Study: NFL Franchise Would Succeed in L.A.

An NFL franchise would succeed in Los Angeles, but it would require a near-perfect combination of facility quality, ownership commitment and promotion to do so, according to a confidential document obtained by The Times.

The study, conducted by an independent research firm when L.A. was being considered for an expansion franchise in 1999, was commissioned by the league and distributed to selected team owners. Among the findings:

L.A. could be the best premium-seat market in the country--prime spots could command Permanent Seat License fees in the neighborhood of $6,000--but the city might be the nation’s worst market in which to sell season tickets.

More than one-third of the respondents from Orange County preferred a stadium in L.A., while only 11% of the L.A. respondents preferred an Orange County site.

The optimal stadium capacity is 66,000--expandable to 70,000 for a Super Bowl--which is as small as possible to stoke ticket demand and help avoid TV blackouts.

At their annual meetings last week, several NFL owners said they sensed apathy from L.A. and wondered whether interest was high enough to support an NFL team. The subject of the NFL returning to L.A. has gathered steam in recent weeks, in part because of a Philip Anschutz-led effort to explore the possibility of building a football stadium in downtown L.A.

“We have every reason to think that when we get a team there and the fans have their own home team to root for, that the interest will be there,” NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue said. “When you’re talking about an interest that’s been in a sport for the better part of a century, and a tradition post-World War II of supporting the NFL--whether it be one team or two--I guess the question really is: Is there any evidence to think somehow it’s gone underground like a groundhog? We don’t think that’s the case.”

Still, the league paid for the survey, which involved nearly 700 interviews from the L.A.-Orange County market and examined such issues as TV ratings, demographics and buying power. It was conducted by Muhleman Marketing Inc. and dated Feb. 25, 1999. A similar report was prepared for Houston, which outbid L.A. for the league’s 32nd franchise.

The landscape has changed in the three years since the report was issued. For instance, the vast majority of those surveyed preferred an expansion franchise over an existing team that relocated to L.A. But that option is no longer available; the league has no plans to expand in the foreseeable future.

By far the most likely team to relocate to L.A.--provided it has a suitable stadium--is the San Diego Chargers. Already, the Chargers are negotiating with Anschutz to move their training camp from La Jolla to his $120-million sports complex in Carson, beginning in summer 2003.

It’s illogical to think Anschutz would construct a football stadium without rock-solid assurances beforehand that a team was lined up to play in it as soon as it was completed.

Said one NFL owner: “Anschutz isn’t going to build it on spec.”

Likewise, league officials insist, their belief that L.A. is fertile ground for an NFL team is not based entirely on blind faith and solid TV ratings. They consider the 1999 study as part of their due diligence. Then again, the study was paid for by the league.

“[Muhleman] is a reputable firm, but you look at who’s paying for the study and the results are not that surprising,” said David Carter of the Sports Business Group, an L.A.-based consulting firm. “You can make a compelling case either way, depending on what angle you’re coming from.”

Although the report focused primarily on the Coliseum and Carson proposals, respondents were asked if there was a location--regardless of any proposed sites--where they would like to see a new stadium located. The Coliseum led that poll (23%), followed by Carson (15%), Anaheim (10%), Dodger Stadium (8%), Orange County (8%), downtown (6%), El Toro (5%) and Irvine (3%). Twenty-two percent of the responses were classified as “other.”

The report characterizes L.A. as a market in which “fascination comes before passion,” and therefore said it would be critically important to have a team featuring star players, and a unique in-stadium experience.

“If someone builds a stadium in L.A., it’s got to be the place to see and be seen,” Carter said. “It’s the old Forum Club magnified a hundred-fold.”

The report also points to an exceptional opportunity with the Latino community, which “appears to like NFL football almost as much as Major League Baseball.”

According to Joe Browne, one of the league’s senior vice presidents, the most popular English-speaking program in Hispanic households is “Monday Night Football.” NFL Europe is investigating a marketing relationship with F.C. Barcelona, among the world’s most popular soccer clubs.

“We’re finding that even with the changing demographics, there’s a lot of interest in our sport,” Tagliabue said. “We’re just going to have to do things right, beginning with the stadium.... Every indication we have in Los Angeles is the interest in the game is there at all levels.”

Even armed with the information from its 1999 study, Carter said, the league probably will be very careful and deliberate in its approach to L.A. this time.

“The NFL knows it can’t afford a third strike in this area,” he said. “They’ve got to get the right ownership group, the right team, and the right stadium. They can’t fail a third time.”