Lost and foundering

The Detroit Lions are one loss away from NFL history.

Shockingly, so are Denver Broncos -- and San Diego stands to reap the benefits.

On a Sunday when the Lions inched closer to the league’s first 0-16 season, the Broncos stumbled toward an unprecedented collapse. No team has ever blown a three-game division lead with three weeks to play and missed the playoffs, but Denver is one loss away from doing just that.

The stage is set for an all-or-nothing showdown Sunday night between the Broncos and Chargers in San Diego with the AFC West title -- and the division’s only playoff berth -- on the line.

Hours before Buffalo’s stunning 30-23 win over Denver, the Chargers kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the Buccaneers, 41-24, becoming the first visiting team to win at Tampa Bay this season.

The Chargers had limited TV access on their charter flight home, so they learned of the Broncos-Bills result via the ESPN crawl when they were over New Orleans.

“There was an eruption on the plane,” said Bill Johnston, the team’s public relations director. “But it died down almost as quickly as it started. Everyone realized that now we’ve got a game that means something.”

Just three weeks ago, the Chargers were 4-8 and left for dead. They clawed their way back into contention with victories over Oakland, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Broncos, once 8-5 to San Diego’s 5-8, are coming off consecutive losses to Carolina and the Bills.

Should the Chargers and Broncos finish 8-8, San Diego would win the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. According to STATS LLC, only one team in NFL history, the 2003 Minnesota Vikings, has blown a three-game lead at any point in the season and failed to make the playoffs.

Navigating the AFC playoff picture is like trying to see through the snowstorms that hit games in the Northeast and Northwest on Sunday.

Miami has the edge in a three-way battle for the AFC East title, and can clinch the division by winning its finale on the road against the New York Jets. That game pits Brett Favre against the former Jets quarterback he supplanted, the Dolphins’ Chad Pennington.

The Jets, who on Sunday lost at Seattle amid snowflakes the size of pillow feathers, need to beat the Dolphins -- and hope either New England or Baltimore loses. The Patriots, meanwhile, are in the bizarre position of rooting for the Jets, the team that alerted the NFL last season that New England was videotaping the hand signals of opposing coaches. If New England wins at Buffalo, and the Jets win, the Patriots will make the playoffs as the AFC East champions.

But if the Patriots and Dolphins win, New England could become only the second 11-5 team to miss the postseason since the league adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978. (The Patriots could make the playoffs as a wild-card team if they win, Miami wins, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville.)

As it stands, the only AFC teams that have clinched playoff berths are South champion Tennessee, which earned home-field advantage Sunday with a victory over Pittsburgh; the North champion Steelers; and the 11-4 Indianapolis Colts, who have a wild-card spot.

That the Dolphins are in position to make the playoffs a year after their 1-15 season is astounding. Just as amazing is the turnaround of the Atlanta Falcons, who secured a ticket to the postseason by winning at Minnesota on Sunday.

A year ago, Atlanta was reeling from the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal and the abrupt resignation of coach Bobby Petrino. After a 4-12 season, the Falcons hired Coach Mike Smith and used the No. 3 pick to select Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan.

Few could have guessed that Atlanta -- powered by Ryan and former Chargers running back Michael Turner -- would enjoy such a sudden reversal of fortune. With the help of losses by Dallas and Tampa Bay, the Falcons (10-5) grabbed an NFC wild-card berth.

At the opposite end of the emotional spectrum are the Lions. They became the first NFL team to go 0-15, eclipsing the mark of the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished 0-14. Detroit closes its perfectly horrendous season at Green Bay on Sunday.

“This is one big nightmare,” Lions center Dominic Raiola said. “You want it to end, but it hasn’t ended yet.”

Minnesota (9-6) was hoping for another type of conclusion. Had the Vikings won, they would have locked up the NFC North. Now they need either a win over the New York Giants in their finale, or a loss by Chicago in one of its final two games. The Bears play host to Green Bay tonight before finishing at Houston.

Washington, which was eliminated from the playoff race by virtue of Atlanta’s victory, knocked off Philadelphia by stopping the visitors inches from the end zone on the final play of a 10-3 game. The Eagles (8-6-1), who finish the season against Dallas, have a flicker of hope remaining but at the moment would be edged out for the final wild-card spot by Tampa Bay.

The other three NFC division championships have been decided. The Giants (12-3) won the East and, with Sunday night’s overtime victory over Carolina, clinched the conference’s top playoff seeding. The Panthers (11-4) won the South, and Arizona (8-7) won the West -- although the Cardinals have looked nothing like a playoff team in recent weeks.

Arizona was humiliated by the Patriots on Sunday, 47-7, in a Foxborough whiteout. It was the Cardinals’ third loss in four weeks, and Pro Bowl quarterback Kurt Warner was so ineffective -- six for 18, 30 yards -- he was temporarily benched in favor of Matt Leinart.

“If we’re happy with winning the division, then that’s all we’ll do,” Warner said.

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sam.farmer@latimes.com

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Playoff scenarios

AFC

WEST: San Diego (7-8) and Denver (8-7) play Sunday for the division title.

EAST: If Miami (10-5) beats the Jets (9-6) on Sunday, it wins the division. If the Jets win and the Patriots (10-5) win at Buffalo, New England wins the division. If the Patriots lose and the Jets win, the Jets win the division.

SOUTH: Tennessee (13-2) has clinched the division and home-field advantage.

NORTH: Pittsburgh (11-4) has clinched.

WILD CARD: Indianapolis (11-4) has clinched a berth. Baltimore (10-5) holds the tiebreaker over the Patriots.

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NFC

WEST: Arizona (8-7) has clinched.

EAST: The Giants (12-3) have clinched the division and home-field advantage.

SOUTH: Carolina (11-4) and Atlanta (10-5) have clinched playoff spots.

NORTH: Minnesota (9-6) clinches if Chicago (8-6) loses tonight against Green Bay.

WILD CARD: Dallas (9-6) clinches with a win over Philadelphia (8-6-1) on Sunday. If the Eagles win, Tampa Bay (9-6) loses, and the Bears (8-6) lose once, the Eagles clinch.

-- ASSOCIATED PRESS