New Draft Strategy: The Future Is Now : Pro football: Teams look for players to make immediate impact. Ki-Jana Carter should go first.

It’s time for the 60th annual NFL draft, a combination live auction and telethon, a two-day show at New York’s Paramount Theatre featuring helmet phones, harangues from experts with bad haircuts and 300-pound men wearing silk suits and baseball caps.

But the focus will be on a muddy field in San Francisco.

It was there, three months ago, that the league realized more than ever before that these two days could affect everything that happens in the next 363.

In a game between the NFL’s best teams, the San Francisco 49ers’ two rookie first-round draft picks stormed over and around the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys’ first-round pick stood on the sidelines.

Thanks in part to defensive tackle Bryant Young and fullback William Floyd, the 49ers won the NFC championship and eventually the Super Bowl.

Because of their selection of defensive end Shante Carver, not even good enough to be activated that afternoon, the Cowboys might take years to recover.

Draft days have become sudden-impact days.

The first two rounds will be conducted today, with the final five rounds Sunday.

“The days of sequentially building depth through the draft and having a five-year plan are pretty much over,” New England Patriot Coach Bill Parcells said. “You can’t afford the long-term luxury of trying to develop (players) over a three- or four-year period. By the time you do that, they’re ready for free agency and they’re gone.”

This is why Penn State running back Ki-Jana Carter will be the first pick today, either by the expansion Carolina Panthers or another team willing to sell its soul for him.

Bobby Beathard, San Diego Charger general manager, said he cannot be compared to the Cowboys’ Emmitt Smith . . . because Carter can be better.

“(Smith) is a great back, but when you’re talking about this guy, I think you’re talking about Gale Sayers, O.J. Simpson. You’re talking about that kind of back,” Beathard said.

Maybe what sold everyone was Carter’s workout in March, when he took the field despite flu, amazing everyone even while stopping several times for fear of throwing up.

“I kept saying, ‘Hold on, hold on,’ ” Carter said. “I got home that afternoon and slept until the next day. I guess I went out there because I didn’t want to disappoint anybody.”

A need for instant gratification is also why USC offensive tackle Tony Boselli will be the second pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars, the highest Trojan selected since Ricky Bell was the first overall choice in 1977.

“Boselli is a man mountain,” said Bob Ackles, Arizona assistant general manager. “He’ll be great this year, and for the next 10 years.”

The sudden-impact syndrome will be noticeable throughout today’s first round, where past talk of “projects” will be replaced with simple talk of “players.”

--Warren Sapp, the Miami defensive lineman once thought to be the best player in the draft, should still be one of the top six picks despite his positive marijuana test at the February scouting combines.

“This guy can have impact on your line right now, guaranteed,” said Mike Allman, Seattle Seahawk director of player personnel. “And after all, if you are going to penalize somebody for a trace of marijuana, I bet there would be a whole lot of people in trouble . . . including a lot of sportswriters.”

--Steve McNair, the Alcorn State quarterback, is expected to be drafted third by the Houston Oilers but with protests by Oiler Coach Jeff Fisher and quarterback coach Jerry Rhome.

McNair scored a sub-par 15 on his Wonderlic Personnel Test, a learning-capacity exam administered to draft prospects, and the coaching staff worries that it will take too long to teach him.

With Cody Carlson as the Oilers’ starting quarterback, only Jacksonville stands between them and another last-place finish in the AFC Central.

--While Carolina is expected to keep the first pick and take Carter, with whom they already have begun negotiations, at least two teams could make them offers involving multiple players and picks.

That type of trade for a draft pick has rarely worked. But the Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings need a top running back if they even hope to have a chance at making the playoffs next season. Despite claims by the Vikings that they will not trade up, don’t believe anything anyone says the day before the draft.

--Twelve of the first 18 picks could be offensive players. That includes three wide receivers, three running backs and one tight end who could all be in the starting lineup by Halloween.

UCLA wide receiver J.J. Stokes will be the Bruins’ second first-round pick in two years, joining linebacker Jamir Miller, selected 10th overall by Arizona. Colorado running back Rashaan Salaam could be the fourth Heisman Trophy winner drafted by the Raiders’ Al Davis, joining Tim Brown, Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen.

--Only three juniors have made the Pro Bowl in their first NFL season. Yet there should be six juniors taken in the first round, all offering the promise of immediate help.

That includes Carter, Salaam, Sapp, defensive ends Derrick Alexander of Florida State and Mike Mamula of Boston College and tackle Korey Stringer of Ohio State.

