Racing! Preakness countdown starts with entrants in flux

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we give you a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Before we get to our handicapping lesson, let’s get you caught up on the latest Preakness developments. And most of the news comes from Louisville, not Baltimore.

And speaking of Baltimore in general, and Pimlico is particular, the track cancelled its racing after the fifth race on Friday. Too much rain and bad visibility. However, as of now, the forecast is clear for next weekend. Remember last year when we couldn’t see the far turn as the Preakness horses entered the fog?

I, along with a few other select journalists, were watching along with Bob Baffert and his family on a tiny television near the saddling area. (OK, maybe I’m not “select” but Bob knows how powerful you guys are, so I’m in the club.) There was a second horse in the race, Quip, who had the same ownership interests as Justify, so the silks were the same.

Bob joked about making sure he had the right horse but he knew he had the right horse, and, eventually the Triple Crown. Sorry, got a little off topic.

So, there are seven possible Preakness horses training at Churchill Downs before taking the short trip to Baltimore.

Owendale and Warrior’s Charge, for trainer Brad Cox, along with Signalman, for Kenny McPeek, are all scheduled to breeze on Saturday.

The other horses transitioning at Churchill are Improbable, War of Will and Bodexpress, from the Derby, and Oaklawn Invitational winner Laughing Fox.

We’ll see how the field develops.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first race at Santa Anita. Rob, time to impart some wisdom.

“A new day begins with a five furlong turf race, and though many SoCal racing fans might be clamoring for the return of the downhill turf races, I’m not one of them. Let’s start with the fact, we just aren’t a fan of that dirt crossing, and it has nothing to do with the calamity a couple months ago which threw gasoline onto an already smoldering situation. For years, we’ve all watched runners approaching that dirt portion, and if everyone’s being truthful, you, like myself and others, have held their breath crossing over the dirt, hoping your horse isn’t gonna float out extra wide, and/or stumble across the main track portion. Let’s not forget, this was the area of the track that sent Laffit Pincay to the ground, when another veered into his path, ending his illustrious career. Anyway, I prefer these five-furlong dashes. The other half to the equation with regard to these short turf sprints, is, what Gulfstream Park has already learned, these races are great equalizers. What do we mean? There’s a reason Gulfstream can run $6,250 N2L’s going ⅝ on the turf, why? It’s a more giving surface, a shorter distance, which allows quicker turn arounds for horses, as well as keeping races competitive, after all, as we teach in both the WCHR and ECHR, getting a horse to run five furlongs on the turf, is about the same as getting them to run four furlongs on the main track, not the toughest task. Throw in the fact the shorter distance keeps races more congested, bunched up, often allows for more parity on the tote board as well. As for this offering here today, top selection is LAKER JET (#9). She debuts for Doug O’Neill, and we really like this type of work pattern for Doug. Also, the fact he turns to Agapito Delgadillo, tells us he wants a quick break from the gate and an up close trip, about the only thing Agapito knows, speed, speed, and more speed. We also like the nine hole, allowing for a quick pop from the gate off the short load. SUCCESSFUL RULER (#2) is interesting at a huge price. She showed nothing in her debut, then again, notice how she ran in a race removed from the turf? That tells us they were simply giving her the race anyway, now, back right on schedule, getting the turf, going much shorter, adding lasix, adding blinkers, with a nice work back on April 26th for trainer and owner Barocio. Remember -- to find a bomb, we have to think outside the box, there’s rarely any other way when looking for $50 plus horses.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 9-2-4-8

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,7

“Positive Notes:

“8 Stylin Ocean - Cuts way back in distance along with experience, likely moving well down the lane here.

“First Timers:

“4 Rosey Sky - Koriner is very realistic with his placement, so if running in a MSW, the horse likely has a touch of ability.

“5 Lucky Ms Jones - The slow works are par for D’Amato, and we like Franco up.

“10 Fantasy Heat - Glatt likes to use Talamo with live runners on the sod, interesting.

“TOP PICK: LAKER JET (#9 6-1 Delgadillo) Debut

“SECOND CHOICE: SUCCESSFUL RULER (#2 30-1 Blanc)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The first 2-year-old race of the year may not have had the biggest purse but certainly was the most interesting on Friday’s card. It was first 2-year-old race of the year, a 4 1/2-furlong test for Cal-breds. The winner, by three lengths, was Roses for Laura for trainer Gary Sherlock and jockey Edgar Payeras.

Terry Lovingier bred three of the six entrants, including Roses for Laura.

“We liked her from birth,” Lovingier told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “She’s out of real productive mare and she’s got an older [full] sister, Time for Angie, that made [more than] $300,000.”

Gary Sherlock was the winning trainer.

“She had a lotta training, I’ll put it that way,” Sherlock said. “She ran like she’d trained and Edgar rode her perfect. He rode her like she was the best horse because he’s worked her every time.”

Rose for Laura paid $9.80, $3.80 and $2.80. Vegan was second and Cheap Cheap Cheap was third.

