Recall a Tossup as Successor Race Tightens

California voters are almost evenly split on whether to recall Gov. Gray Davis, and Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante retains a narrow lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the tightening race for a successor, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Likely voters in the Oct. 7 election support the ouster of Davis by 50% to 47%, with just 3% undecided, the poll found. The result, a statistical tossup, is virtually unchanged from an August Times poll.

The Democratic governor remains highly unpopular, but by at least one measure, his standing has improved: 63% of likely voters disapprove of his job performance, down from 72% in last month’s poll.

More volatile than the referendum on Davis is the contest for a replacement. Bustamante, the only well-known Democrat in the race, leads with 30%, followed by two Republicans: Schwarzenegger with 25% and state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 18%,

McClintock, a conservative under pressure from Schwarzenegger loyalists to drop out of the race, has gained ground since August, when he drew support from 12% of likely voters. Schwarzenegger’s support ticked upward three percentage points, from 22%. Bustamante dropped five points. All of the shifts, however, are near or within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

As the election approaches, many Republicans have grown fearful that McClintock and Schwarzenegger will divide their party’s vote, handing the election to Bustamante and dashing their hopes of regaining power in a state dominated by Democrats.

Still, the poll found troubles emerging for Bustamante as voters learn more about him. His unfavorable rating surged from 29% in the August poll to 50% in the new one. Rivals have been hammering Bustamante for taking more than $3 million in campaign money from Indian tribes that run casinos -- and for refusing to distance himself from a Latino student group that critics view as radical.

Poll respondent Wanda Starman, 65, a Democrat who lives in Poway, outside San Diego, said in a follow-up interview that Bustamante’s campaign fund-raising had soured her on the lieutenant governor.

“He’s just going to do what it takes to get there, and I don’t think ethics has a lot to do with it,” said Starman, who prefers political commentator Arianna Huffington as a Davis successor.

Huffington, a former Republican who is running to Bustamante’s left, is the favorite of 3% of likely voters, followed by Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo with 2%. Neither has substantially altered their standing in recent weeks. Peter V. Ueberroth, the Republican businessman who abandoned his campaign Tuesday in the middle of the survey, drew support from 8% of likely voters.

The Times Poll, supervised by polling Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 2,249 adults statewide Sept. 6-10. Among them were 1,553 registered voters, including 922 deemed likely to vote in the recall election. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three points among likely voters.

Though predicting who will turn out to vote is an imprecise science, the unprecedented nature of the recall makes it even more difficult this time. The sheer number of voters who will cast ballots, however, appeared at this point not to determine the outcome: The poll found the race was up in the air in scenarios projecting anywhere from a low to a high turnout.

Among the poll’s most striking findings was the return of immigration as an issue that voters see as important for the governor to address. The state’s fiscal troubles remain the top issue, followed by education and the economy. Immigration -- and a new law signed by Davis to grant driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants -- is fourth, listed as important by one in six voters.

Davis and Bustamante have used their support of the driver’s license law to appeal to Latinos; Schwarzenegger and McClintock have called it a threat to public safety.

Ray Bright, 82, a retired Republican aerospace mechanic from Buena Park, said Schwarzenegger’s stand against the measure was one of the key reasons he is backing the actor for governor.

“I’m not opposed to Mexicans, but the ones who come here illegally, there’s too many of them here,” Bright said.

Overall, the poll found California’s electorate in a foul mood. With the state’s economy stalled since the dot-com bust of 2000, nearly three out of four likely voters say things in California are seriously off on the wrong track.

Though the pessimism is largely bipartisan, voters split sharply along party lines when it came to the recall, with 83% of Republicans backing the ouster of Davis and 79% of Democrats against it. Independents are virtually split on the recall of Davis, but their enthusiasm has waned since August, when nearly two out of three of them supported it.

Party loyalty aside, support for the recall remains strongest among conservatives, men, and voters in the Central Valley, the Inland Empire and other parts of Southern California outside Los Angeles County. Opposition is strongest among liberals, women and voters in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area.

