marty dreams of knocking off Brett Favre & Co. with his Kansas City Chiefs.

And already you are laughing, because as anyone could tell Ralphie/Marty: Sooner or later, “You’ll shoot your eye out, kid.”

That’s the one thing about our hero, he never has had a losing season as a head coach, and he never has made it to the Super Bowl without buying a ticket.

Schottenheimer is 97-55-1 as a head coach in regular-season games, 5-10 in games that determine who gets to the Super Bowl, and here we go again.

Six times his teams have won division titles, setting them up for a serious run at the Super Bowl, and each time they’ve been Schottenheimered. Nine times his team has won at least 10 regular-season games, but when the games really begin to count, Schottenheimer screws it up.

Two years ago the Chiefs won 13 games, had the Arrowhead Stadium advantage through the playoffs and couldn’t get through the first round, losing to Indianapolis, 10-7, after a panicky Schottenheimer jerked season-long starting quarterback Steve Bono for seldom-used Rich Gannon and kicker Lin Elliott missed three field goals.

It’s just as he learned as a kid, shooting his BB gun for the first time and having it ricochet and hit him in the glasses--something’s always going to go wrong. This year, without playing a game, it already has.

Unlike any other coach in the playoffs, Schottenheimer had to decide who would be his starting quarterback for postseason play after completing 16 regular-season contests:

1) Schottenheimer could go with Elvis Grbac, the team’s starter at the beginning of the season who suffered a broken collarbone against Pittsburgh on Nov. 3, or, on a triple dog dare . . .

2) He could have gone with Gannon, a certified stiff who somehow led the Chiefs to five wins in six games.

“Elvis Grbac is the starting quarterback,” Schottenheimer announced in signing his playoff death warrant this year. “It’s not an issue. It’s not an issue with our football team. It’s not an issue with our coaching staff. It’s not an issue in the organization.”

Who is he kidding? It’s an issue.

Grbac, 13-5 as a starter with the Chiefs and 49ers, completed five of 14 passes for 54 yards last week in his first showing since being hurt, and already young and inexperienced, he’s not a veteran coming back to pick up where he left off.

Grbac is going to struggle in his first, or second assignment in the playoffs at a time that will ruin the Chiefs, and Kansas City is going to lose, and Schottenheimer will have shot himself in the eye.

Of course, had he selected Gannon, he would have been going with a career backup quarterback with a record of 21-21 in his nine years in the league before this season, and at the sight of the hard-charging Broncos or Steelers, undoubtedly would have collapsed.

In other words, Schottenheimer couldn’t win, can’t win, won’t win. So who will?

AFC

1. The winner of the Denver-Jacksonville game: The Broncos are motivated by revenge after falling to Jacksonville in Mile High Stadium a year ago in the playoffs, but Denver looks rattled.

The Broncos lost running back Terrell Davis a few weeks ago because of a shoulder injury, and could not pull away from the Chiefs after knocking them off to open the season. A crushing defeat in Kansas City in the final minutes six weeks ago after falling back in a prevent defense, sent the Broncos into a tailspin with losses to San Francisco and Pittsburgh.

But the Broncos have the Mile High edge on Jacksonville on Saturday, and probably will draw Kansas City in the second round with the chance to make up for their last-minute defensive gaffe. Denver has the offense that the Chiefs lack, and although Kansas City stopped the opposition from scoring a touchdown in 10 of its last 11 games in the second half, remember, Schottenheimer is coaching the Chiefs.

Jacksonville, considered by most NFL insiders capable of putting together a Dallas Cowboy-like Super Bowl run the next few years, appears to be gaining strength under quarterback Mark Brunell, who had to play through a knee injury earlier in the season. The Jaguars ran over the Broncos a year ago with running back Natrone Means, and Denver’s most glaring weakness remains its inability to stop the run.

The Jaguars and Broncos share one thing in common: the firepower to overwhelm everyone else in the AFC, and keep pace with the Packers. But they face the long odds of history, which says wild-card teams don’t win Super Bowl titles.

2. Pittsburgh: Quarterback Kordell Stewart will give the Steelers a wild ride, scoring touchdowns in bunches, and then suddenly throwing incomplete passes all over the stadium. His erratic play gives every other team in the playoffs a chance to win, and also sets them up to be crushed, if he’s on his game.

Running back Jerome Bettis, of course, will give Stewart a chance to settle down, but this is a team that lost to Philadelphia and needed overtime to beat Arizona a few weeks ago. The Steelers lost at Kansas City, 13-10, earlier this season, split with Jacksonville, defeated Denver and New England, while not playing Miami. An AFC championship game between Kansas City and Pittsburgh would be a real snoozer.

3. New England: If Drew Bledsoe breaks out of a season-long slump in big games, and if Curtis Martin recovers from a shoulder injury and gets the ball, and if Pete Carroll doesn’t clutch under pressure and if the Patriots can remember how they did it a year ago, they could be a dangerous opponent.