“Juniors are usually overpaid and sit on the bench. . . . It’s a matter of making a mental adjustment,” Indianapolis General Manager Bill Tobin said.

--Gone are the sleepers.

It is possible that only two players in the first round will be from non-Division I colleges. And McNair of Alcorn State was one of the most celebrated collegians last year, while defensive end Shawn King of Northeast Louisiana State comes from the school that recently produced Vincent Brisby, Roosevelt Potts and Greg Robinson.

But another could be Hugh Douglas, an overachieving defensive end from Central State in Ohio. He is an Al Davis special, a little-known player whom the Raiders might take in the first round. That will, of course, cause other general managers to shake their heads in wonder.

Especially this year.

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NFL Notes

Green Bay reserve quarterback Mark Brunell was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars for two choices. The Packers draft 22nd, and had been looking for additional opportunities in the second and third rounds. General Manager Ron Wolf said the Jacksonville deal involves a third-round pick, or 66th overall, and a fifth-round pick, or 170th. Agent Frank Bauer said Brunell turned down a four-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles worth $3.8 million for the three-year pact with the Jaguars, which guarantees Brunell $3.1 million and the possibility of more in incentives.

NFL Draft Updates

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

MOCK DRAFT

Times NFL columnist Bill Plaschke takes a look at how today’s draft might go, with teams in order of selection and their projected picks:

1. CAROLINA: Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State

Even if Panthers trade this pick, he will still be No. 1 overall. He’s the second coming of Emmitt Smith.

2. JACKSONVILLE: Tony Boselli, OT, USC

Jaguar roster has no tackles that have started an NFL game. Boselli is a perfect cornerstone for next decade.

3. HOUSTON: Steve McNair, QB, Alcorn State

Coaches don’t want him, he won’t be ready for at least a year, but owner and his empty stadium need him. And Cody Carlson isn’t exactly Warren Moon.

4. WASHINGTON: Michael Westbrook, WR, Colorado

He reminds Redskin Coach Norv Turner of Michael Irvin, but they make this pick only if they don’t trade up with Carolina to get Carter. If Carolina picks here, they take Penn State quarterback Kerry Collins.

5. CINCINNATI: Kevin Carter, DE, Florida

Big, smart, the next Bruce Smith. And running-poor Bengals think the only franchise running back in the draft already has been taken.

6. ST. LOUIS: Warren Sapp, DT, Miami

Once considered the best player in the draft, his stock has dropped as teams have decided to draft for immediate need instead of best available athlete. Positive marijuana test didn’t help. Sean Gilbert moves outside, Sapp takes his place.

7. TAMPA BAY: Mike Mamula, DE, Boston College

This team desperately needs a pass rusher. On paper, Mamula is best defensive prospect in draft. But wasn’t Keith McCants good on paper once too?

8. SEATTLE: Joey Galloway, WR, Ohio State

This pick was going to be J.J. Stokes of UCLA until Stokes ran slow during workout. Galloway is not only fastest player in draft, but one of the strongest. Rick Mirer is thrilled.

9. NEW YORK JETS: Kerry Collins, QB, Penn State

If Collins is still here, even Boomer Esiason fans realize that Jets must take him. Knowing Boomer, Collins could be starting by end of the season.

10. CLEVELAND: Kyle Brady, TE, Penn State

This pick makes Browns legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Imagine trying to cover Andre Rison, Michael Jackson, Derrick Alexander and this 6-foot-6 target.

11. MINNESOTA: Ellis Johnson, DT, Florida

They would like to trade up and pluck McNair to learn under aging Moon, but if they can’t, this guy would be sufficient replacement for Henry Thomas.

12. PHILADELPHIA: Shawn King, DE, Northeast Louisiana

They have loved this guy since he put on quickness and strength show at the Senior Bowl. Fits well on aging defensive line.

13. NEW ORLEANS: Derrick Alexander, DE, Florida State

Who would have thought that Saints would ever need defense more than offense? They need a player like this to rebuild glory days of Pat Swilling and Rickey Jackson.

14. BUFFALO: Reuben Brown, OT, Pittsburgh

Free agency and body fat have gutted a once-strong offensive line. Jim Kelly might retire if they don’t take a load like Brown, who probably will be moved to guard.

15. INDIANAPOLIS: Korey Stringer, OT, Ohio State

Mel Kiper Jr. probably will criticize Colt General Manager Bill Tobin again this year, as Stringer is overweight blob. But if they can’t get a quarterback like Kerry Collins, their next priority is to save Jim Harbaugh and open more holes for Marshall Faulk.

