Horse racing newsletter: It’s Kentucky Derby rankings time

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we finally get to see Essential Quality this weekend.

Let’s not waste time and get right to the Kentucky Derby rankings.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Jon White is back with his Triple Crown rankings. Jon is one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with his Kentucky Derby rankings and previewing the weekend points races, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“Essential Quality, undefeated in three career starts and No. 1 in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings, heads a field of seven entered in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

“This will be Essential Quality’s 2021 debut after he won all three starts last year. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt registered victories in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the fall at Keeneland for trainer Brad Cox, the Eclipse Award-winning trainer of 2020.

“The Southwest originally had been scheduled for Feb. 15. But due to unusual wintry weather the race was moved to Feb. 20, then to Feb. 21, then to Saturday.

“Voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male, Essential Quality arrived Wednesday at Cox’s Oaklawn barn from Louisiana’s Fair Grounds. Also making the trip from New Orleans was two-time Eclipse Award-winning 6-year-old mare Monomoy Girl, who makes her 2021 debut for Cox in Sunday’s Bayakoa Stakes.

“Essential Quality was at 7-2 odds in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Jackie’s Warrior is seeking revenge in the Southwest after finishing fourth as the 9-10 favorite in the Juvenile, his lone defeat. Four for four going into the Breeders’ Cup, Jackie’s Warrior won such important races in New York last year as the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga and Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.

“Essential Quality begins from the inside post Saturday. Jackie’s Warrior drew post 4. Essential Quality is the 3-2 morning-line favorite, while Jackie’s Warrior is a close second choice at 8-5.

“Jackie’s Warrior raced close to a hot pace at the Breeders’ Cup (:22.58 for the opening quarter, :45.31 for the half), then paid the price by weakening in the final furlong. Essential Quality, eighth early in the field of 14, rallied to prevail by three-quarters of a length in 1:42.09.

“The pace in the Southwest should be much more to the liking of Jackie’s Warrior. The Kentucky-bred Maclean’s Music colt probably will go right to the front and dare his opponents to catch him.

“At the Breeders’ Cup, Essential Quality was nine lengths off the lead in the early going. But look for him to be much closer early this time. In the Breeders’ Futurity, he showed enough zip to vie for the early lead, though the pace was considerably slower (:23.97, :48.86) than in the Juvenile.

“Los Alamitos Futurity winner Spielberg represents trainer Bob Baffert in the Southwest. After his Los Al victory, the Kentucky-bred Union Rags colt finished fourth in Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30, a race won by the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit.

“The Southwest will reward the first four finishers with 10-4-2-1 points toward a starting berth in the $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.

“Considerably more Kentucky Derby eligibility points (50-20-10-5) will be up for grabs in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Ten are set to start.

“Greatest Honour is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt won Gulfstream’s 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes by 5 3/4 lengths at odds of 5-2 in his stakes debut on Jan. 30. Shug McGaughey trains Greatest Honour. McGaughey won the 2013 Fountain of Youth with Orb, who went on to win both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

“The Fountain of Youth also has attracted Fire At Will, who is the 7-2 second choice on the morning line. Drain the Clock and Prime Factor are each 5-1.

“Fire At Will is making his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last Nov. 26 at Keeneland in a 30-1 upset. The Kentucky-bred colt does have experience racing on dirt. As a maiden, Fire At Will won the off-the-turf With Anticipation Stakes on a sloppy main track at Saratoga last Sept. 2.

“Declaration of War, Fire At Will’s sire, ran quite well the only time he ran on dirt. Declaration of War lost by only a head when he finished third to Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita in 2013.

“Drain the Clock goes into the Fountain of Youth off a 6 1/4-length win in Gulfstream’s seven-furlong Swale Stakes on Jan. 30. This will be the farthest race yet for the Kentucky-bred Maclean’s Music colt. In Maclean’s Music’s only start, he won a 2011 maiden race at Santa Anita by 7 1/4 lengths when completing six furlongs in a scorching 1:07.44. Maclean’s Music sired the 2017 winner of the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes, Cloud Computing. That offers some hope for Drain the Clock when he stretches out to 1 1/16 miles Saturday.

