El Niño relief for drought-stricken California? Chances slip to 65%

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Brandon Arthur, 10, crawls out of the gooey muddy tailings left by his father Steve Arthur’s water well drill site in Terra Bella. (Bob Chamberlin / Los Angeles Times)

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Sunrise illuminates previous signs of life amid the dry, steep banks due to drought conditions at Lake Shasta. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Puddles of water are all that remain in some areas of San Gabriel River’s West Fork in the Angeles National Forest. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Pastel colors at dawn reveal a receding Lake Cachuma in Santa Barbara County. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Dusk falls as a lone boater heads out on Lake Shasta near the Lake Shasta Dam. Amid serious drought conditions, Lake Shasta is at only 37% of capacity and is likely to go lower. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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The Bridge Bay Marina at Lake Shasta reveals signs of serious drought conditions. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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An egret searches for food in a nearly dry canal near Red Bluff in Northern California. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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A passing boat is dwarfed by the steep, barren banks of Lake Oroville in Northern California, whose water level has fallen 160 feet. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Pier pilings reach high out of the water at dusk amid extremely low water levels at Castaic Lake Recreation Area. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Owner Elaine Newton walks with her daughter Ashleigh Newton along the family-owned Rancheria Marina docks and boat ramps that are now idle, at Huntington Lake due to historically low water levels caused by the drought. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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Chalked initials and the date mark the exposed wall of one of the dams revealed as the water level fell amid the continuing drought at Huntington Lake in Fresno County. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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The Bridge Bay Marina at Lake Shasta reveals signs of serious drought conditions June 22. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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A nearly-empty boat house and dock are dwarfed by land at the drought-stricken Lake Isabella on July 12. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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A couple strolls with their dog along a dusty shoreline that is usually under water at Huntington Lake on July 10. Water is at the lowest level that many in the tiny High Sierra community in Fresno County can remember. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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The water level at Huntington Lake is at the lowest that many in the tiny High Sierra community in Fresno County can remember. Most of the boat docks around the lake are now high and very dry. (Mark Boster / Los Angeles Times)

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Low water at Huntington Lake during the drought leaves a bridge of land to the island. Kayaking to the island is usually part of a summer visit. (Diana Marcum / Los Angeles Times)

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An observation deck over the lake is left high and dry as the water level has dropped 50 percent in Huntington Lake this summer. (Diana Marcum / Los Angeles Times)

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Severe drought conditions are evident as hundreds of house boats are dwarfed by steep banks that show the water level down 160 feet from the high water mark at Bidwell Canyon Marina on Lake Oroville on June 21. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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Looking toward the San Gabriel River from East Fork Road north of Azuza in February, the San Gabriel reservoir can be seen in the far distance where it has receded more than a mile. (Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times)

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Secret Service agents look over a dry farm field as President Barack Obama speaks to media about the drought situation in California in February. (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

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A boat launch at Folsom Lake sits along the banks of the drought-ridden lake in February. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

By Veronica Rocha

Aug. 7, 2014 1:31 PM PT

The latest long-term forecast shows the chances of a wet El Niño weather pattern bringing drought relief to California starting this fall has decreased to about 65%, and if it does arrive it will probably be weaker than originally expected.

If an El Niño does develop, it should emerge by October and peak during late fall and early winter, according to the Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Forecasters previously put the chances of an El Niño forming during the same period at 80%.

Higher-than-average sea surface temperatures continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific during July, forecasters say.

The strongest El Niño events in California occurred in 1983 to 1984 and 1993 to 1994, Paul Iniguez, science and operations officer for the National Weather Service in Hanford, Calif., said last week.

In a weak to moderate El Niño, he said weather conditions are unpredictable and a “mixed bag.”

For breaking news in Los Angeles and throughout California, follow @VeronicaRochaLA. She can be reached at veronica.rocha@latimes.com.