16. ARIZONA: J.J. Stokes, WR, UCLA

The good news is that Stokes becomes the only man within 200 miles of Phoenix who can catch an NFL pass. The bad news is that Stokes must play for Buddy Ryan, who spent the early part of last season feuding with another first-round pick from UCLA, linebacker Jamir Miller.

17. NEW YORK GIANTS: Tyrone Wheatley, RB, Michigan

Rodney Hampton is getting old and injury prone. A nice backfield mate for young quarterback Dave Brown.

18. RAIDERS: Rashaan Salaam, RB, Colorado

Al Davis never met a Heisman Trophy winner he didn’t like. If Salaam is gone, Davis is also in love with undersized defensive end Hugh Douglas of NAIA Central State (Ohio), an intriguing John Randle-type player to replace flaky Scott Davis.

19. KANSAS CITY: Mark Fields, LB, Washington State

As there are no Joe Montanas in this draft, Chiefs can stay out of the AFC West cellar only with defense.

20. DETROIT: Ty Law, CB, Michigan

This team is sick of fighting Brett Favre, Moon and Craig Erickson with a defense that is last in the league in stopping opponents on third down.

21. CHICAGO: James Stewart, RB, Tennessee

Perhaps the best pass-catching big back in the draft. The sort of bruising hard worker that Coach Dave Wannstedt loves.

22. GREEN BAY: Napoleon Kaufman, RB, Washington

A 5-foot-8 back who plays big. With only Edgar Bennett and Dorsey Levens standing behind Favre, the Packers desperately need a ballcarrier.

23. NEW ENGLAND: Luther Elliss, DT, Utah

Bill Parcells longs for the reincarnation of running back Ottis Anderson, but there will be no running backs left who are worth this pick. When in doubt, Parcells stocks up on defense.

24. MINNESOTA: Chad May, QB, Kansas State

If Vikings don’t take a quarterback with their first pick, this man will be the heir apparent to Moon. He is everything the Vikings were trying to find in Jim McMahon--brash, courageous--but with the added bonus of natural ability.

25. MIAMI: Blake Brockermeyer, OT, Texas

The only area that needs improving with the early 1995 AFC favorites. Come to think of it, this wouldn’t have been a bad pick for the Raiders.

26. ATLANTA: Bobby Taylor, CB, Notre Dame

Still looking for another Deion. This guy isn’t it, but who is?

27. PITTSBURGH: Jimmy Hitchcock, CB, North Carolina

Best story here is whether running back Barry Foster finally will be traded on a draft day. Hitchcock could help Steelers forget that they lost AFC championship last year on a long pass.

28. DALLAS: Billy Milner, OT, Houston

The offensive line is falling apart, and that was before tackle Erik Williams’ recent legal problems. Owner Jerry Jones reportedly wants to trade out of the round--perhaps to save himself from a second consecutive embarrassing first-round pick?--but this will be a good choice if Cowboys stay.

29. SAN DIEGO: Craig Newsome, CB, Arizona State

Bobby Beathard, Charger general manager, wants to trade high enough to steal linebacker Fields. If he can’t, Newsome is perfect player to push struggling Dwayne Harper out of lineup.

30. SAN FRANCISCO: Rodney Thomas, RB, Texas A&M;

This should prove that no, Derrick Moore is not considered a suitable replacement for Rickey Watters. Officials think Thomas is a reach at this spot, but after losing Watters to the Eagles, they don’t have a choice. Reminds them of Kansas City’s first-round pick from A&M; last year, solid running back Greg Hill.

31. JACKSONVILLE: Brian DeMarco, OT, Michigan State

Coach Tom Coughlin, a former New York Giant assistant under Parcells, understands where the game is won. And with DeMarco and Boselli protecting Steve Beuerlein as 300-pound bookends, the Jaguars will have a chance to win a couple.

32. CAROLINA: Matt O’Dwyer, OG, Northwestern

They still need a young quarterback, but he can come two picks later in the second round, where his price will be considerably cheaper. You listening, Kordell Stewart or Rob Johnson? Meanwhile, Ki-Jana Carter now has somebody to block for him.

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NOTES: Carolina and Jacksonville, because of their expansion status, each receive two first-round picks.

Teams with two first-round selections, or those picking out of sequence from last year’s finish, do so as a result of previous trades.