Racing! Both a tutorial on non-starters and a handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we look forward to a great 2-year-old filly race at Del Mar.

I got enough emails from folks about the seventh race Thursday at Del Mar that I thought that there may be a teachable moment in here. Here’s what happened.

It was a five-furlong allowance for $65,000. When the gate opened, the No. 9, Tule Fog emerged without a rider. It appeared as if jockey Santiago Gonzalez had stepped off and jumped on the ledge when his mount broke in the air. Tule Fog still ran the race. The stewards had to decide if Tule Fog was a starter or needed to be declared a non-starter with all the requisite refunds.

Here’s the race, just click here, and if you get to a little past the three-minute mark you’ll see the head on many times.

So, I went to Mike Marten, the communications czar of the California Horse Racing Board, for an explanation of the rule and the ruling. He consulted with Darrel McHargue and one of he Del Mar stewards. It’s a great tutorial. Here’s what he said.

“In each instance the stewards attempt to determine whether anyone or anything besides the jockey and horse caused the trouble. If the problem was self-caused, the horse remains a starter.

“(The next language does not address Thursday’s incident but it is needed for the overall description of the process.)

“There are times when the assistant starter must grab hold of a horse that is acting up. This must be done for safety reasons. And reaction time being what it is, there are instances when the assistant starter doesn’t let go until after the gate opens. This can cause the horse to break a step behind the field. But as long as the assistant starter lets go as quickly as his reaction time permits, that horse is considered an official starter because it goes back to the problem being self-caused. The assistant starter was just doing his job, trying to protect a horse that was acting up and its rider.

“(Now, back to Thursday’s incident.)

“I watched the race and inquiry Thursday in progress. It was difficult to see behind the gate but after repeated viewings it looked to me like the jockey was reacting to the horse just beginning to act up, so he was stepping off just as the gate opened. According to the stewards, the horse had dropped its head. This is how horses sometimes rear up. They begin by dropping the head. A jockey knows that, and can also anticipate from his feel of the horse, so that would explain why he began to dismount. Again, the key factor was self-caused.

“Here is the rule:

“Rule1696: The Start.

“(a) Except in cases of emergency, every horse shall be started from an approved starting gate by the starter. (b) If, in the opinion of the stewards, a horse did not receive a fair start through no fault of the horse, or gained an unfair advantage at the start, such horse may be declared a non-starter or may be declared a starter for purse money only and disregarded for pari-mutuel purposes. (1) The stewards shall void any claim deposited for a horse declared to be a non-starter. (2) Any horse determined to be a starter for purse money only is eligible to be claimed.

“Note the words ‘through no fault of the horse.’ That gets back to the problem being self-caused.”

Thanks, Mike. Very thorough. Remember, it’s the stewards’ job to interpret the rules. If you don’t like the rule the way its written, that’s a different issue.

News from Del Mar

The much anticipated next race of Instagrand won’t happen on Monday in the Del Mar Futurity as trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is looking for another spot for the 2-year-old. He won his first two races by a combined 20 ¼ lengths. Instead, Hollendorfer will send Rowayton to post in the seven-horse field. He won his only race by 1 ¾ lengths.

Roadster, for Bob Baffert, may be the new favorite. He won his debut by 4 ¼ and he’s from the barn of a two-time Triple Crown winner. Baffert also has Game Warrior in the race.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Normally, we look forward, but today, let’s see the thinking behind a $46 top-pick winner Rob’s subscribers had from Friday’s second race at Del Mar.

Rob, your thoughts?

“This was a great example of connections with no interest in ‘giving the race,’ but rather, training right up to this stakes race for the debut. How he paid $46 was amazing to us?! A great example of a well-meant debut runner.

