Hahn Takes Solid Lead in Race to Be Next L.A. Mayor

City Atty. James K. Hahn has moved into a solid lead in the race for mayor of Los Angeles, pushing ahead of five other candidates who are bunched tightly together and fighting for the chance to compete in a runoff, a Los Angeles Times poll has found.

With just more than five weeks to go until the April 10 election, Hahn has established himself as the front-runner by securing his traditional base of support in the African American community and performing solidly among voters from other ethnic groups and geographic quarters of the city.

Twenty-four percent of likely voters say they plan to support Hahn, double the number who favor any of his top competitors, the poll found. His backers tend to be the most committed in a race that thus far has been, at best, a distant background noise in most Angelenos’ lives.

Behind Hahn, the contest stacks up as a virtual dead heat, with the second spot up for grabs and a runoff all but certain. A candidate must capture a majority of the vote next month to win the mayor’s office outright.

Commercial real estate broker Steve Soboroff has surged from obscurity into contention, with the support of 12% of those surveyed, the same as former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa. City Councilman Joel Wachs was favored by 11%, U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra by 10%, and state Controller Kathleen Connell by 8%.

The poll of likely voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The race to replace Mayor Richard Riordan remains extremely fluid. Nearly one-quarter of voters said they have not picked a candidate. Even among those who have made a selection, more than two in five said they might change their minds.

Ruby Pope, a Palms-area woman, said in a follow-up interview that she’s far from certain who will get her vote. “Most of them are just names to me still,” said Pope, who might have been speaking for much of the largely unfocused electorate. “What they all think and want for the city, I just haven’t heard. We just don’t have much information yet.”

Long Tenure and a Brand Name

In this amorphous political landscape, Hahn has emerged as a relatively distinct figure. The four-term city attorney benefits, not only from his long tenure in local government, but also from a marketable brand name in local politics--an identification built over four decades by his father, the late county Supervisor Kenneth Hahn.

“To be honest, I don’t know what his relation is to the late Kenneth Hahn,” said Essie Hall, a 57-year-old poll respondent who said she would vote for Hahn, “but he was great and I just associate that name with good people.”

Hahn appears positioned to duplicate a pattern that has helped others advance to a mayoral runoff--securing a base of support in one ethnic or geographic section of Los Angeles and then reaching out to other voters.

His core support is in the African American community, where he is favored by 58% of likely voters. He also runs respectably among whites and Latinos. (Asians were surveyed but not enough likely voters could be reached to break them out as a separate group.)

Hahn partisans can take heart in yet another poll finding: In a shifting and malleable electorate, the city attorney has more committed supporters than any other candidate. Nearly three in four of Hahn’s backers say they are sure to vote for him.

As the candidates race toward election day, Hahn seems to be in a good position to maintain his advantage.

He is just one of two candidates, along with Soboroff, who has begun to advertise on television--probably the most effective way to reach notoriously distracted voters. Hahn may have already received a boost in the survey because his ads went on the air the same day, coincidentally, that the Times Poll began calling voters.

And Hahn’s support crosses demographic lines, leading among both men and women and among voters of all educational levels, the poll found.

“He just seems like a solid person,” said Gloria Gatlin, a South Los Angeles resident.

But the poll also hinted at a challenge for the city attorney, particularly if he makes it to a runoff: defining an identity apart from his father.

Many of his supporters in South Los Angeles said they are leaning toward Hahn because of the achievements of the elder Hahn, who was known for filling potholes, opening parks and building community centers in that part of the city.

“Hahn is performing well,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. “But no one should conclude from these results that he’s been anointed to be the next mayor of Los Angeles.”

For those in the chase behind Hahn, there seems reason for both hope and concern.

Wachs Is Back in the Pack

Perhaps the most surprising finding of the survey is that Wachs, a Los Angeles city councilman for 30 years, is struggling to break out of the pack. He has been perceived, both by his own campaign staff and by his competitors, as a front-runner who would have to be overtaken by other candidates if they were to make the runoff.

Instead, Wachs finds himself fighting for votes, even among the San Fernando Valley residents and senior citizens who have helped power him to eight straight election victories in his Valley council district, the poll found.

Wachs’ path to the runoff has been greatly complicated by the presence of Soboroff. The councilman preaches tough law enforcement and fiscal conservatism while taking liberal stands on social issues. He is a political independent who once registered as a Republican.

Soboroff, a current member of the GOP, shares many of those priorities. But he has never won elective office.

The Times Poll makes it clear Soboroff is siphoning off many of the moderate and conservative voters who otherwise might tilt to Wachs. The councilman is the clear second choice of Soboroff supporters.

Wachs may have a hidden advantage, though. His supporters tend to be more certain that they will vote for him, compared with Soboroff’s somewhat more ambivalent followers.

And the veteran councilman, who waged a high-profile campaign to kill taxpayers’ subsidies for Staples Center, is the only candidate besides Hahn who makes a favorable impression on more than half of likely voters.

While Wachs’ poll results may be disappointing, Soboroff has established himself as a contender. A month of television advertising appears to have made the former recreation and parks commissioner a recognizable figure.

