Spartans Seek Unrivaled Success

OK, how is Michigan State going to screw this one up?

That’s what you’re thinking, right?

Michigan State, or Moo U, as Michigan fans like to say.

Michigan State and Michigan meet Saturday in one of the nation’s oldest rivalries.

It’s not one of the greatest rivalries because that implies some parity, and Michigan has dominated the series, 60-26-5, holding a 23-6 edge since 1970.

Let’s face it: Michigan plays bigger games every year against Notre Dame and Ohio State.

But we have a hunch this year might be different.

Both schools enter the game undefeated for the first time since 1961. Michigan is No. 3 in the polls, Michigan State is No. 11.

Michigan State has center stage in East Lansing, and perhaps, at last, the attention span to handle the national spotlight.

That hasn’t been the case under fifth-year Coach Nick Saban.

Two years ago, Michigan State started 5-0 and needed to defeat Northwestern to set up an undefeated showdown with Michigan. Michigan State lost to Northwestern then, in succession, to Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue.

Last year, Michigan State shocked No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus, but lost two of its last three and failed to qualify for a bowl game.

What’s different now?

Last week.

Faced with a classic look-ahead letdown game, Michigan State routed Iowa, 49-3.

For a school that has historically played to the level of its competition, that’s progress.

“When you’re growing up, playing in your backyard as a kid, you play against Notre Dame, Michigan, Penn State, wherever you’re from,” Saban said in his office, the morning after the Iowa win.

“Last year, we beat Notre Dame and Ohio State. What ruined our season was losing to Colorado State, Minnesota and Purdue.”

Saban appears to have driven home the point that all games count, even ho-hummers against cruddy Iowa.

Saban said he told the team: “If this game can negate all you’ve accomplished, you should look at it with special importance.”

It helps that Michigan State is a veteran team, with 25 seniors, led by quarterback Bill Burke.

Saban, a former NFL defensive coordinator and a calculating man, acknowledges he has at times been frustrated trying to get college kids to focus.

“They play Nintendo now, and when you get blown up, you just hit the reset button,” he said. “We played checkers, and you didn’t take your finger off the checker until you were sure of the move.”

Clearly, Michigan holds a heavy psychological advantage.

The Wolverines are maize and blue bloods, football aristocracy.

The Spartans are, well, the Spartans.

When Saban took over for George Perles in 1995, he seized the microphone at a Michigan-Michigan State basketball game and yelled, “Let’s kick Michigan’s [you-know-what].”

Saban beat Michigan on his first try, but has since lost three in a row.

“I don’t think one game necessarily makes or breaks a reputation,” Saban said.

Don’t kid yourself, Nick.

This is the game.

Reputations have been wrecked before. There are teenagers in Los Angeles today who must honestly wonder whether USC has ever had any luck against UCLA in football.

In 1990, in fact, the Trojans held a 34-19-7 series advantage against the Bruins. After eight consecutive UCLA wins, the series now stands 34-27-7.

Don’t kid yourself, Nick.

This is the game.

POLL HOLES

It was a dark day at the office last summer when bigwigs from the bowl championship series elected not to add a proposed L.A. Times college football ratings poll to an expanded BCS formula.

Trying to shore up the weakest link of its four-pronged system, the computer component, the BCS added five new ratings to a system that already included rankings from the New York Times, Seattle Times and Kansas State fan Jeff Sagarin.

The BCS chiefs rejected The Times’ proposal based on the silly fact that we had never had a poll before and, as it turns out, had no intention of starting one unless we were granted BCS boys’ club membership.

Well, based on what we’ve seen of the rankings the BCS chose, we could have fared as well picking schools out of a beer barrel.

The first BCS rankings will not be released until Oct. 25, but there are already some disturbing trends.

Note to Pacific 10 followers: We realize none of this may seem important to you because the final composite BCS rankings only determine which teams play for the national title in the Jan. 4 Sugar Bowl.

Yet, others tracking their favorite top-10 teams via the weekly writers’ and coaches’ polls may be shocked to know that, according to new BCS rank master David Rothman, the two best teams are Virginia Tech and Marshall.

