Racing! Lots of story lines developing for the Kentucky Derby

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for Super Saturday.

There is little doubt that this year’s Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be one of the most interesting in a while. There are story lines aplenty and it’s unlikely that any thing that happens on Super Saturday will diminish things, only add to the intrigue.

On Saturday will be the Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and BlueGrass Stakes. So, before they run those races, let’s look at what is percolating out there.

--Todd Pletcher’s big crew. Pletcher has at least three horses that may be headed to the Kentucky Derby. Noble Indy won the Louisiana Derby. Audible won the Florida Derby and Magnum Moon won the Risen Star Stakes. He’s also got Vino Rosso, Marconi and Gido going in the next two weeks. He probably won’t have six, but four or five is a possibility.

--Bob Baffert’s big crew. McKinzie has been ruled out of the Santa Anita Derby because of injury but he hasn’t been called off the Kentucky Derby trail. Everyone was hoping for the McKinzie vs. Bolt d’Oro battle in the Santa Anita Derby but losing McKinzie doesn’t mean Baffert won’t have someone in there. He’s floated the idea that he might move Justify into that spot. He could also keep Solomini at home instead of sending him to the Wood Memorial. Whatever happens, you can expect the SA Derby field to be a little bigger with no McKinzie.

--The curse of Apollo. It’s a stat you’re probably sick of, but no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without being raced as a 2 year old. This year, there are two top-shelf horses who fit that bill. They were mentioned in the previous two items. There is Justify and Magnum Moon. They are currently scheduled to run against each other in the Arkansas Derby, but Justify could end up in Arcadia. We should know on Monday, but definitely by Wednesday.

--Mendelssohn for real? Mendelssohn’s crushing win in the UAE Derby by 18 ¾ lengths has people excited. But horses that come from Dubai never really amount to much in the Kentucky Derby. Last year, Thunder Snow, who won the $10-million Dubai World Cup on Saturday, didn’t even make it 50 yards before he was pulled up for unruly behavior. Still, shouldn’t it happen sometime that a Dubai winner dominates? Most think no.

--Gronkowski’s equipment. I’m just sayin’, given all the shenanigans the Super Bowl losers have pulled in the past should mean the Churchill officials need to assign an extra steward to examine a horse named after the Patriot receiver. Gronkowski won a European automatic qualifying race, so he’s in. Is there an advantage to a deflated saddle?

Reader Bryan Geyer offered this historical perspective:

“The depth of talent apparent in this year's Derby crop seems exceptional. At this point, it looks like this field offers the potential equivalent to 1957, when the order of finish was Iron Liege, Gallant Man, Round Table, and Bold Ruler. Of course, it will take some 2-3 more years of graded stakes to render final judgment, but the promise is impressive.

“I remember the race well. I listened on AM radio (WCBS-NY) because I was unable to finish my repair work on my parents' TV set in time for the broadcast. Bryan Field, one of the very best, called the race. It was in the '57 Derby that Bill Shoemaker, up on Gallant Man, fatefully misjudged the finish line, undoubtedly costing his mount the win. Bold Ruler won the Preakness, and Gallant Man took the Belmont Stakes. Round Table later became one of the finest grass (and handicap) champions in American racing.”

Thanks for the perspective, Bryan.

Let’s take a look at who’s in and who’s on the bubble for this year.

In the race: Audible (110 points), Noble Indy (110), Mendelssohn (100), Bolt d’Oro (64), Enticed (63), Bravazo (54), Promises Fulfilled (52), Magnum Moon (50), Quip (50), Runaway Ghost (50), Lone Sailor (42), McKinzie (40), Rayya (40), Hofburg (40), Gronkowski (automatic qualifier).

On the bubble: Good Magic (34), Solomini (34), My Boy Jack (32), Flameaway (30), Firenze Fire (29), Free Drop Billy (24), Catholic Boy (24).

That’s 22 horses for 20 spots, with four major preps to go.

Santa Anita review

Vasilika was the easy winner of Sunday’s feature, the $40,000 March Madness Starter Handicap. Running for Jerry Hollendorfer the 4-year-old filly won 1 1/8-mile turf race by 1 ½ lengths.

She was the even-money favorite in the eight-horse field. Her payoffs were $4.00, $2.60 and $2.20.

“This means a lot to our stable,” assistant trainer Dan Ward told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “We’ve won the March Madness four times now and it’s a race we point for. … This filly is moving in the right direction, no question. We’ll probably look at a first condition allowance next time.”

