Field Poll: Brown 20 points ahead of Kashkari in governor’s race

Gov. Jerry Brown holds a commanding 20-point lead in his bid for reelection in November, but most likely voters have not yet formed an opinion about his Republican challenger, Neel Kashkari of Laguna Beach, according to a new Field Poll.

Likely voters favor the Democratic incumbent over Kashkari by 52% to 32%, with 16% undecided, the survey found.

California voters are sharply divided by party: Democrats overwhelmingly favor Brown, while Republicans strongly back Kashkari. But there are nearly 2.7 million more Democrats than Republicans in California. And voters unaligned with either major party favor Brown by nearly 2-to-1, according to the poll.

For Kashkari, a former assistant U.S. Treasury secretary who oversaw the bank bailout program that began in 2008, a hopeful sign in the poll was the large share of voters who don’t yet know who he is. While 85% of likely voters offered an opinion of Brown, just 44% were able to rate Kashkari.

“He has the opportunity of introducing himself to many voters who don’t know much about him,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo.

But it will be a challenge. Kashkari emerged from the June 3 primary virtually broke, so he must raise millions of dollars to pay for TV advertising in advance of the November runoff against Brown.

Another challenge for Kashkari, DiCamillo said, will be to “give voters a reason why they shouldn’t reelect Jerry Brown.” So far, he said, the contest appears to be a referendum on the popular governor.

The poll found that 54% of California voters approve of Brown’s job performance.

His strongest groups of supporters include Bay Area and L.A. County residents, African Americans, Latinos, liberals and women.

Kashkari is most popular with the state’s most conservative voters. He’s also running just ahead or even with Brown in parts of Southern California outside L.A. County. But he trails the governor slightly in the Central Valley, a crucial base for Republicans in a statewide election.

The Field Poll surveyed 2,013 California adults, including 1,382 registered voters and 982 likely voters, June 5-22. The survey’s margin of potential sampling error was 2.7 percentage points in either direction for all registered voters and 3.2 percentage points for likely voters.