“Prime Factor won a six-furlong Gulfstream maiden race by 8 3/4 lengths at first asking Dec. 12, then was the 11-10 favorite in the Holy Bull. The Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt will attempt to rebound Saturday after finishing third, 9 1/2 lengths behind Greatest Honour, in the Holy Bull. Quality Road won the 2009 Fountain of Youth.

‘”Friday night’s John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park, which will be at 1 1/16 miles on a synthetic surface, offers 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby points to the first four finishers. Gretzky the Great is the 3-1 morning-line favorite. Mark Casse trains the Canadian-bred Nyquist colt. Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

“Gretzky the Great’s most significant win so far came in last year’s Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine. This will be his first start since he finished sixth behind the aforementioned Fire At Will in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

“Life Is Good, who is No. 2 in our Kentucky Derby rankings, continues to sparkle in his workouts leading up to Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes on March 6. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt once again was sheer poetry in motion when he worked five furlongs in :59.60 for Baffert last Sunday morning at Santa Anita. The workout was listed as breezing by Equibase.

“At Southern California tracks, the official clockers rarely list a workout as breezing, which is to indicate that the horse worked considerably easier than a horse whose workout is listed as handily. Of the 158 workouts at Santa Anita last Sunday, Life Is Good’s was the only one listed as breezing.

“When Life Is Good stepped five furlongs in :59.60 last Sunday, it was what is termed a bullet workout. A bullet workout is the fastest workout of the morning on a particular track and at a particular distance. Life Is Good’s :59.60 was the fastest of 54 five-furlong works on Santa Anita’s main track last Sunday. Because a workout listed as breezing must be accomplished so easily, it is an extreme rarity for it to be a bullet work.

“Life Is Good’s six-furlong workout in 1:12.00 breezing on Feb. 8 also was a bullet work. And his four-furlong workout in :47.00 breezing on Jan. 11 was nearly a bullet in that it was the second-fastest of 42 works at that distance that morning.

“After Life is Good’s first 12 Southern California workouts were all listed as handily, he has reeled off six consecutive breezing workouts.

“Authentic had 56 Southern California workouts for Baffert prior to winning the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Only one of those workouts was listed as breezing. (The Run for the Roses was moved from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to COVID-19.)

“Justify had 17 SoCal workouts for Baffert prior to winning the 2018 Kentucky Derby en route to a Triple Crown sweep. None of those workouts was listed as breezing.

“American Pharoah had 27 SoCal workouts for Baffert prior to winning the 2015 Kentucky Derby en route to a Triple Crown sweep. None of those workouts was listed as breezing.

“If Essential Quality does not win the Southwest, Life Is Good is positioned to move up a notch and take over the No. 1 spot in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings next week.

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Essential Quality (1)

2. Life Is Good (2)

3. Caddo River (3)

4. Greatest Honour (4)

5. Mandaloun (5)

6. Concert Tour (6)

7. Medina Spirit (7)

8. Hot Rod Charlie (8)

9. Keepmeinmind (9)

10. Roman Centurian (10)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Santa Anita preview

The new week starts with an eight-race card starting at 12:30 p.m. There are only two races on the turf, a low for the season in good weather conditions. There are four races worth a high purse of $61,000, three of them for Cal-breds, so we’ll be going with the non-Cal race as our feature. It’s a maiden special for 3-year-old fillies going six furlongs.

Half of the horses in the field of eight as first-time starters including the first and second favorites. At 2-1 is Just Distorted for trainer Jonathan Wong and jockey Roberto Gonzalez. The filly, a $400,000 purchase, is coming off a bullet work on Feb. 21. The 5-2 second choice is Soothsay for Richard Mandella and Flavien Prat. She is coming off a bullet work on Feb. 19.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 5, 8, 6, 8, 7, 7, 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No.3 Sophie Antoinette (8-1)

Sophie Antoinette makes the second start off the bench for trainer Doug O’ Neill. The last two times second off the bench saw the best races of this horse’s career -- losing a photo finish and winning. Jessica Pyfer rides again today with her seven-pound weight break and offers great value at 8-1.

