An Unlikely Trio With High Musical Hopes

Watch this week for albums to arrive in stores from three very different rock bands--the Smashing Pumpkins, Oasis and Steely Dan--each looking to prove something. The Smashing Pumpkins hope to rebound from disappointing sales of their last disc with the new “MACHINA/the machines of God” and have been grappling with instability in the group’s lineup and management. Oasis, also dealing with personnel changes (although brothers Noel and Liam Gallagher remain), wants “Standing on the Shoulder of Giants” to disprove critics who say the band continues to plow the same musical ground. Oasis is also looking to rediscover the massive U.S. success that has been elusive since “(What’s the Story) Morning Glory?” in 1995. And for Steely Dan, its new disc “Two Against Nature” is nothing less than the group’s first album since 1980, which is about a century in dog years on today’s fickle pop charts. How will each fare at the nation’s record stores? A survey of some top retailers suggests that none of the three is projected to crack the Top 10 with first-week sales, but the shared sentiment among merchants is that it will take more time to tell the tale. “The Pumpkins definitely have something to prove after that last album, but they have a pretty strong, loyal fan base and will by far do the best among the three,” says Bob Feterl, regional manager for Tower Records. “I don’t think any of them will debut even in the Top 20. Oasis will do well, but Steely Dan is the biggest question mark of the three.” Retailers said Oasis will need a strong pop-radio hit to score the U.S. commercial success that comes easily to the band in Britain. “Here, they need to win one fan at a time,” says Gary Arnold, an executive with the Best Buy chain. Merchants said the Pumpkins will need touring and other appearances to reconnect with and energize their casual fans, while the challenge for Steely Dan is to make old fans aware of the new disc and find new listeners too. Arnold pointed to the recent success of Grammy darling Santana as a possible blueprint for the jazz-rock outfit. “The new Steely Dan is a brilliant album and it will start slow, but so did Santana’s last year,” Arnold said. “And if I said then that it was the album to watch, everybody would have yawned.”

Wide, Wide World for American Movies

The already frenzied world of international film buying might be especially dizzying this year, with the world’s healthy economy spurring a growth in potential buyers for American films abroad. That’s the word from organizers of the American Film Market conference, which continues through Wednesday in Santa Monica. The number of buyers at the one-week AFM is up 7% from last year, with more than 7,000 people expected to attend. There was also an increase in the number of films available: 260 films are up for grabs this year, compared to 210 last year. More than 80% of the films are American products, suggesting the continuing strength of American movie making--particularly independent film. The largest growth in buyers this year came from Australia, New Zealand and Asia, said Jonathan Wolf, the AFM’s vice president. “There is very much a sense of enthusiasm,” Wolf said. “The international film marketplace is continuing to get healthier as the middle classes grow in the developing world. People have more of a disposable income and that affects American entertainment [sales] abroad.” Some of the films premiering this year include Burt Reynolds’ “The Last Producer,” Alfonso Arau’s “Picking Up the Pieces” and Emilio Estevez’s “Rated X.” With Latino fever hitting the U.S. cultural mainstream, the AFM held a panel discussion Friday on the future of Latino-themed projects for the big screen. Panelists agreed that the Latino film market in the U.S. is on the verge of exploding, just as the music scene did this year. Two seminars on finding new sources for financing films are planned for today and Tuesday. “It’s been a pretty smooth show,” Wolf said. “I think the rain might have helped people get focused on business.”

Sweeping Toward a Sweeps Finish

In television, everyone gets to be No. 1 somewhere, whether it’s among crush-prone teenage girls (the WB) or semiliterate boys and young men with a fondness for wrestling (UPN). Ultimately, however, only two measures really count: the total number of viewers--a cultural touchstone--and how many young adults tune in, which most closely corresponds with advertising rates and thus revenues. Thanks to “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire,” ABC will win the February rating sweeps (which conclude Wednesday) by the first criterion in commanding fashion: Through Thursday, ABC was attracting an average of 15.6 million viewers in prime time per night, compared to 14 million for second-place NBC. The peacock network, however, is still proudly clinging to slim hopes among adults age 18 to 49, locked in a tie with ABC by that measure, with third-place Fox far behind. ABC stacked the deck in its favor by scheduling additional episodes of “Millionaire” tonight and Wednesday, but even if NBC falls short, the network still has one category in which it’s sure to win: viewing from 10:30 to 11 p.m., a key half-hour in the eyes of affiliates because it leads directly into their late local newscasts.

--Compiled by Times staff writers