Let's look at the SAG winners and size up their Oscar prospects in the new light:
History: The movie that won this award went on to win the best picture Oscar nine of 18 years. (The ensemble prize wasn't awarded in 1994, the SAG Awards' first year.)
Will history repeat itself?: If "American Hustle" goes on to win the Producers Guild award Sunday night, then the odds will tilt heavily in its favor to win the Oscar as well. (Because the PGA uses the same preferential ballot as the academy, it's a more accurate Oscar indicator. The last six PGA winners have gone on to win the Oscar, coinciding with the academy's expansion of the best picture ballot.)
As for its SAG win, "Hustle" clearly has a lot of love among actors, what with its four acting Oscar nominations too. Safe to say "Hustle" writer-director
The winner: Matthew McConaughey,
History: SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 15 of 19 times, including the last nine years. (The last SAG lead actor winner not to take the Oscar:
Will history repeat itself: Yes. Coming into the nominations, the lead actor race was crowded and competitive enough to leave out several deserving contenders, including
History: SAG and the academy have matched 13 of 19 years.
Will history repeat itself?: Absolutely. Has Blanchett lost anything this year? Anything? No? Not even her marbles through this red-carpet circus? We didn't think so.
History: SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar 11 times in 19 years.
Will history repeat itself?: Yes. Leto has now won SAG, the Golden Globe and awards from the Los Angeles and New York film critics groups. Academy voters will follow suit, which was a given even before the Oscar nominations were announced. The strong showing of "Dallas Buyers Club" across the board -- in addition to McConaughey and Leto, the movie won Oscar noms for picture, editing, screenplay and makeup and hair -- indicates a broad level of support throughout the academy for the film. There's no way Leto won't be among the beneficiaries
History: SAG winner has gone on to take the Oscar 12 of 18 times. (
Will history repeat itself?: Yes. Nyong'o has carried herself with grace and dignity throughout the awards season and is arguably the most deserving of the nominees for her stunning turn as Patsey, the slave on the receiving end of obsession and cruelty from
While Lawrence, at 23, is the youngest three-time acting Oscar nominee, she just won an Academy Award last year for