Flavien Prat was the jockey.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday.

There were no big races on Sunday.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa.

Now, here is the star of the show, Sunday’s results. We’ll be back on Thursday.

ANATOLIAN HEAT chased off the rail, came out three deep into the stretch, drifted in some in midstretch, then came out and rallied under some left handed urging to gain the lead three wide in deep stretch and proved best. THE CRITICAL WAY sped to the early lead off the inside then stalked off the rail, angled in some leaving the hill, bid between foes a sixteenth out and edged a rival for the place. ERIC THE TROJAN angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch then angled in again in upper stretch, came out in midstretch and finished well. BRANDOTHEBARTENDER three deep early, chased outside a rival, came out on the dirt crossing and four wide into the stretch and had a mild late bid. ANN ARBOR EDDIE had speed between horses then dueled outside a rival and bumped with that one on the hill, regained the lead in upper stretch, inched away in midstretch and weakened late. FLY TO MARS went up inside to duel for the lead and bumped with his pace rival on the hill, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. TOUCHED BY AUTISM chased a bit off the rail, came out under urging in the stretch, had the rider lose the whip in deep stretch and lacked a rally. Rail on hill at 7 feet.

CONQUEST FLATTERME had good early speed and dueled three deep, took a short lead leaving the turn and drew clear under a couple taps with the whip turned down, a brisk hand ride and a hold late. DEVIL'S BEAUTY dueled between horses, put a head in front midway on the turn, fought back leaving the turn and into the stretch and held second. ADIOS CALI went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn, came out in midstretch and just held third. SCATHING dropped back off the rail early, was sent along then pulled while chasing the pace outside a rival, continued off the inside on the turn, came out some in the stretch and was edged for the show. CORONADO COOL saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back inside on the turn and weakened.

RHETTBUTLER stalked off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came three deep into the stretch, took the lead outside a foe in midstretch, drifted in and won clear under urging. CATABILITY three deep early, chased off the rail then moved up a bit off the fence, came out leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch and gained the place. OUR TIGER'S BOY dueled three deep then outside a rival leaving the turn and into the stretch, fought back in midstretch and held third between foes late. CHIQUILIN saved ground chasing the pace, came out nearing the sixteenth pole and was edged for the show three deep on the line. CAPTAIN N. BARRON had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and was edged for a minor award. FABRICATION settled inside, saved ground on the turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. HARBOR DRIVE dueled between horses, dropped back a bit off the rail leaving the turn and weakened. RAISE THE GAMBLE chased off the rail then outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and gave way.

VASILIKA prompted the pace outside a rival then stalked off the rail early on the backstretch, re-bid between foes then outside that rival on the second turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and proved best under urging. MELISSA JANE (GB) broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, swung out into the stretch and edged a rival late for the place. MISS BOOM BOOM bobbled and was bumped at the break, angled in and stalked inside, came out into the stretch and lost second late. REVENUE VIRGINIUS chased between horses then outside a rival on the second turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and weakened. SO GOLDEN broke a bit slowly, came off the rail on the first turn, chased three deep on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and also weakened. SAIDA pulled between horses then stalked three deep, bid three wide a half mile out, fell back between horses on the second turn and also weakened. PRINCESS KENDRA settled outside then off the rail, angled in some on the second turn and lacked a response in the drive. LOOKINFORADANGER broke out and bumped a rival, took the early lead and angled in, dueled inside, inched away briefly early on the backstretch, fought back inside into and on the second turn and weakened in the stretch.

TODOS SANTOS dueled outside the runner-up throughout and held on gamely under urging between foes late. RANSOMED had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back along the rail through a long drive and continued gamely to the wire. WINNER'S DREAM angled in and stalked inside, came out and was in a bit tight off heels past the quarter pole then came three wide into the stretch and finished willingly late outside the top pair. LITTLE NATI drifted four wide into the first turn, stalked four wide then three deep leaving the backstretch, drifted five wide into the stretch and bested the others. GEMINI JOURNEY came off the rail on the first turn and chased between horses, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. BLONDY'S REWARD saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside into the stretch and weakened. OUTA HERE four wide into the first turn, settled off the rail, dropped back into and on the second turn and gave way. TIZ ADORE broke a bit slowly, angled in then came out three deep between foes on the first turn to chase the pace, dropped back leaving the backstretch and was eased but walked off.