That’s a significant development for a candidate who claimed just 1% of registered voters in a Times Poll 11 months ago.

The Pacific Palisades businessman draws nearly all his support from white voters and those on the Westside and in the San Fernando Valley. But their backing is sometimes shaky and, despite Mayor Richard Riordan’s endorsement, Soboroff has yet to make a clear impression on most voters.

Although Riordan remains popular, nearly two-thirds of poll respondents said they would like to change at least some of his policies. And just one in 10 likely voters said Riordan’s nod would make them more likely to vote for Soboroff, his handpicked successor.

“I’m not overly impressed with Riordan, so that wouldn’t sway me that much,” said William McComb, who runs a small pool maintenance business in Northridge and who voted for Riordan twice.

McComb, a Republican, said he is leaning toward Soboroff but added that he’s not sure who will get his vote. “I’ve got to study it a lot more as the election gets closer.”

While Soboroff and Wachs are fighting over a sizable number of white voters, Latinos are also sharply divided over who should be the next mayor.

Many Latino political leaders believe this election provides the best opportunity in more than a century to elect one of their own as mayor. And Latinos indicate a strong interest in the election. Many said they plan to vote for the first time.

That means it’s likely that Latinos will play a larger role in determining the outcome this year than in 1993, when they made up just 8% of the vote, or 1997, when they were 15% of the voters.

But the clout of those newly inspired voters is being diffused, as many political observers had predicted, by the presence of two prominent Mexican American candidates in the race.

Thirty percent of Latinos said they would vote for Becerra, while 19% said they would vote for Villaraigosa. Hahn also earned the endorsement of 19% of Latinos polled.

Latino political leaders had once tried to broker a deal to have eitherBecerra or Villaraigosa leave the race. But the deal never got off the ground and now both are determined to finish the race, each hamstrung by the other’s presence.

Villaraigosa appears better positioned than Becerra, however, to improve his standing. The survey offers some confirmation of what his campaign has tried to promote: a multiethnic coalition of voters from across the city. His support comes almost equally from Latinos and whites, with some African Americans also selecting him.

“He seems honest and like he’s a guy who works with everybody to get things done,” said Terry Hagerty, a screenwriter and audiovisual technician from Hollywood. “He was speaker of the Assembly and had to get different kinds of people to support him.”

Villaraigosa still could use a boost from his long association with the labor movement, however. He worked as a union organizer for many years, and last month won a hard-fought struggle with Hahn to secure the endorsement of the county’s largest union federation.

Yet it is Hahn who leads among union voters, 24% to 16%. Villaraigosa will count on an extensive phone, mail and door-to-door campaign by the county labor group to improve that showing.

The survey provides Becerra, like the other candidates, with both good and bad news. The congressman is in the thick of the fight for second place, despite a campaign that has been criticized as underfunded and appealing to a limited constituency on the Eastside.

“The most important thing to me is that [Becerra] is a person who has always been there and tried to help all the Hispanic people,” said Jose Almanza, a truck driver from central Los Angeles. “That is the priority for me.”

But with much of his support coming from a single ethnic group and less campaign funds than any of the other major contenders, it remains unclear how Becerra will expand his support enough to make the runoff.

Trailing, but not significantly, Connell could also contend for a spot in the runoff. The state controller has the most balanced support among a variety of ethnic groups. Her recent fund-raising success gives her a big enough treasury to at mount at least some television advertising.

But one of the central strategies of Connell’s candidacy is falling flat so far. Her campaign staff thought her presence as the only woman in the race would be a decisive factor, allowing her to dominate among women, particularly Democratic ones.

At campaign appearances, Connell makes repeated references to the challenges of being a single mother of two growing boys and the need for opening more day-care centers, including some that would stay open 24 hours a day.

But those ideas have not yet connected with women. Among all women and among women of her own political party, Connell trails all five of her male competitors.

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The Times Poll surveyed 532 likely voters from Feb. 24 through March 1.

Associate poll director Jill Darling Richardson contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Voters’ Choices

If the April 10 election for mayor were held today, for whom would you vote?

James K. Hahn: 24%

Steve Soboroff: 12%

Antonio Villaraigosa: 12%

Joel Wachs: 12%

Xavier Becerra: 10%

Kathleen Connell: 8%

Don’t know: 23%

*

Note: Among likely voters.

Source: Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Sizing Up the Candidates

What should be the next mayor’s top priority?

(accepted as many as two replies)

Top three responses shown:

Education: 33%

Police behavior: 21%

Crime: 20%

*

What particular character-istic or quality would you most like to see in the next mayor?

(accepted as many as two replies)

Top three responses shown:

Honesty/integrity: 38%

Strong leader: 18%

Cares about people like me: 11%

*

*

Notes: All results shown are among likely voters. -- indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

Times Poll results are also available at www.latimes.com/timespoll.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 532 likely voters in Los Angeles city, by telephone Feb. 24 -- March 1. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city of Los Angeles. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Asians were interviewed as part of the overall sample, but there were not enough likely voters to break out as a separate subgroup.