See ya later, California

Hope you enjoyed the party, because you may not be invited back in November.

The upshot of the most hotly contested California primary since bell-bottoms were in -- the first time -- was a hardening of the state’s Democratic tilt and a proportionate drop in Republican support here.

Add in the ability of independent voters to cast ballots in the Democratic primary Tuesday -- allowed by party leaders who believe those voters will stay loyal in November. With all that, it is at best questionable whether California will be a contested state in the general election.

Democrats, easy winners of the last four presidential elections here, laugh off the suggestion that the state will be seriously contested come fall.

“If the Democratic nominee has to spend a dime in California, we’re going to lose the election,” said Ben Austin, a Democratic strategist backing Barack Obama.

Even Republicans say that for California to be, in November, the focus it has been in February would require a confluence of events: John McCain as the nominee, character as the defining issue and a decision that the cost of running a campaign here is worth the exceptional expense it would take.

“To an objective observer, the trend is not the GOP’s friend in California,” said Don Sipple, a Republican veteran of national and statewide campaigns.

A look at registration figures bears him out: Democrats gained four voters in the last two months to every one gained by Republicans. That left Democrats at just under 43% of the registered voters. Republicans note that is a historic low. The trouble is that Republicans are lower: just over 33% of registered voters. (The fastest-growing segment, independents, constituted 19.37%.)

A survey of 12 key counties, moreover, showed the difficulties facing Republicans. In all but one, Democratic registration inched up between September and the close of registration Jan. 22. The exception was bellwether San Benito County, where Democratic registration fell by a tenth of a percent.

In all of the counties, the percentage of voters who are registered Republicans dropped. That included counties like Riverside, where the GOP has hoped that growth in the spreading subdivisions would be their bulwark against the preponderance of Democrats in the cities. There, Republican registration dropped by almost a point. Other declines came in Kern, Fresno, Orange, San Bernardino, Sacramento, San Diego and San Benito counties.

Overall, as the presidential campaign heated up through the fall and winter, Democrats gained almost 150,000 voters statewide, while Republicans lost a little more than 25,000.

State Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring said that while the registration numbers have gone Democratic, that is only one factor in determining the future.

“The world is not run by those who are registered, but by those who show up,” Nehring said. “When you dig down, where Democrats have a registration advantage, Republicans have a turnout advantage.”

Presidential elections always begin with campaigns pledging to run hard in every state. But, money being what it is, the targets of opportunity are gradually narrowed under a formula that weighs the electoral votes that are in play versus how much it would cost to win them.

In recent years, California has lost out either on the first question or the second: Can the Republican nominee win here? Isn’t it cheaper to get those electoral votes somewhere else?

The result: In each of the last four presidential campaigns, Democrats won by double-digit margins.

Central to the question of whether they do it again will be independent voters. Since September, their ranks have gained almost 63,000 voters.

They are not averse to Republican candidates, having supported Arnold Schwarzenegger in his two elections. Those voters are seen as more entranced with hard-to-measure attributes like character and leadership than are party regulars, who tend to put weight on obedience to orthodoxy.

Independents’ presence gives Republicans hope, but there is a consensus that they will vote Republican only if McCain is the nominee. McCain, the former prisoner of war in Vietnam who has made his name as a burr under the saddle of official Washington, is far more in their mold than other recent candidates.

“He does not carry the baggage that Republican candidates carried before,” said Tony Quinn, a GOP demographer. “He’s an environmentalist; he’s not dripping with Southern morality like George Bush was.”

McCain spent time last week campaigning at a solar energy firm with Schwarzenegger; he alone of the GOP candidates has talked at length about global warming. His residence in Arizona gives McCain an ease with Western issues, Republicans believe.

As for Mitt Romney, he ran as a moderate Republican when seeking the governorship of Massachusetts, but in this campaign has hewn to strict conservative positions.

He has hammered McCain’s more moderate position on immigration, which has helped him among Republicans in the primary but would work against him as a general election nominee.

“Romney fits in with only the very conservative Republicans here,” Quinn said. “That’s his base, and he’s finally coalesced them. But he has absolutely no chance of expanding beyond that. The demographics of California don’t agree with Romney.”

More than anything, GOP hopes of having a competitive race here in the fall rest with the Democratic choice. Most see Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Republicans’ favorite Democrat, for the unity she would impose among discontented Republicans.