Senior citizens, who typically vote in heavy numbers, are split, 48% to 48%. Among moderates, once the bulwark of Davis’ political base, 43% support the recall and 53% are opposed.

The first part of the recall ballot is a yes-or-no question on whether to dump Davis as governor. To stay in office, he needs a majority vote against the recall. The second part is a list of 135 candidates vying to succeed Davis. If voters kick him out of office, the replacement candidate with the highest number of votes will take his job. Californians can pick a successor regardless of their vote on the Davis referendum.

For weeks, Davis has focused above all on bolstering his Democratic support. A renowned centrist, he has tacked leftward, supporting -- among other things -- new gay-rights legislation and the driver’s license bill, which he had previously resisted but now touts in a Spanish-language television ad.

Yet nearly one in five Democrats still favor the recall, largely because more of the state’s moderate Democrats have moved from undecided on the recall to favoring it.

And despite Davis’ close ties to organized labor, a majority of likely voters in union households supports it too.

Among the most worrisome trends for Davis: 53% of Latinos favor the recall, up from 39% last month. Dominic E. Garcia, 30, a Democrat who studies music at Sacramento City College, is leaning toward a yes vote; he blames Davis for a sharp rise in college tuition.

“It’s made a horrendous difference,” Garcia said. “He’s created a hardship for everybody.”

A big challenge for Davis is Bustamante’s presence on the ballot. Bustamante has called for a no vote on the recall, but he also has sniped at the governor and shunned any public appearances with him.

A risk for Davis is that Bustamante supporters -- particularly Latinos -- will favor the recall to benefit the lieutenant governor. The poll found that might be occurring: 27% of the Latinos who back Bustamante plan to vote yes on the recall. Among all likely voters who back Bustamante, 8% plan to vote yes on the recall.

For Bustamante, Latinos are a core constituency. Nearly half of likely Latino voters plan to vote for him, although a hearty 29% side with Schwarzenegger and 13% with McClintock. One in four Latinos say they are more likely to back Bustamante because he would be California’s first Latino governor since 1875.

Yet he has not broadened his reach significantly. He has the support of one in four whites and falls well behind Schwarzenegger in the Central Valley. While he carries a quarter of male voters, about the same as the two leading Republicans, he is aided by a gender gap, drawing the support of more than a third of women voters -- well ahead of any of his opponents.

Schwarzenegger’s close association with former Gov. Pete Wilson may have harmed his standing among Latinos, the poll suggests. More than half of likely Latino voters -- and three in 10 white voters -- say they are less inclined to vote for Schwarzenegger because Wilson and several of his top former advisors are now on the actor’s campaign team.

Wilson’s standing among many Latinos plummeted after he led the campaign for Proposition 187, the 1994 ballot measure aimed at denying public services to illegal immigrants.

“He’d basically be a little puppet for Pete Wilson’s regime of Republicans,” Garcia said.

Also problematic for Schwarzenegger is a perception that he has been too vague. More than two out of three likely voters said the action-film star had tried to avoid taking positions on important issues.

More than four out of 10 likely voters say Schwarzenegger’s decision to participate in no more than one debate made them less likely to vote for him; 55% say it makes no difference, according to the poll.

“I think he may be dodging some of the questions,” said Republican Mary Loy Canaday, 80, a retired Rancho Mirage secretary.

Likely voters are divided, 45% to 44%, on whether Schwarzenegger fits his own description as an outsider who could bring needed reform to Sacramento.

“If anyone has a chance to take a quick hit on improving the state, and not having to rely on special interests for campaign dollars, I think he, at least, has that in mind,” said Republican Bryan Turriff, 32, a Santa Monica software marketing manager.

Schwarzenegger scored highest of the candidates -- including Davis -- on the question of whether he would be a strong leader for California.

But on the question of which candidate has the best experience for the job, Davis led the field with 35%, followed by McClintock, 25%, and Bustamante, 20%. Schwarzenegger was at the bottom with 1%.