“SECOND RACE: The I’m Smokin’ Stakes at six furlongs, a staple of this Meet for state bred 2-year-olds. Top selection is LISTING (#1). He’s got every right to be talented, and the fact Cecil has waited for this spot to debut, is a pretty positive sign. First, the drills are solid, very nice by Cecil standards. Secondly, he’s got two full brothers, both with talent, Green With Eddie (earned $127,000), and Mr. Zippers (earned $105,000), along with a full sister in More Complexity (earned $233,000). Expecting speed from the gate, looking for a wire to wire win first out. SILKEN PRINCE (#6) was another top pick debut winner for us at 5-1, but how he won was amazing really. He broke dead last, far back, and then began commencing a late run around the 3/8 mile pole, running on resolutely for the win. Today, Prat rides for Morey, back right on schedule with a pair of sharp ½ mile works, both from the gate to try and avoid the same slow start we saw in the debut.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-6-8

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“3 Oliver - Has already run four times to indicate his healthy nature, tries hard, has enough early speed to stay close throughout. Tough to leave out.

“8 Policy - Ideally drawn from this short eight hole, back quickly in 12 days with Drayden re-riding. Expecting improvement which certainly gives him a legitimate look here.

“TOP PICK: LISTING (#1 10-1 Gutierrez) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: SILKEN PRINCE (#6 5-1 Prat) $ Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Now, here’s a great cause

Near the entrance to the turf club and clubhouse at Del Mar there will be a special book signing from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. on Saturday. The book, by artist Dagmar Galleithner-Steiner with copy by Jay Hovdey of the Daily Racing Form, is a collection of pastel and pencil drawings of some of the great horses past and present. It’s called “The Art of Old Friends.”

Now, here’s the best part. All the proceeds of the $40.00 book will go to retired thoroughbreds at Old Friends Farm in Kentucky. That’s where retired race horses go to live out their lives after they’ve run out of careers.

And if that’s not enough to get you in line, Galleithner-Steiner and Hovdey will be joined by Bob and Jill Baffert and jockey Mike Smith. Doesn’t get any better than that.

Can’t get to Del Mar? You can just send a check to Old Friends.

If you want to know about Old Friends, read this really good story by Tod Leonard of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Just click here.

Del Mar review

The above-mentioned stakes, the $100,000 I’m Smokin’ Stakes for Cal-bred 2-year-olds going six furlongs, proved to have a big price. Listing rallied mid-stretch to win by 1 ¼ lengths. The Paul and Zillah Reddam colt was ridden, as usual, by Mario Gutierrez but the trainer was Ben Cecil. Doug O’Neill trains most of Reddam’s horses.

Listing paid $46.40, $17.40 and $7.80. policy was second and Oliver finished third. It was Listing’s first start.

“They said he’d been doing good,” Gutierrez said. “They said to stay back with him and let him get some experience. He responded perfectly. He relaxed and was running great. When I got to the quarter pole, I started to get excited. Then when we turned for home a hole opened and he went right through it. I thought he might run well, but this was a surprise. A very pleasant surprise.”

Del Mar preview

We’ve got a preview of the weekend of races online and in our print edition. Just click here. On Saturday, they have 11 races and two major stakes. There are five turf races. The first is the Grade 1 $300,000 Del Mar Debutante for 2-year-old fillies going seven furlongs. Post is a little after 3:30 p.m.

It’s a short field of five horses, three of which are so close they are difficult to separate. Brill, for Hollendorfer is 8-5, Bellafina for Simon Callaghan is 9-5 and Mother Mother, for Baffert, is 2-1. All won their last race and in the case of Brill and Mother Mother, their only race.

The other major stakes is the Grade 2 $200,000 John C. Mabee Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Cambodia, for trainer Tom Proctor and jockey Drayden Van Dyke, is the 5-2 favorite. Post is around 6:30 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10 (2 also eligible), 8, 12, 5, 8, 11, 12 (1 AE), 11, 9, 12 (1 AE), 10.