SHY CARMELITA saved ground chasing the pace, came off the rail past midstretch, bid between foes to gain the lead in deep stretch, inched away under left handed urging and held. CAUSEWAY CAROLYN stalked off the rail then outside a rival, came out some in the stretch and surged late. ZAFFINAH (IRE) had speed off the rail then dueled three deep, stalked off the inside leaving the hill, came three wide into the stretch and held third. BOWIE went up inside to duel for the lead, inched away leaving the hill, continued on well to deep stretch and weakened late. PRICEDTOPERFECTION chased off the rail then a bit off the fence leaving the hill and outside a rival into the stretch and did not rally. ANGEL ALLIE settled off the pace inside and saved ground to no avail. FUERZA unhurried outside a rival down the hill, came out three deep into the stretch and also lacked a rally. SPIN ME A KISS had good early speed and dueled between horses then outside a rival, stalked just off the inside leaving the hill and weakened in the stretch. Rail on hill at 7 feet.

WANDERING PATROL broke a bit slowly, went up inside to stalk the pace, waited briefly leaving the turn, bid along the rail in the stretch to gain the lead and won clear under vigorous handling and a long hold late. LOVING LYNDA chased outside then four wide into and on the turn and into the stretch and gained the place. ZILLINDA stalked between horses on the backstretch and turn, continued outside a rival into the stretch and edged foes for third three deep on the line. GOT AN OBSESSION angled in and dueled outside a rival, came out some into the stretch and lost the show between foes late. COCO KISSES broke a bit slowly, went up inside to stalk the pace, continued along the rail on the turn, got through inside in the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. BELLA SIERRA stalked outside then three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. WHATA FLIRT was in a good position stalking the pace outside a rival then three wide into and on the turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. WARM IT UP settled off the rail on the backstretch and turn, swung four wide into the stretch and was not a threat. WHOA NESSIE bobbled slightly at the start, had speed inside to duel for the lead. PULPITINTHESKY hesitated to be away slowly, went up between foes then chased off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a further response.

IKE WALKER dueled five wide then four wide on the backstretch and three deep into the second turn, battled outside a rival on that turn, took the lead into the stretch, fought back off the rail in midstretch and held on gamely under left handed urging between foes late. KID CHARMING broke a bit slowly, saved ground off the pace, moved up inside into and through the stretch and finished well along the fence. DONWORTH chased between horses then four wide into and on the second turn, bid three deep into the stretch and outside the winner in midstretch and continued willingly. TWO THIRTY FIVE chased between horses then outside on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. SEAU stalked four wide between horses on the first turn and three deep on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick between foes. DEAL WITH IT DUDE saved ground stalking the pace, came a bit off the rail in the drive and split horses late. BELLERIN had speed to duel just off the rail then inside on the backstretch and second turn and weakened in the final furlong. CAMINO DE ESTRELLA angled in and settled inside then a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TRAPALANDA four wide into the first turn, dueled between horses, fell back on the second turn and weakened. UPPER ROOM stalked between horses, continued a bit off the rail on the second turn and also weakened. STARR OF QUALITY a bit washy at the gate, went three deep on the first turn, settled off the rail, dropped back on the second turn and had little left for the drive.

POINT GUARD angled in and settled outside a rival, moved up between foes then outside a rival on the second turn, bid outside the pacesetter to gain the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and held on gamely under left handed urging. HOLY GHOST angled in and chased inside then went outside a rival into the backstretch, continued three deep into and on the second turn and into the stretch and finished well. DESOLATION SOUND crossed to the inside and saved ground stalking the pace, steadied off heels and was shuffled back on the second turn, came out off heels for room in upper stretch, split horses in midstretch, bid inside and continued willingly. BARTLETT HALL settled outside a rival chasing the pace, split foes on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. COSA NOSTRA (IRE) saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and finished with some interest. GOODWILLAMBASSADOR fanned out into the first turn, stalked outside then bid four wide on the backstretch, stalked on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. JACK AND I had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away on the second turn, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. CAMPS BAY unhurried early, chased a bit off the rail, split horses leaving the backstretch, came out four wide into the stretch and could not offer the needed late kick. NATE'S ATTACK between foes early, drifted out into the first turn, stalked off the rail then bid three deep between foes on the backstretch and into the second turn, fell back on that turn and weakened. TRE five wide early, chased off the rail, went four wide leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and had little left for the drive. UNUSUAL CHAMP between horses early, dueled outside a rival then between foes on the backstretch and into the second turn, dropped back leaving that turn and gave way.