Schwarzenegger “has no experience running anything, politically, so I don’t think he’d be a good match for the state, and so far he hasn’t given any details on what he’s going to do,” said Compton Democrat Don Montenegro, 23, a computer support specialist.

Despite Schwarzenegger’s inability so far to capture more than one in four likely voters in the governor’s race, his general popularity rating has improved since August, a span in which he began television advertising. Among likely voters, 52% have a favorable impression of him, up from 46% last month, while 38% have an unfavorable view of him, down from 44%.

Men, though, have a far better impression of Schwarzenegger than women do: 58% of likely male voters view him favorably, a sentiment shared by only 45% of likely female voters.

For McClintock, a major challenge is persuading voters to elect a governor whose political profile is more conservative than the state’s as a whole.

He has promised to reduce taxes and government spending by billions of dollars, and he opposes legal abortion, gun control and gay rights -- social views that are largely at odds with the state’s.

Nearly half of likely voters say McClintock is more conservative than they are.

Bright, the Buena Park Republican who backs Schwarzenegger, said McClintock was his “real choice,” but “a true conservative can never get elected in this state; the state is too damn liberal.”

But 46% of likely voters have a favorable impression of McClintock, twice the percentage that views him unfavorably. And 54% of likely voters agree that McClintock is straightforward and says what he believes, even if it is unpopular.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Recall Davis?

Likely voters were asked how they would decide on recalling Gov. Gray Davis if the election were held now. There has been little change since The Times asked the same question in an August poll.

*--* Now Aug. 16-21 Yes, recall Davis 50% 50% No, do not recall Davis 47% 45% Don’t know 3% 5%

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Source: L.A. Times Poll

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

The recall election

Q: If the election were being held today and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote?

*--* Now Aug. 16-21 Cruz Bustamante 30% 35% Arnold Schwarzenegger 25% 22% Tom McClintock 18% 12% Peter Ueberroth * 8% 7% Arianna Huffington 3% 3% Peter Miguel Camejo 2% 1% Bill Simon ** 6% Larry Flynt ** 1% Others (volunteered) 1% - Wouldn’t vote 8% 4% Don’t know 5% 9%

*--*

* Ueberroth announced his retirement from the race on Tuesday, while this survey was in progress.

** Simon and Flynt were listed as candidates when the question was asked in the August poll but not in the current poll; Simon dropped out of the race Aug. 23.

Q: Those who named a candidate were asked: How certain are you to vote for your candidate?

*--* Bustamante Schwarzenegger McClintock voters voters voters Definitely 69% 58% 46% Probably 16% 18% 19% Still considering 15% 24% 35%

*--*

Q: What one issue or problem in California would you say is most important for the governor to address?

(Accepted up to two replies. Top four responses shown.)

Budget deficit: 34%

Education: 26%

Economy: 21%

Immigration: 11%

Q: Are you satisfied with the choices for governor or do you wish there were other candidates to choose from?

Satisfied: 65%

Wish there were others: 27%

Q: What is your impression of ...

*--* Now Now Now Aug. 16-21 Aug. 16-21 Aug. 16-21 Favor- Unfavor- Don’t Favor- Unfavor- Don’t able able know able able know Schwarzenegg 52% 38% 10% 46% 44% 10% er McClintock 46% 23% 31% 34% 21% 45% Bustamante 41% 50% 9% 48% 29% 23% Davis 39% 60% 1% 33% 65% 2%

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Q: Here are some phrases which could apply to any of the candidates or to Gov. Davis. Do you think each applies more to Cruz Bustamante, or to Arnold Schwarzenegger, or to Tom McClintock, or to Peter Ueberroth,* or to Gray Davis?

*--* Bustamante Schwarzenegger McClintock Davis He has the best 20% 1% 25% 35% experience for the job He will be a strong 14% 23% 20% 18% leader He will reduce the 7% 42% 8% 5% influence of special interests in Sacramento

*--*

* Ueberroth responses not shown; he has dropped out of the race.

