Drought May Idle 600,000 Acres of Farmland

In the first solid evidence of the drought’s impact on farming, state and federal agriculture representatives reported on Thursday that nearly 600,000 acres of agricultural land--about 6% of the state’s farmland--will lie fallow in 1991.

The acreage projections, compiled by the California Agricultural Statistics Service, were based on a survey of 2,320 California farms and ranches. They supported earlier estimates that pegged idled land at 500,000 to 1 million acres for the year.

Although the statistical report warned that four weeks of rain have fallen since the survey was taken, many state water and agriculture officials do not think that additional acreage will be planted.

“I don’t think the numbers will change too much because of these last rains,” said Dan Nelson, general manager of the San Luis Water District in Los Banos. “Both the federal and state systems have set their allocations for agriculture. We’re telling our growers not to anticipate any additional water supplies.”

In Nelson’s district, an anticipated 60% of the 57,500 acres will lie idle in 1991 because of the drought. The district relies heavily on federal water, which was cut back by 75% to farmers. The state water project has cut agricultural deliveries by 100%.

The numbers reported Thursday suggest that 582,000 acres normally planted with cotton, rice, wheat, barley, hay, sugar beets and dry edible beans will remain fallow. Because the survey was taken on March 1, before the rain began, more land could actually be planted, the report said.

Jason Peltier, manager of the Central Valley Project Water Assn., said he expected to see higher projections for idled acreage. Even so, he said, the economic impact will be dramatic. With 582,000 acres idled, that’s a $582-million loss in crop value alone.

“The rule of thumb is that you use a multiplier of 3 to 4 to figure out total economic impact of something like the drought,” Peltier said. Fewer crops means fewer jobs, and “that’s the real important element--job impacts.”

The major acreage loser is wheat, which will fall by 230,000 acres; cotton, one of the thirstier crops planted in California, is No. 2, with a reduction of 190,000 acres. Rice comes in third, losing 90,000 acres.

Calcot Ltd., a cotton growers cooperative based in Bakersfield, contends that the report underestimates the cotton acreage that will be fallow. Calcot figures that 245,000 acres of Upland cotton will be idled in 1991.

On the bright side, even Calcot’s current prediction of 825,000 acres is up from its January estimate of 650,000 acres.

The decreased supply of cotton could mean higher prices, said Catherine Merlo, a Calcot spokeswoman.