That Good Education Might Not Be Enough

But the president's assertion that the answer to foreign outsourcing is education, a mantra embraced by Democrats as well as Republicans, is being challenged by a growing body of research and analysis from economists and other scholars. Education — at least as delivered by most of the nation's colleges, universities and technical schools — is no longer quite the economic cure-all it once was, nor the guarantee of financial security Americans have come to expect from college and graduate degrees.

"More education has been the right answer for the past few decades," said Princeton University economist and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan S. Blinder, "but I'm not so convinced that it's the right course" for coping with the upheavals of globalization.

Not that Blinder or other experts think workers would be better off not going to school. Rather, they point to emerging evidence that education may not offer as much protection against the effects of globalization as Bush and others claim.

"One could be educationally competitive and easily lose out in the global economic marketplace because of significantly lower wages being paid elsewhere," said Sheldon E. Steinbach, general counsel of the American Council on Education, an umbrella group that represents most of the nation's major colleges and universities.

Some analysts think that something like what Steinbach described is already underway.

Starting in 1975, the earnings difference between high school- and college-educated workers steadily widened for 25 years. But since 2000, the trend appears to have stalled. Census figures show that average, after-inflation earnings of college graduates fell by more than 5% between 2000 and 2004, whereas the earnings of those with only high school degrees rose slightly.

Most studies suggest that beyond the manufacturing sector, the "offshoring" of jobs has been comparatively modest. But some analysts say the ground has been laid for a substantial pickup. In a recent paper, Blinder offered a rough estimate that suggested that as many as 42 million jobs, or nearly one-third of the nation's total, were susceptible to offshoring.

These analysts warn that more education alone will do little to stop the flow of jobs to other countries.

"What's missing here from both parties is a global economic strategy and a worker adjustment strategy," said Anthony P. Carnevale, a scholar at the National Center on Education and the Economy who was appointed to major commissions by Presidents Reagan and Clinton.

"When they don't know what else to do," he remarked, "there's a tendency among politicians to stand up and say 'education.' "

In Bush's case, arguing for more schooling draws particular fire from some educators, because the administration's record of providing money to support the kind of training he advocates has been weak.

Bush previously has defended the offshoring of jobs as an economic reality and a trend that ultimately would work in America's favor. But he was exceptionally candid about its downside during his exchange with the Indian students.

"People do lose their jobs as a result of globalization, and it's painful for those who lose their jobs," he said.

Even so, Bush continued, the only way forward for Americans is through improved education and pro-growth economic policies, not protectionism.

"The United States of America will reject protectionism," he said. "We won't fear competition. We welcome competition."

In coming down foursquare against erecting trade barriers, Bush extended a string of policy positions he has taken in recent weeks that favor unfettered interaction between countries and corporations over other concerns. These positions have fueled intense controversy, even among fellow Republicans.

The president came out strongly, for example, in favor of a plan by an Arab company to take over operations at ports on the East and Gulf coasts, though White House aides subsequently said the administration backed a 45-day review. The proposal by Dubai Ports World provoked bipartisan criticism that Bush was shortchanging national security.

Bush also has offered a guest-worker program that's faced criticism in Congress, especially from conservative Republicans who have argued that the president's plan would encourage more migrants to enter the country illegally.