Q: Here are some comments that have been made about several of the candidates and about Gov. Davis. Do you agree or disagree with each comment?

*--* Agree Disagree Schwarzenegger is an outsider who could 45% 44% bring needed reform to Sacramento Schwarzenegger has tried to avoid taking 67% 23% public positions on important issues Bustamante is in touch with the needs 43% 39% and problems of average Californians Bustamante has been too much a part 46% 43% of Gray Davis’ administration to solve the problems in Sacramento McClintock is straightforward and says 54% 6% what he believes even if it is unpopular McClintock is too politically conservative to have 44% 25% a realistic chance of being elected governor Davis increased money for California’s schools 44% 40% and deserves some of the credit for improvement in student test scores Davis spends too much time raising campaign funds 58% 27% and not enough time working on the state’s problems

*--*

Q: If Bustamante becomes governor, he will be the first Latino governor of California since 1875. Does knowing that make you more or less likely to vote for him?

*--* All likely voters Non-Latino whites Latinos More likely 10% 7% 25% No difference 85% 87% 73% Less likely 4% 5% 2%

*--*

Q: Former Gov. Pete Wilson and many of the top advisors from his administration are now advising Schwarzenegger. Does knowing that make you more or less likely to vote for Schwarzenegger?

*--* All likely voters Non-Latino whites Latinos More likely 13% 15% 18% No difference 49% 53% 31% Less likely 37% 31% 51%

*--*

Notes: All results shown are among likely voters. Results in vote questions include those who are ‘leaning’ toward voting a particular way. ‘ - ‘ indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 2,249 California adults, including 1,553 registered voters and 922 voters considered likely to turn out on Oct. 7th. The survey was conducted by telephone Sept. 6-10. An additional random sample of the state was also conducted over the same period and added to the sample, which brought the total number of Latino likely voters in the survey to 121. The entire sample of adults was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education as well as to registration figures provided by the secretary of state. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is 3 percentage points in either direction, and among Latinos it is 9 percentage points. Surveys conducted during busy campaign seasons are also subject to influence by news events; for example, Peter Ueberroth retired from the race on Tues. while this survey was being conducted. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Telephone numbers for Times Poll samples are randomly selected from the set of all telephone exchanges in the state, which allows all Calif. residents equal chance of being contacted without regard to listed or unlisted numbers or their presence on registered voter lists. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. All racial and ethnic groups are proportionally represented in this survey even when there may not be enough in the sample to be specifically mentioned.

Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

How they’ll vote

How various subgroups of likely voters say they intend to vote on recalling Gov. Gray Davis. The column of percentages at left shows what share of all likely voters each subgroup represents.

*--* % of all Will vote Will vote likely voters yes no 100% All likely voters 50% 47% 45 Registered Democrats 19% 79% 16 Registered independents 50% 47% 39 Registered Republicans 83% 15% 34 Liberals 16% 82% 26 Moderates 43% 53% 38 Conservatives 85% 13% 25 Liberal Democrats 10% 89% 18 Moderate Democrats 30% 66% 11 Moderate Republicans 68% 28% 26 Conservative Republicans 90% 9% 71 Non-Latino whites 54% 43% 11 Latinos 53% 41% 51 Men 57% 41% 49 Women 43% 54% 28 Union household 51% 45% 72 Not union household 49% 49% 27 Ages 18-44 63% 34% 50 Ages 45-64 44% 54% 23 Ages 65 and older 48% 48% 24 Los Angeles County 38% 58% 32 Rest of Southern California 63% 36% 15 Bay Area 27% 70% 16 Central Valley 64% 32% 13 Rest of Northern California 50% 47%

*--*

Notes: Includes those who say they are ‘leaning’ toward voting yes or no. Independents includes members of minor parties. Numbers do not total 100% because some voter groups and ‘Don’t know’ responses are not shown.

Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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Jill Darling Richardson, associate director of The Times Poll, and Claudia Vaughn, the poll’s data management supervisor, contributed to this report.