Deficit-reduction math is all about counting congressional noses

As congressional leaders and the White House work to strike a historic deficit-reduction deal, the debate is not over how to cut trillions of dollars, but rather what combination of proposals will deliver the votes needed to pass Congress.

Negotiators are quickly finding that in today’s Congress — particularly in the highly polarized House of Representatives — almost any move that attracts one group of votes repels others.

President Obama and House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) have pushed for a so-called “grand bargain” that would reduce long-term deficits by $4 trillion or more over a decade. They believe that a package of historic dimensions might be easier for some members to support than a smaller deal.

But as congressional leaders tested that proposition Friday, they found obstacles at nearly every turn.

On the conservative flank, Boehner is likely to lose dozens of Republicans who simply will not vote for various reasons.

On the left, the Progressive Caucus — one-third of all House Democrats —reject any package that cuts deeply into the federal safety net. Factions in the Senate are similarly divided.

That leaves only 300 or fewer House members — Democrats and Republicans — who conceivably might support a deal, and of those, negotiators must win over nearly four out of five.

“It’s not like there’s an imminent deal about to happen,” Boehner said Friday. “I don’t think this problem,” he said — holding his hands wide apart — “has narrowed at all in the last several days.”

Democratic leaders also privately expressed skepticism a large deal could be reached in the few weeks remaining. Congress faces an Aug. 2 deadline to raise the debt limit or risk default on federal obligations. Redoubling their effort, House leaders cancelled a recess the week of July 18. Congressional Republicans have insisted that in return for raising the debt ceiling, they need a deal to reduce long-term deficits, though their own budget requires increasing the debt limit.

Negotiators will work through the weekend and congressional leaders will attend a rare Sunday meeting with President Obama to see if they have the makings of a deal.

Obama has appealed to lawmakers to “do something big.” A similar appeal is being used by GOP leaders to nudge their reluctant rank and file. But such overtures are not enough to woo conservatives, including tea party-aligned freshmen. More than 30 conservative Republicans in the House and 12 in the Senate have signed a pledge not to vote for the debt-ceiling increase unless it includes a balanced-budget amendment — an unlikely prospect.

Freshman Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.) called the $4-trillion package under consideration “not even close to getting what we think is necessary.”

At the White House this week, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the House majority leader, argued against the bigger deal.

Any deal of this size would require new revenue, experts said, and Obama wants to close tax loopholes for corporations and wealthy Americans.

Tax proposals would cost Republican votes, but pick up Democrats who want to soften the impact of spending cuts.

But among many liberals, even tax revenues may not be enough to offset proposed cuts to Social Security, Medicare and basic government services. House Democrats fumed during a closed-door meeting Friday.

“Progressives will vote no en masse,” said Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), the Progressive Caucus whip.

In the Senate, several swing-state Democrats are considered vulnerable in next year’s election. For them, backing tax hikes would be politically difficult. “Spending cuts must be the central focus,” said Sen. Ben Nelson, who is up for reelection in Nebraska.

lmascaro@tribune.com