You read it right.

Florida State, the consensus No. 1 in the writers’ and coaches’ polls all year, checks in at No. 3.

It gets worse. Rothman, who runs his ranking system in Hawthorne, has Clemson (2-2) at No. 4, ahead of Nebraska (5-0), and two-loss Virginia at No. 7 ahead of unbeaten Michigan.

Wait. It gets worse. Penn State (5-0) is No. 16 and Tennessee (3-1) is No. 17.

If the NCAA had a four-team playoff based on Rothman’s ratings, we’re looking at Virginia Tech vs. Clemson in one semifinal game and Florida State vs. Marshall in the other.

Wow, when do tickets go on sale?

Why are Rothman’s rankings so out of whack?

Figuring the fastest way to reach a computer guy was via computer, I e-mailed Rothman for an explanation.

“Please note that standings this early in the season fluctuate wildly,” Rothman responded in part, “because prior information which a reader may have about the teams is deliberately being withheld from the computer. If a team currently is 2-2, for example, the computer tries to place that team below the teams lost to and above the two teams beaten.”

Dave, frankly, you lost me after “Please note.”

For what it’s worth, the seven other BCS-sanctioned rankings this week have Marshall rated 28th, 17th, 19th, 44th, eighth, 15th and 12th.

Thankfully, computer average is only one BCS factor out of four, to be meshed with the writers’ and coaches’ component, strength of schedule and losses.

But Rothman’s ratings illustrate just how wildly variant these computer systems can be.

As we so often say about these computer wonks:

Go figure.

WHAT THE TECH?

Anyone else tired of prognosticators who have already eliminated one-loss Florida and Tennessee from the national title picture? Nothing could be further from the truth. Florida won the national title in 1996 six weeks after losing to Florida State in late November, and Florida State advanced to last year’s title game after a September loss to North Carolina State.

Tennessee can certainly survive a two-point September defeat to Florida.

What separates elite programs from national title gate-crashers Virginia Tech and Kansas State is make-up speed.

No. 8 Florida still has a powerhouse game left against Florida State, plus a possible poll-enhancer in the SEC title game.

“We’re still not in terrible shape if we play well the rest of the way through,” Florida Coach Steve Spurrier said.

No. 6 Tennessee plays Alabama, Notre Dame and Arkansas, although the Florida loss may cost Tennessee a berth in the SEC title game.

The common goal, I think we’d all agree, is to prevent Kansas State vs. Virginia Tech for the national title. Unfortunately, both schools are tracking well in the eight BCS computer rankings. Virginia Tech ranks first in three of the eight computers, and Kansas State ranks no lower than 10th.

Virginia Tech, which plays Syracuse and Miami at home, can easily finish unbeaten. Kansas State has the tougher road, still having to face Nebraska in Lincoln and probably Texas A&M; in the Big 12 title game.

Even if Virginia Tech and Kansas State finish unbeaten, though, there’s no guarantee they’ll finish 1-2 in the final BCS standings because of schedule strength, the most credible component of the BCS system.

In this week’s Sagarin ratings, Kansas State ranks 80th in strength of schedule and Virginia Tech is 35th.

HURRY-UP OFFENSE

Florida State Coach Bobby Bowden said he expects to learn today from investigators whether Heisman Trophy candidate Peter Warrick and Laveranues Coles will be implicated in a theft at a Tallahassee department store.

“The degree of the ruling could be a dismissal for somebody,” Bowden said.

In Pullman, Washington State’s campus police have sensibly dropped charges against Seattle Post-Intelligencer writer Angelo Brucas, arrested after last Saturday’s Washington State-California game for doing his job. Brucas was booked for fourth-degree assault and obstruction of an officer after he tried to enter a room designated for postgame interviews because he had to use the bathroom. “We will do everything in our power to make sure the mistake is not repeated,” Washington State wrote in an letter of apology to Pacific Northwest sports journalists.

Will it inspire another Tea Party? There are 13 undefeated schools remaining in Division I, but only one is not ranked: Boston College.