Slower Passenger Growth Expected at Burbank Airport

Consultants for Burbank Airport have forecast slower passenger growth over the next 15 years than had been predicted, saying the airport won’t take major overflow from crowded Los Angeles International Airport.

The draft report, made public Wednesday, disputes a controversial plan adopted last month by the Southern California Assn. of Governments based on forecasts that twice as many passengers will use Burbank Airport in 2025.

Under the association’s forecast, which assumed that LAX would be limited to 78 million passengers a year, flight demand shifting to Burbank would double traffic there to 9.4 million passengers in the next 25 years.

By contrast, airport consultants said the increase will be to 7.2 million passengers in 2015, a 53% increase over last year. The report does not assume a controversial 14-gate terminal will be built, and does not assume any cap on passengers at LAX.

“The vision of our future is very modest growth tied to the demographics of the region,” said airport General Manager Dios Marrero.

City officials have demanded a curfew on night flights before they would agree to construction of a new terminal long sought by airport management.

Future growth, he said, will be fed primarily by consumer demand, which increases with population and the creation of more white-collar jobs in the region.

Burbank City Councilwoman Stacey Murphy said she believes the forecast of 7.2 million passengers is too high for the existing terminal. But she said it should support the need for flight restrictions being sought by the council.

“The numbers reaffirm why we need noise constraints and constraints on passengers or flights,” said Murphy, who also sits on the association’s regional council.

The report, prepared by Landrum & Brown for the Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport Authority, is part of a request to the Federal Aviation Authority for a 10 p.m.-to-7 a.m. curfew. The study looks at the impact of potential unconstrained growth over 15 years.

In a second phase of the study, consultants will forecast the economic impact of proposed noise and operational restrictions on the airport, said airport spokesman Victor Gill.

The airport consultants said their approach is “fundamentally different” from SCAG’s, which they said tries “to determine a ‘fair’ allocation of passengers to Los Angeles-region airports based on potential environmental impacts.”

The new forecast looks at such market forces as the kinds of airline services offered, existing constraints like the voluntary nighttime curfew and short runway, and projected population growth within 25 miles of the airport.

“What we are finding out is that we are becoming a much more mature market,” Marrero said, noting the number of passengers served at Burbank Airport has remained steady at 4.7 million since 1997, despite higher projections.

Ten years ago, the airport’s environmental impact study for a new, larger terminal projected 10 million passengers by 2010, a figure airport officials now concede is unrealistic.

The consultants said in the report Wednesday that a new terminal doesn’t always mean more business. Despite opening a larger terminal in September 1998, Ontario International Airport has been unable to attract more passengers, they said.

“The lack of growth at Burbank and Ontario reflects the different roles these airports play in meeting the air transportation needs of the region,” the report stated.

The report suggested that overflow business from Los Angeles International is more likely to go to Ontario or to John Wayne Airport in Orange County because they offer direct flights to the East Coast and other long-distance flights. Most of Burbank’s flights are 500 miles or less.

In all, the report projected Burbank Airport will offer an additional 31 daily flights in 2015.

Of those commercial flights, an average of one more will be flying at night in Burbank, the study said, increasing to six the average number of night flights in 2015.

Although the focus has been on commercial flights, the report projected more than twice as many private, or general aviation, flights. They are forecast to increase from 11,527 in 1999 to 86,867 in 2015.