Top Heisman Trophy contenders hope to defy the odds

Picking the Heisman Trophy winner isn’t like wagering on Alabama versus the Slippery Rock practice squad. No one has any idea how it’s going to turn out.

Even professional oddsmakers were way off the mark in their predictions before last season. Bovada made Texas Christian quarterback Trevone Boykin and Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott its co-favorites at 5-1, with Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett next at 9-1.

None of them was even a finalist. Boykin got injured, Elliott was overshadowed and Barrett couldn’t get out of his own way, losing the starter’s job before the season opener. The award was won by Alabama running back Derrick Henry, whom Bovada listed at 14-1 in the preseason.

In a way, then, Louisiana State’s Leonard Fournette would defy the odds by fulfilling his status as Bovada’s 2016 preseason Heisman favorite at 9-2. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson was next at 5-1, followed by Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey (11-2) and Florida State’s Dalvin Cook, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and Barrett (all 12-1). UCLA’s Josh Rosen was 16-1.

Maybe Washington State Coach Mike Leach put it best when asked for his thoughts on the Heisman last month.

“I’m in favor of it,” Leach quipped.

The only certainty involving the award is that it will be presented Dec. 10 at the New York Downtown Athletic Club. Here’s a look at the story lines surrounding five candidates:

Reap what you sow?

There was laughter at Pac-12 media days when McCaffrey mentioned once owning a potbellied pig (R.I.P., Terrance).

It’s just too bad reporters didn’t go hog wild for McCaffrey seven months earlier. He finished as the Heisman runner-up despite breaking the NCAA single-season record with 3,496 all-purpose yards, surpassing the great Barry Sanders.

The Stanford athletic department didn’t do McCaffrey any favors last year by waiting until mid-November to launch a Heisman campaign, but what do you expect from a school more interested in touting the 20 Nobel laureates that are currently members of its community?

McCaffrey enters the season with plenty of name recognition. What he doesn’t have is a proven quarterback, after the departure of Kevin Hogan.

McCaffrey recently joked that he wanted a bigger role in the passing game after completing two of his three passes last season, both for touchdowns.

Maybe he wasn’t kidding.

Seeking a do-over

Fournette had impressive numbers last season to bolster his Heisman case. He couldn’t overcome these: 31 yards in 19 carries against Alabama.

Getting rolled by the Tide defense undoubtedly lessened the wow factor of his prowess against everybody else. Fournette averaged a nation-leading 163 yards per game and topped 200 yards three times before the Tigers’ bowl game.

But LSU’s three-game losing streak late in the season slowed the considerable momentum Fournette had built. Add the freak-of-nature weather cancellation of the opener against McNeese State, which presumably cost Fournette another big chunk of yardage, and he finished sixth in the Heisman voting.

Fournette enters this season with $20 million in insurance policies for career-ending injury and circumstances that would lead to him plummeting from his projected NFL draft spot.

A bounce-back effort against Alabama could take care of the latter concern as well as cinch Fournette’s Heisman bid.

Almost famous

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson impressed college football fans with his performance in the national championship game.

(Wilfredo Lee / Associated Press )

Watson’s Heisman candidacy received what amounted to free advertising in the national championship game against Alabama.

He piled up 478 yards of total offense, and four passing touchdowns, during the Tigers’ 45-40 loss. While that nationally televised performance had no bearing on Watson’s Heisman fate (he finished third), it certainly could have a carryover effect in making him a brand name before the first snap of the 2016 season.

Watson may not need a head start given his dual production. He passed for 4,104 yards and 35 touchdowns and rushed for 1,105 yards and 12 touchdowns.

A bonus is Watson’s efficiency in the classroom. He recently completed a spring semester in which he took seven courses and remains on track to graduate with a degree in communications studies in just six semesters.

Schoolwork, like football, is elementary for Watson.

Headier days may be ahead

Being the thinking man’s quarterback isn’t always a smart move. That’s especially true when it leaves you with more headaches than Heisman votes.

Coming off a 2014 season in which he finished fifth in the Heisman voting, Barrett acknowledged he over-analyzed his situation this time last year. He was recovering from a serious ankle injury and jostling with Cardale Jones for the Ohio State starting job.

It was a battle that Jones won before his inconsistencies prompted the Buckeyes to go back to Barrett after midseason. But his part-time status and a loss to Michigan State that kept Ohio State out of the Big Ten Conference title game doomed Barrett’s Heisman candidacy; he didn’t finish in the top 10 in voting.

That’s something that figures to change with Barrett the known starter, leaving him to contemplate something besides his own status.

A case for the little guy

The plaque affixed to the Heisman statue states that it’s “PRESENTED TO THE OUTSTANDING COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER IN THE UNITED STATES,” though the unstated addendum “FROM A MAJOR-CONFERENCE PROGRAM” has applied for most of the last half century.

Houston’s Andre Ware and Brigham Young’s Ty Detmer were outliers in a list otherwise stacked with winners from more pedigreed conferences.

That brings us to San Diego State’s Donnell Pumphrey, the running back whose Heisman candidacy undoubtedly will be beset by three words: Mountain West Conference. Pumphrey is the longest of longshots, with Bovada not even listing him in its latest Heisman odds.

What fun is that? The undersized, overachieving Pumphrey could very well break Marshall Faulk’s school records for rushing yards and touchdowns this season. The dynamic playmaker also led the Aztecs in receiving yards last season and returned kickoffs.

Faulk was a Heisman finalist in 1992, a designation Pumphrey could match if voters pump up the support for a potentially overlooked candidate from the sticks of college football.

ben.bolch@latimes.com

Follow Ben Bolch on Twitter @latbbolch