4. Miami: The Dolphins have no shot. Jimmy Johnson insists on forcing the run without a running back capable of controlling the game, unless Lawrence Phillips improves overnight. Imagine that: Lawrence Phillips selected Super Bowl MVP. Dan Marino spends most of his time yelling at teammates for his own inability to get them the ball. Miami hasn’t won a playoff game outside South Florida since 1974, and unless the Dolphins get lucky and get a game against Jacksonville, they’re goners again.

5. The Chiefs’ only chance of advancing is probably with their defense, but somebody has to score to win.

“I do not think there is a defensive team in the National Football League today--with maybe the exception of Kansas City--that I think is good enough to win without scoring from its offense,” Jet Coach Bill Parcells said. “Historically, if you can’t stop the run, you’re not playing good defense, because the tone of the game isn’t set by you, it’s set by the other teams.

“So look at the teams that can’t stop the run. Regardless of their record, I promise you they’re not going to win the tournament. As soon as they play one of the big boys, they’re getting their [butt] kicked. . . . Now, maybe Denver can win some shootouts, but historically, that doesn’t happen.”

No Super Bowl team in the ‘90s has allowed the opposition to gain more than 4.0 yards a carry during the regular season. The Chiefs limited the opposition to 3.9 yards a carry, Pittsburgh 3.3, Miami 4.1, Jacksonville 3.8, New England 3.7 and Denver 4.7.

“I look at Kansas City, they don’t give up many points,” Parcells said. “That shows me something. That shows me they’re a threat. Is Kansas City a high-powered offense? No. But I think they have a chance because they have a certain way to play, and you’re not going to be able to do anything about that. That’s why I think they have a better chance than they ever have.”

What does Parcells know? He’s home wondering how he’s ever going to score again with Neil O’Donnell at quarterback, and besides, the NFC wins the Super Bowl every year.

NFC

1. Green Bay: The Packers lost Desmond Howard, Edgar Bennett, Craig Newsome, Wayne Simmons, Sean Jones and Andre Rison and have the same record as they had a year ago, and appear stronger. Name any other team capable of beating Dallas, then going on the road for three consecutive wins over Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Carolina?

All they have to do is beat San Francisco in San Francisco, and if you worked and lived in Green Bay, wouldn’t you prefer playing the NFC championship game in San Francisco?

It’s impossible for the Packers to be upset in the first round of the playoffs because of their home-field advantage and the crummy opponents available to play. They could stay home for the title game if San Francisco stumbles in the first round, and wouldn’t that be fair?

2. San Francisco: The 49ers didn’t play a tough schedule, and quarterback Steve Young appears a step slower and more fragile. Dare someone predict a first-round upset with the 49ers taking a dive? Maybe Detroit?

The 49ers have won with defense this season, but Kansas City, lacking a big-time offense, shredded the 49ers. They used the emotional jolt of wide receiver Jerry Rice’s early return to beat Denver, but what will they use to get past Green Bay? A speech from Steve Mariucci.

Going with Parcells’ theory that teams that can keep their opponents under four yards a carry have the best chance to advance to the Super Bowl, San Francisco gave up 3.5 yards, Tampa Bay 3.9, New York Giants 3.4, Minnesota 4.5, Detroit 3.9 and Green Bay 4.2.

But the 49ers’ best chance of beating Green Bay, which has had problems stopping the run, is a healthy Garrison Hearst--and that remains to be seen.

3. Detroit: Can Barry Sanders make it a one-man show all the way to the Super Bowl? The Lions have an over-achieving defense, and that kind of defense usually gets pulverized in the playoffs. They have a nervous Nellie in quarterback Scott Mitchell, and that kind of quarterback usually goes belly up in the playoffs. But they have Coach Bobby Ross, who took a Charger team to Pittsburgh a few years ago and won a trip to the Super Bowl, and Ross has shown the smarts to get the ball to Sanders.

4. New York Giants: No shot. They will have to play the game of their young lives to handle the Vikings, who lost five of their last six, and have no shot to advance much further.

5. Tampa Bay: No shot. Quarterback Trent Dilfer, when healthy, is still a liability, and now playing on a sore ankle, he gives the Buccaneers almost no chance to score.

6. Minnesota: No shot. Randall Cunningham remains erratic at quarterback, and while Cris Carter and Jake Reed have the big-play capability to spring an upset, it takes consistency to win three consecutive games on the road to advance to the Super Bowl.

THE PLAYOFFS

SATURDAY

Minnesota at New York Giants

9:30 a.m., Channel 7

Jacksonville at Denver

1 p.m., Channel 7

SUNDAY

Miami at New England

9:30 a.m., Channel 4

Detroit at Tampa Bay

1 p.m., Channel 11