Sunday’s Result: I Give Up went off at 11-1 and yet again came from the clouds late to run second and again blow pass the winner on the gallop out. Sigh! This is a must watch horse next out especially at this distance or longer. ‘Up paid $7.20 for the place.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“In his second-year riding professionally, young jockey Cesar Ortega is making his mark at Los Alamitos, as he is currently tied with Edgar Payeras for the top spot in the local thoroughbred jockey standings with eight victories.

“Ortega has also been in the mix for a win with over two-thirds of his mounts, as has finished second 14 times and third three times. His win ratio is 21.1%, while his in-the-money percentage is an outstanding 65.8%. Ortega has won 12 races aboard all-breeds at Los Alamitos. He won six races during his first year in 2020. Ortega’s biggest night came last Sunday, as he picked up his first ever riding triple, clinching it with an impressive win aboard the Marcia Stortz-trained Coil To Strike.

“Ortega will look to build on his great start with three runners on Friday. He’ll ride Baby Beauty in the first, Tick Tock in the second, and No More Fireball in the third. Starting at 6 p.m., Friday’s feature is the third, a $15,000 allowance at 1,000 yards. The field is headed by Outlaw, who returns after finishing fourth at Santa Anita on Feb. 7.

“Dr Tool was more like Dr Cool during his campaign in the Intermountain region last year. The Kiss My Hocks gelding was a two-time stakes winner in 2020, scoring in the Weber Downs Derby Challenge Stakes in Utah on May 24 before returning with another solid stakes win, this one in the Pocatello Downs Derby Challenge Stakes in Idaho on July 8.

“Dr Tool was also the runner-up in the Grade 3 AQHA Derby Challenge Championship Stakes at The Downs at Albuquerque. He made his way to Los Alamitos following that race, as he competed in the A Ransom Handicap and in a trial to the Grade 1 Brad McKinzie Los Alamitos Winter Championship. Sixth and fifth, respectively, in those races, Dr Tool hopes to return to the winner’s circle for jockey Jairo Rangel and trainer Jose Flores.

“The field will also feature Redneck Ryan, a six-time winner totaling more than $100,000 in his career. The horse won a blazing fast allowance on Jan. 17. Stolen Lives, the winner of the Cypress Handicap in his last start, is another top contender.

“Last Sunday’s $101,250 Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes was turned upside down before the race started when favorite Ilushion Eagle was a late scratch. With the fastest qualifier out, the stakes became a wide-open contest, which was won by Communicate, who held off the fast closing Up For You in the final jump to win the 350-yard dash by nose.

“Ilushion Eagle, a three-time winner since the Dec. 1 entry deadline, was scratched by the track veterinarian after he sat on the ground after pulling his flipping halter off the starting gate doors. As soon as his body touched the ground, Ilushion Eagle was scratched as a safety precaution.

“’I did not know what had happened at first,” Jamie Gomez said. “I saw the horse pull the flipping halter off, but that was it. Then I talked to jockey Oscar Peinado and he told me that the horse sat on the ground. They had to scratch the horse. That’s the rule.’”

“Ilushion Eagle was uninjured.

At 7-1, Communicate scrambled out of the gate, but it didn’t take him long to have a slight advantage over Up For You. With Jose Nicasio up for trainer Monty Arrossa, Communicate opened up a neck lead and then outdueled Up For You in the final lunge to score his first victory in eight starts.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 5 Stel Chancey (5-1)

She is well connected but gets into early trouble regularly. She lost all chance in her most recent when hopping inward at the start to lose some ground and early running momentum to a perfect tripped winner named Up To Hit, who is the second choice in Friday’s seventh race. After the tough getaway, this entrant showed a decent amount of speed to get within a semblance of contention past the gap prior to finishing steadily for a superfecta placing. Here’s for a clean start from this fast mare, who is capable of defeating this field with some racing luck on her side.

And now the star of the show, Friday’s entries.