Step Right Up

THE LAST FIVE PLAYERS WHO WON THEIR FIRST MAJORS:

1. David Duval, 2001 British Open. He was 0 for 26 in majors before breaking through at Lytham, where he had 12 birdies, two bogeys and zero missed chances.

2. Retief Goosen, 2001 U.S. Open. Who saw him coming? Before Southern Hills, he missed two cuts and tied for 12th in his three previous U.S. Open appearances. He was regarded as a 32-year-old underachiever. Not anymore.

3. Paul Lawrie, 1999 British Open. His triumph was an out-and-out fluke, thanks to Jean Van de Velde’s monumental collapse and Justin Leonard’s failure in the playoff at Carnoustie. Just don’t expect seconds.

4. Vijay Singh, 1998 PGA Championship. It’s not as though he didn’t work hard enough to do it, but at 35 and after nine years of trying, he came through at Sahalee. (And seconded his major motion in the 2000 Masters.)

5. Mark O’Meara, 1998 Masters. He went 17 years and 56 majors without a victory, then broke through at 41. (And liked it so much he won his second major three months later at the British Open.)

THE NEXT FIVE PLAYERS WHO WILL WIN THEIR FIRST MAJOR:

1. Phil Mickelson. He’s 0 for 36 and counting, but if Duval can do it, if Goosen and Lawrie(!) can do it, so can Lefty. He has been close before, same as Duval, and at 31, he has a lot of chances left.

2. Sergio Garcia. Only 21, he has it all. The word is that when he wins one, he’ll win several. And no one will be surprised.

3.Thomas Bjorn. He’s learning to play well on the big stage, is not intimidated by Tiger and is an established star in Europe.

4. Darren Clarke: Time is running out for the 33-year-old from Northern Ireland whose, shall we say, dedication has been suspect. His game definitely hasn’t been.

5. Adam Scott: This 21-year-old Australian is the real deal. He’s coached by Butch Harmon (same as Tiger), hits the ball a mile (same as Tiger), is afraid of nothing (same as Tiger). Schooled at Nevada Las Vegas, he’s going to hit the jackpot.

FIVE PLAYERS WITH NO SHOT AT WINNING A MAJOR:

1. Colin Montgomerie. There’s no reason Monty can’t win a major, except that he continually fails to do so. At 38, he’s close to being out of range.

2. Michael Campbell. His claim to fame is that he tied for third in the British Open at St. Andrews, but that was six years ago. Now he’s 33, has won four times on the European Tour and has trouble making cuts. Not the recipe for major success.

3. Stewart Cink. He’s 28 and way too young to give up on, so consider this as a kick in the pants for him to get revved up before it’s too late and he’s making the turn to Montyville.

4. Scott Hoch. Nobody spent much time associating Hoch with having a remote shot at a major until he caught our attention with a two-victory year at 45. But he’s still burned by his 1989 Masters giveaway that let Nick Faldo triumph.

5. Jeff Maggert. Two top 10s all year . . . age 37 . . . lost his drive? Hey, like everyone else on the list, he can still prove otherwise, can’t he?