Santa Anita preview

Saturday’s card is nine races starting at 1 p.m. with five of them being on the turf. There is one stakes race, two allowance/optional claimers and four maiden specials. It’s been awhile since you’ve seen horses come down the hill but you will get a chance on Saturday. We’ve said the downhill turf course is closed for sprints, which remains the case. The feature is the Grade 3 $100,000 Santa Barbara Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.

It’s 1 ½ miles so it starts at the top of the hill and goes through the stretch twice. The thinking, we’re guessing, is the horses won’t be in a hurry down the hill and over the dirt crossover, thus making it pretty safe. The last fatality at Santa Anita, the 23^rd, was on the dirt portion of the downhill course. There have been no fatalities at the track for more than a month.

Causeforcommotion, at 9-5, is the favorite for trainer Eric Kruljac and jockey Geovanni Franco. She finished second in last year’s Santa Barbara but has only run two races since then. She is three-for-15 lifetime. In last year’s race. she gave up the lead in the stretch.

The second favorite is Lynne’s Legacy at 2-1. She goes for Doug O’Neill and Alonso Quinonez. She is sixth off a claim for $40,000. The connections had the mare before, lost her in a claim and then took her back after one race. She has been third in the Astra and Santa Ana this year. Post is around 3 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10 (4 also eligible), 6, 7, 6, 6, 7, 10, 5, 10 (4 ae). The first and ninth races are five furlongs on the turf for maidens.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:30 Belmont (1): Grade 3 $200,000 Vagrancy Handicap, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Separationofpowers (7-5)

12:00 Belmont (4): Grade 3 $300,000 Peter Pan Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Intrepid Heart (7-5)

12:10 Percy Warner (3): $100,000 Marcellus Frost Champion Hurdle, 4 and up, 2 ¼-mile hurdle on turf. Favorite: No wagering.

1:45 Belmont (7): Grade 3 $200,000 Beaugay Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Competitionofideas (7-5)

1:59 Woodbine (8): $100,000 Ballade Stakes, Ont-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Silent Sonet (2-1)

2:26 Churchill Downs (10): $100,000 Mamzelle Overnight Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Abyssinian (3-1)

2:34 Gulfstream (10): $100,000 Big Drama Stakes, Fla-breds 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Garter and Tie (3-1)

2:35 Arlington (7): $100,000 Hanshin Cup Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Nun the Less (7-2)

2:35 Percy Warner (7): Grade 1 $150,000 Calvin Houghland Iroquios, 4 and up, 3 mile hurdle on turf. Favorite: No wagering.

2:51 Belmont (9): $150,000 Run Happy Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Recruiting Ready (8-5)

3:03 Santa Anita (5): Grade 3 $100,000 Santa Barbara Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Causeforcommotion (9-5)

3:24 Belmont (10): Grade 1 $700,000 Man o’ War Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Focus Group (5-2)

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 9 Mongolian Greywolf (12-1)

Mongolian Greywolf, second start off the long layoff, he runs protected Saturday after being risked for a cheap tag last out on dirt. Was this a sneaky move hoping he would not be claimed to prep for his preferred surface and get a big price? Trainer Enebish Ganbat is winning 21% at the meet but he is 32% going dirt to turf like today. If this horse runs anything to last year’s Del Mar race speed we have a big price potential gate-to-wire winner. Jockey Martin Garcia has been hitting on some nice longshots of late. As a back-up I am also looking for a closer and Erotic with Flavien Prat riding for trainer Richard Mandella meets my criteria. Both wins have been under Prat and with the early speed in this race we have a closer to play catch up to our speedster. This is another allowance race and these allowance races have been producing some nice value winners.

Friday’s result: Be Lifted Up looked great on paper but could only manage fourth.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 4 Movedbydino (5-2)

He is back in a soft maiden field after last fifth-place try when stumbling from the rail post leaving the gate at a longer distance. I liked the speed he showed in prior nose setback vs. Mystic Grey, who since ran second in an 870-yard allowance. Movedbydino catches a soft 870-yard maiden field and figures to be well positioned behind expected pacesetters Raw Diamond and Tarzanita.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

SPRINGS ETERNAL stalked then pressed the pace outside a rival, took command leaving the second turn and drew clear in the stretch under a tap of the whip, an energetic hand ride and a hold late. TEMPLE SECRET close up stalking the pace inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and just held second. RIVER GOD saved ground chasing the leaders, came out into the stretch, went around a rival in upper stretch then angled back in and was edged for the place. THIRD ARMY stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. RIGHTFUL dropped back along the inside and saved ground off the pace, split rivals in midstretch and could not offer the needed response inside. FORMAL DUDE was in a good position stalking the pace between horses to the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. DERBY CHAMP took the early lead and angled in, set a pressured pace inside, relinquished the advantage leaving the second turn and weakened in the drive. WILL DANCER broke a bit slowly, pulled his way along outside and steadied briefly on the first turn, tugged and chased outside a rival on the backstretch then three deep into and on the second turn and into the stretch and also weakened.