Unity, GOP state Chairman Nehring said, “is defined as Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Hillary Rodham Clinton running the federal government.”

Obama is feared somewhat more by Republican strategists because of his appeal among the independent voters; he is seen as more likely than Clinton to deny independents to the Republican nominee, a move that would doom the GOP.

Democrats, however, look to begin the general election more thrilled with their nominee -- whoever it is -- than Republicans.

McCain was running radio ads in California on election day apologizing to Republicans for pushing immigration reform, a sign of the patching up he needs to do within the party.

Exit polls in California, meanwhile, showed that Democrats were overwhelmingly pleased at the prospect of either Obama or Clinton as the nominee -- regardless of which one they voted for.

The enthusiasm gap will make overcoming the Democratic registration advantage even harder.

As the primary election ended, however, Republicans were putting their faith in the roller-coaster nature of the campaign thus far.

“It’s too early to tell, it really is,” Nehring said. “Nothing about this campaign has been predictable.”

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cathleen.decker@latimes.com

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

California voters weigh in

In exit polls, both Democrats and Republicans ranked the economy highest among the most important issues facing the country.

Democratic primary

Q: Which candidate is most qualified to be commander-in-chief?

Clinton:51%

Obama: 33%

Other: 16%

Q: Which candidate would be most likely to unite the country if elected president?

Obama: 48%

Clinton: 40%

Other: 12%

Q: Which of these issues is the most important facing the country?

*--* -- All Democratic Clinton Obama -- primary voters voters voters The economy 45% 49% 42% The war in Iraq 32 26 39 Health care 19 22 15 *--*

Q: Which of these candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted today?

*--* -- All Democratic Clinton Obama -- primary voters voters voters Can bring needed change 49% 31% 71% Has the right experience 23 41 3 Cares about people like me 14 14 11 Has best chance in November 10 10 10 *--*

Q: No matter how you voted today, would you be:

*--* -- All Democratic Clinton Obama -- primary voters voters voters

Satisfied only if Clinton is the nominee 22% 42% 1%

Satisfied only if Obama is the nominee 18 2 38

Satisfied if either one is the nominee 53 53 56

Dissatisfied if either one is the nominee 5 2 4 *--*

Q: In deciding your vote for president today, was the gender/race of the candidate:

*--* -- Race Gender Single most important factor 6% 8% One of several important factors 11 15 Not an important factor 82 76 *--*

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Republican primary

Q: Which candidate is most qualified to be commander-in-chief?

McCain: 46%

Romney: 30%

Huckabee: 9%

Other: 15%

Q: Which candidate is most qualified to manage the economy?

Romney: 46%

McCain: 27%

Huckabee: 10%

Other: 17%

Q: Which of these issues is the most important facing the country?

*--* -- All Republican McCain Romney Huckabee -- primary voters voters voters voters

The economy 33% 39% 29% 31% Illegal immigration 30 18 43 20 The war in Iraq 20 24 11 24 Terrorism 15 15 14 19 *--*

Q: Which of these candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted today?

*--* -- All Republican McCain Romney Huckabee -- primary voters voters voters voters Shares my values 42% 26% 49% 60% Has the right experience 26 33 29 5 Says what he believes 21 23 14 32 Has best chance in November 8 13 6 1 *--*

Q: Should most illegal immigrants working in the U.S. be:

*--* -- All Republican McCain Romney Huckabee -- primary voters voters voters voters Offered a chance to apply 25% 28% 20% 32% for citizenship Allowed to stay as 34 41 26 31 temporary workers Deported to country they 40 28 53 35 came from *--*

Q: Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?

*--* -- All Republican McCain Romney Huckabee -- primary voters voters voters voters Yes 35% 26% 32% 72% No 65 74 68 28 *--*

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Numbers are based on preliminary exit poll results. Percentages may not add up to 100% where all categories not shown or because of rounding.

How the poll was conducted: The National Election Pool Exit Poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. Members of the pool are ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC. 971 voters who cast ballots in the California Republican primary and 1811 in the California Democratic primary were interviewed as they exited 40 polling places. The polling places are a stratified probability sample of the state. In addition, approximately 300 absentee and/or early voters were interviewed in a pre-election telephone poll; results from the phone poll were combined with results from the exit poll. The combination reflects approximately the correct proportion of absentee voters and election day voters.

Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll