‘Cowboys & Aliens’ is expected to stuff ‘Smurfs’

Summer’s big-budget sequels and superhero flicks are all in theaters already. But the end of Hollywood’s most lucrative season will bring some of its riskiest bets, none of which have the kind of built-in awareness among young people that have helped to make the latest “Harry Potter” and “Transformers” mega-hits.

The high-stakes final month of summer kicks off this weekend with “Cowboys & Aliens,” one of the year’s most expensive movies and one based on a graphic novel so obscure that it’s new to virtually everyone. Its release will be followed in the next few weeks by “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” and “Conan the Barbarian,” both based on decades-old brands that have little resonance among the people under 30 who usually drive big opening weekends.

Non-branded movies can do well in late summer, as evidenced last year by the hit “Inception.” But this time of year is better known for cheaper fare like “Dinner for Schmucks” and “Charlie St. Cloud,” which opened on the last weekend of July last year.

And so far this year, nine of the top 10 movies at the box office have been sequels or based on long-running comic books.

“One of the things we knew about this summer is you have to step aside and wait your turn while those other big movies open,” said Michael Moses, co-president of marketing for Universal Pictures, the domestic distributor for “Cowboys.” “Young guys in particular are easily distracted by the biggest thing immediately coming.”

That has been apparent in pre-release polling for “Cowboys” and “Apes,” according to people with access to the data but are not authorized to speak on the record. Both pictures are generating the most interest among older men, while younger men and women lag behind. (“Conan,” set for release Aug. 19, is not yet on such tracking surveys).

Young women appear uninterested in “Cowboys & Aliens,” a melding of the male-skewing western and science-fiction genres that stars Daniel Craig, 43, and Harrison Ford, 69.

As a result, the film is headed for an opening of $40 million to $50 million, pretty good but not great for such an expensive picture. Universal, DreamWorks SKG and Relativity Media spent about $163 million to make the movie.

Moses noted that by opening late in the summer, “Cowboys” may play longer in theaters: “It’s more of an open playing field if the film finds traction because there aren’t mega-titles opening every weekend anymore.”

However, 20th Century Fox hopes that it has the last big movie of the summer with “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” which opens Aug. 5. Although director Tim Burton made a new version of the film in 2001, the apes who take over Earth are still best known from the 1968 original starring the late Charlton Heston.

“I think most people know the title, which gets us in the door,” said Emma Watts, Fox’s president of production. “Then the great thing is that we have a young cast and amazing effects.”

“Apes” stars James Franco, “Slumdog Millionnaire’s” Freida Pinto, and “Harry Potter’s” Tom Felton.

Independent studio Lionsgate’s ambitions for “Conan” are more modest than the other two pictures, but the studio faces similar hurdles. Marketing President Tim Palen noted that while there have been recent comic books and licensed products, most current “Conan” fans are old enough to have seen the 1982 cult hit starring Arnold Schwarzenegger.

“Those people are givens, but with the average 18-year-old you’re only safe if you assume they don’t know anything about ‘Conan,’ ” he said.

Launching against “Cowboys” this weekend is “The Smurfs,” Sony Pictures’ 3-D live action/computer-animation hybrid. The tiny blue creatures were created by a Belgian comic book artist in 1958 but became popular in the U.S. in the 1980s thanks to a popular Saturday morning cartoon program.

Although few of today’s children know the characters, Sony is following the path set by the hit live-action/animated “Alvin and the Chipmunks” films. The two “Alvin” movies, based on the animated musical trio created in 1958, each grossed more than $350 million worldwide. However last year the similar “Yogi Bear” brought in a less impressive $202 million and “Marmaduke” was a flop with only $84 million.

“Smurfs,” which cost $110 million to make, is projected to have a decent opening of about $30 million.

Warner Bros.’ adult comedy “Crazy, Stupid, Love,” meanwhile, is expected to open to a modest $15 million. The film, which stars Carell and Ryan Gosling, cost about $45 million to make.

ben.fritz@latimes.com

amy.kaufman@latimes.com