CLEAR THE MINE angled in and set the pace inside, inched away on the backstretch, kicked clear on the second turn and drew off under urging then steady handling late. SUNSET SEVEN pressed the pace outside the winner then stalked off the rail, angled to the inside nearing the stretch, continued along the fence in the drive and edged a rival for the place. COMES THE DREAM settled off the rail went outside a rival then three deep on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and was edged for second. BAY AREA stalked the pace three deep then four wide leaving the backstretch, continued off the rail on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. HARROVIAN saved ground chasing the winner throughout and also weakened. COULD BE THE ONE stalked the pace between horses, came out into the stretch and also weakened.

ROSES FOR LAURA saved ground stalking the pace, waited briefly along the rail early on the turn, bid inside under urging past the eighth pole to gain the lead nearing the sixteenth marker and won clear. VEGAN broke out slightly, had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail, battled between foes past midstretch and edged a foe for the place. CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP dueled outside the runner-up, battled three wide past midstretch and was edged for second. A DREAM IS A WISH stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. GOVENESS SHEILA close up stalking the pace between horses then just off the inside leaving the turn and into the stretch, angled in some late and also weakened. INDIAS LUTE chased a bit off the rail, came out into the stretch and had little left for the drive. HAND TIMED.

SEASIDE DANCER chased a bit off the rail ,bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn to take the lead nearing the stretch, kicked clear under left handed urging and held. PERSEPHONE between horses early, chased inside then just off the rail, went around a rival into the stretch, drifted out some late and closed the gap to the winner. NORWEGIAN settled off the pace inside, went around a rival in midstretch and bested the others inside. SUPER KLAUS unhurried off the rail early, went outside a rival leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked a further response. ANONYMOUSLY had good early speed and angled in, set the pace inside, dueled briefly along the rail leaving the second turn and weakened in the stretch.

TREASURE HUNTER bobbled some at the start, pressed the pace outside the runner-up, took a short lead in midstretch and gamely prevailed under urging. CABIN JOHN also bobbled a bit at the start, had speed inside, set a pressured pace along the rail, fought back along the fence through the stretch and continued willingly but could not quite match the winner late. VERY VERY STELLA four wide into the first turn, chased outside a rival throughout, came three deep into the stretch and edged foes for the show three wide on the line. TOP OF THE GAME stalked off the rail then a bit off the fence, angled in for the second turn, came out some into the stretch and was edged for third between horses late. ARCH PRINCE settled off thee rail, angled in some for the second turn, found the rail in the stretch and was edged for a minor award along the fence.

SMOOVIE broke outward, angled in and set a pressured pace inside, inched away leaving the backstretch, met a pair of bids into the second turn, edged away again leaving the turn, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and proved best. SEDAMAR chased outside a rival then three deep midway on the backstretch, angled to the inside nearing the second turn, came out leaving that turn and four wide into the stretch and finished with interest to edge a rival late for the place. LOSTINTRANZLATION stalked outside then alongside a rival, bid three deep leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, tracked the winner again leaving that turn and three wide into the stretch and was edged late for second. BE LIFTED UP angled in on the first turn and stalked inside, came out into the stretch, continued between foes in midstretch and deep stretch and lacked the needed late kick. DROP THE MIC squeezed back at the start, saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside in the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. KENNEDIE SKY broke a bit slowly, angled in and settled off the pace inside, came out into the stretch, split rivals in midstretch and also lacked the needed rally. MISS VOLUPTUOUS pulled early, chased between horses on the first turn then outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. MARJORIE E chased three deep on the firs turn then outside a rival on the backstretch and second turn, came out three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. HOTITUDE pulled and pressed the pace outside the winner then stalked just off the rail leaving the backstretch, bid again between horses into the second turn, tracked again leaving that turn, dropped back between foes in the stretch and weakened.

UNO TROUBLE MAKER dueled outside a rival, inched away a bit off the rail on the turn and drew clear under a steady hand ride. BABY ICE sent between rivals early, dueled inside, came out some in upper stretch, drifted in a bit then out some from the whip in the final furlong and bested the others. CONVINCE chased inside, came off the rail on the turn, angled out into the stretch and picked up the show. BE A LADY stalked outside a rival then off the rail, continued alongside the runner-up leaving the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. BIG RED SEVEN settled off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn and had little left for the drive.

ALLEVA stalked the pace inside, bid along the rail in the stretch to gain the lead past the eighth pole, kicked clear under a crack of the whip and held. UNBRIDLED'S SKYE angled in and chased outside a rival, continued inside on the turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and gained the place. CARNIVOROUS had speed between foes then stalked between rivals or a bit off the rail, continued outside the winner leaving the turn, came three deep into the stretch, was bumped in deep stretch but edged that one for the show. BOA NOVA (IRE) had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away on the backstretch, set the pace along the rail, came off the fence into the stretch, drifted out in the final furlong, bumped a foe a sixteenth out and was edged by that one for third. POWER DOWN (IRE) broke a bit slowly, angled in and saved ground off the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and finished with interest inside. MISS THAT KAT broke in onto a rival, stalked four wide then three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. RICKEY B settled off the rail then chased inside, came out some into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. MY MANDATE stalked the pace between horses on the backstretch and turn, continued outside a rival into the stretch and weakened. NICE WORK was in a good position stalking the pace between foes then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened.