O.C. in 2040: Near-Majority of Latinos, Far Fewer Whites

White residents of Orange County will not only become a minority during the first half of the new century, but their actual numbers will decline as well, new state figures predict.

At the same time, according to projections released Thursday by the state Finance Department, the number of Hispanic residents will increase dramatically to make up nearly half the county population, and those of Asian descent will make significant gains.

“It will affect the whole county,” said Becky Esparza, chairwoman of the Orange County Human Relations Commission. “There’s going to be a major change.”

The Orange County projections are generally consistent with statewide trends outlined in the study released Thursday. By 2040, state analysts predict, Latinos will be the dominant ethnic group, men will slightly outnumber women and the size of the 80-something crowd will nearly quadruple.

The analysts said the state should reach a population of 58.7 million by 2040--about twice what it was in 1990.

Something similar will happen in Orange County, they said, where the population will reach more than 4 million by 2040, 40% more than at the new century’s start. But at the same time, they said, the county’s white population will decline from 1.6 million to 1.1 million--about 27% of the population--while Hispanics will increase from 845,000 to 1.9 million, making up 48% of the population in 2040.

Also starting from 2000, the number of those with Asian ancestry is predicted to grow from 374,000 to 943,000--increasing from 13% to 23% of the population.

There are a variety of reasons for the changes, according to Bill Gayk, director of the Center for Demographic Research at Cal State Fullerton.

Among the contributing factors, he said, are the aging and relatively low birth rate of the baby boom generation, which is primarily white. This is coupled with the large number of Asian and Latin American immigrants and their relatively high birthrates, Gayk said. Another factor is the propensity of baby boomers to leave Orange County upon retirement.

“These patterns have been emerging for at least the past 20 years,” Gayk said, “but they will come to fruition as we go into the next century.”

Zeke Hernandez, the Santa Ana-based deputy state director for the League of United Latin American Citizens, said he welcomed the projected changes as cultural enrichment of life in Orange County and California. “I’m optimistic,” he said. “It’s a move that can only be positive--by the time 2040 rolls around, I think, we will have overall acceptance that America is a tapestry woven by different groups. People will look at the American tapestry and say, ‘Gee, we can work together.’ ”

That hope was echoed by demographers and government officials looking at the same trends statewide.

“We are probably already at the stage where we shouldn’t talk about majority and minority populations,” said Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies at Cal State Sacramento. “We live in a plurality state. It’s a multiethnic state where, soon, no particular group will have a majority.”

State Finance Department Director Craig Brown said the huge growth projected for the nation’s most populous state means California governments will face unprecedented pressures to provide services and expand educational opportunities.

Much of the demand, he said, will fall on already overburdened transportation and water delivery systems.

The state report, by a team of Finance Department demographers and analysts, is produced every five years to comply with a legislative mandate that the agency project population trends far into the future.

Mary Heim, who directed the study, said the team looked at mortality, fertility and migration trends to help make their projections.

Looking at individual counties, the team predicted that five more counties--Contra Costa, Fresno, Kern, San Joaquin and Ventura--will have populations of 1 million or more by 2040, giving California a total of 13 counties with populations of 1 million-plus.

The fastest-growing counties, they suggested, would be Colusa, Imperial, Riverside and Madera, each doubling in population over four decades.

Only one county, San Francisco, was expected to lose population.

In Los Angeles County, Latinos were projected to become a majority by 2010 and steadily increase until they are 64% of the population in 2040. Asian Americans are also expected to increase steadily.

By contrast, whites and African Americans were expected to steadily decline, with the black population dwindling significantly by 2040. The Latino population will also remain young, while all other groups, especially whites, are expected to age considerably.

“That could change politics,” said UC Berkeley professor of political science Bruce Cain, forecasting struggles between aging populations with their own demands of the government and younger Latinos who will still need family and children’s services. “Down the road, political coalitions may reform themselves.”

Hodson, of the Cal State Fullerton center, said the disproportionate number of elderly people in later decades will put a tremendous squeeze on government resources as aging baby boomers increase their demands for services.

From a political perspective, he said, the population trends show clearly that Latinos’ impact on California elections will increase in future decades.

Times staff writers Virginia Ellis and Nick Riccardi contributed to this report.

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Growing, Changing County

Orange County’s population is projected to increase more than 40% during the first 40 years of the next century, topping 4 million. The most dramatic growth will come among Latinos, expected to account for nearly half the population by 2040. How the overall population is projected to grow and how ethnic composition should change:

Total Population Growth

Current population: 2,600,000

2000: 2,833,190

2010: 3,163,776

2020: 3,431,869

2030: 3,752,003

2040: 4,075,328

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Ethnic Composition

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2000 2040 White 55% 27% Latino 30% 48% Asian 13% 23% Black 2% 2%

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Source: California Department of Finance