Movie award predictions in animated feature and craft categories
A handful of movies — “The Great Gatsby,” “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” — are poised to dominate the craft categories, while Disney’s “Frozen” seems like the front-runner set to win animated feature and original song. Here’s how the races currently stand:
ANIMATED FEATURE
“Frozen”
“The Wind Rises”
“The Croods”
“Despicable Me 2”
“Monsters University”
Bubbling under: “Ernest & Celestine,” “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2,” “Epic,” “A Letter to Momo”
Analysis: Before “Frozen” opened last month, conventional wisdom had this Oscar going to the great Hayao Miyazaki for “The Wind Rises,” the movie he says will be his last. But “Wind,” a fictionalized bio of Zero airplane designer Jiro Horikoshi, isn’t one of Miyazaki’s more accessible movies, nor is it one of his best. And because Miyazaki had already won this category in 2003 for “Spirited Away,” sentiment won’t be a deciding factor. “Wind” will still make it in, though, perhaps pushing aside the lovely friendship story “Ernest & Celestine,” the French movie distributed by GKIDS. The question: In a year dominated by decent commercial hits like “Despicable Me 2,” can there be room for two animated art-house movies?
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Great Gatsby”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Oz the Great and Powerful”
“Gravity”
Bubbling under: “Saving Mr. Banks,” “American Hustle,” “Her,” “Inside Llewyn Davis”
Analysis: “Gatsby” might not be a factor for best picture or in acting, but it figures to clean up in several craft categories, particularly for the lavish work done here by Oscar winner Catherine Martin. “12 Years’ ” period plantation sets are an obvious choice, and branch voters will likely follow precedent, nominating spectacles like “The Hobbit” and “Oz.” “Gravity” is a less conspicuous choice (and may well be bumped by the ‘70s swagger of “Hustle”), but its finely detailed spaceship interiors contributed much to the film’s sense of authenticity.
COSTUME DESIGN
“The Great Gatsby”
“12 Years a Slave”
“American Hustle”
“Oz the Great and Powerful”
“The Invisible Woman”
Bubbling under: “Saving Mr. Banks,” “The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug,” “Lee Daniels’ The Butler,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “The Lone Ranger”
Analysis: “Gatsby’s” Martin again leads the field, which includes several impeccably dressed period entries (“Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Saving Mr. Banks” and “The Butler” among them) that could find a spot over the ostentatious “Oz.” Ralph Fiennes’ Dickens tale, “The Invisible Woman,” has the lowest profile of the group, but its costume designer, Michael O’Connor, is a branch favorite, having won an Oscar for “Jane Eyre” and a nomination for “The Duchess.” Look for him to land another nod.
TIMELINE: The Academy Awards through the years
FILM EDITING
“Gravity”
“Captain Phillips”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”
“Rush”
Bubbling under: “American Hustle,” “Nebraska,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Lee Daniels’ The Butler,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “All Is Lost”
Analysis: The category closely mirrors the best picture nominations, but there is precedent for recognition even if the movie doesn’t make it in. (Most recent example: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter won the Oscar for the non-nominated “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.”) That could bode well for the superb work Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill did throughout Ron Howard’s race movie, “Rush.”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“12 Years a Slave”
“Lee Daniels’ The Butler”
Bubbling under: “Rush,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “American Hustle,” “The Great Gatsby,” “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
Analysis: Peter Jackson’s Tolkien movies have always been nominated, and the second “Hobbit” movie shouldn’t buck the trend. “12 Years” required both aging makeup and work that would convey the physical horrors of slavery. And “The Butler,” with its long time span, had the aging demands as well as the challenge of making John Cusack look a little like Richard Nixon.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“Gravity”
“12 Years a Slave”
“Saving Mr. Banks”
“The Book Thief”
“Philomena”
Bubbling under: “Rush,” “Captain Phillips,” “Monsters University,” “Her,” “Frozen”
Analysis: This could be a big year for Hans Zimmer, who provided distinctive scores for both “12 Years” and “Rush.” And while “The Book Thief” didn’t fare well with critics, composer John Williams probably will rate a 49th(!) nomination, and given its understated excellence, few will begrudge it.
INTERACTIVE: Best and worst Oscar moments since 2008
FOR THE RECORD:
Movie awards predictions: In the Dec. 10 Envelope section, the Gold Standard column about movie awards predictions referred to the U2 song in “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” as “Ordinary Day.” The song’s title is “Ordinary Love.” —
SONG
“Let It Go” (“Frozen”)
“Young and Beautiful” (“The Great Gatsby”)
“In the Middle of the Night” (“Lee Daniels’ The Butler”)
“Ordinary Day” (“Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”)
“The Moon Song” (“Her”)
Bubbling under: “You and I Ain’t Nothin’ No More” (“Lee Daniels’ The Butler”), “Atlas” (“The Hunger Games: Catching Fire”), “Happy” (“Despicable Me 2”), “So You Know What It’s Like” (“Short Term 12”), “Sweeter Than Fiction” (“One Chance”), “Amen” (“All Is Lost”), “I See Fire” (“The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug”), “Rise Up” (“Epic”)
Analysis: Young girls everywhere have already memorized and are proudly belting out “Frozen’s” power ballad “Let It Go.” (We’re partial to snowman Olaf’s sweet, naive “In Summer.”) Meanwhile, Lana Del Rey’s somber “Young and Beautiful” scored with critics and those predisposed to warbly song stylings. Beyond that, there are original songs from U2, Taylor Swift, Coldplay and Beyoncé, though none of them have quite etched themselves in the public’s consciousness. Karen O’s lullaby, “The Moon Song,” is lovely and could prove the exception once “Her” arrives in theaters.
SOUND EDITING
“Gravity”
“Captain Phillips”
“All Is Lost”
“Rush”
“12 Years a Slave”
Bubbling under: “Lone Survivor,” “Man of Steel,” “Pacific Rim,” “Iron Man 3,” “Star Trek Into Darkness,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug,” “The Great Gatsby”
Analysis: “Gravity” stands to win both sound categories, though the field sports several worthy contenders. Branch voters can’t resist the clang-clang, so “Man of Steel” or “Pacific Rim” (or both) could win nominations over the subtler work contained in “All Is Lost” or “12 Years.”
SOUND MIXING
“Gravity”
“Captain Phillips”
“Rush”
“All Is Lost”
“Lone Survivor”
Bubbling under: “Man of Steel,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug,” “The Great Gatsby,” “Pacific Rim,” “Star Trek Into Darkness,” “Iron Man 3”
Analysis: Music-heavy movies do well here, so “Llewyn Davis” might win a nom over “All Is Lost” or “Lone Survivor.”
MORE OSCAR COVERAGE
WINNING BALLOT: A list of the 2013 winners
TIMELINE: Academy Awards through the years
FOR THE RECORD:
Movie awards predictions: In the Dec. 10 Envelope section, the Gold Standard column about movie awards predictions referred to the U2 song in “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom” as “Ordinary Day.” The song’s title is “Ordinary Love.” —
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