Big races preview

Before we get to these, note that Kentucky Downs has so much money that there are maiden special weights and allowance races that meet the $100,000 threshold. Now, a look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:15 Gulfstream (6): $100,000 Sharp Susan Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Entirely (9-5)

11:25 Kentucky Downs (1): $130,000 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Prompt (7-2)

12:10 Parx (6): $100,000 Dr. Teresa Garofalo Memorial Stakes, Penn-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Zipper’s Hero (7-5)

12:32 Kentucky Downs (3): $145,000 allowance/optional claimer, 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Commute (3-1)

12:37 Parx (7): $100,000 Mrs. Penny Stakes, Penn-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Sweet Bye and Bye/Enthusiastic Gal (1-1, coupled entry)

1:04 Parx (8): $100,000 Banjo Picker Sprint, Pen-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: The Man (6-5)

1:06 Kentucky Downs (4): $145,000 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile and 70 yards. Favorite: Pachinko (5-2)

1:09 Monmouth (8): Grade 3 $100,000 Violet Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Elysea’s World (5-2)

1:31 Parx (9): $100,000 Roanoke Stakes, Penn-breds 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Someday Jones (9-5)

1:41 Kentucky Downs (5): $140,000 allowance, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Cape Angel (7-2)

1:58 Parx (10): $100,000 Power By Far Stakes, Penn-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Advert (3-1)

2:09 Monmouth (10): Grade 3 $100,000 Red Bank Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Synchrony (6-5)

2:17 Kentucky Downs (6): $130,000 maiden special weight, fillies 2-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Devious Charm (7-2)

2:24 Woodbine (9): $100,000 Passing Mood Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs on turf. Favorite: She’s Got Fire (9-5)

2:30 Gulfstream (11): $200,000 Susan’s Girl Stakes, Fla-bred fillies 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Capture Your Dream (4-5)

2:39 Saratoga (9): Grade 3 $300,000 Saranac Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Raging Bull (2-1)

2:52 Kentucky Downs (7): $250,000 One Dreamer Stakes, Ky-breds 3 and up, 1 mile and 70 yards on turf. Favorite: On Leave (3-1)

3:03 Gulfstream (12): $100,000 Proud Man Stakes, 2-year-olds, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Timmy M. (5-2)

3:13 Saratoga (10): Grade 1 $350,000 Spinaway Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Chasing Yesterday (5-2)

3:26 Kentucky Downs (8): $750,000 Tourist Mile, 3 and up, 1 mile on the turf. Favorite: Mr. Misunderstood (2-1)

3:30 Del Mar (4): Grade 1 $300,000 Del Mar Debutante, fillies 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Brill (8-5)

3:36 Gulfstream (13): $200,000 Affirmed Stakes, Fla-bred 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Fully Loaded (8-5)

3:47 Saratoga (11): Grade 1 $750,000 Woodward Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Gunnevera (4-1)

3:58 Kentucky Downs (9): $400,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile, 2-year-olds, 1 mile on the turf. Favorite: Good Good (7-2)

4:17 Saratoga (12): Grade 2 $250,000 Glens Falls Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Land Mine (1-1)

4:27 Kentucky Downs (10): $400,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies, fillies 2-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Two Shakes (3-1)

6:30 Del Mar (10): Grade 2 $200,000 John C. Mabee Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Cambodia (5-2)

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 7 Beau Square (6-1)

Filly from the Jack Carava barn ran pretty well when facing similar at this abbreviated turf distance, finishing less than two lengths behind the winner after a slow start. If she comes out cleanly and stays closer to the pace, look for her to be right there in this competitive allowance/optional claimer.

Friday’s result: Oh Pretty Woman raced in traffic and steadied into the far turn, then made a decent stretch rally to finish a non-threatening third.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 4 Scorpion Excess (5-2)

I liked the speed this gelding showed vs. much tougher in last third-place Santa Rosa outing when battling inside two horses for the lead from the 3/8 to the ¼-poles. He shortens up to 4 ½ furlongs and trainer Marcia Stortz has enjoyed success locally with Bay Area shippers. He is one of two class droppers in the seven horse field where his six foes are winless in a combined 59 starts.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

FLIP THE COIN JAN sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, responded when challenged on the backstretch and second turn, inched away again a bit off the rail into the stretch, drifted out past midstretch and held sway under a couple cracks of the whip and steady handling. SAMDAR stalked outside a rival then pulled his way between horses midway on the backstretch, bid outside the winner nearing and on the second turn, continued just off the rail into the stretch and held second. WILD WILD KINGDOM stalked outside a rival then briefly three deep midway on the backstretch, continued outside a foe into and on the second turn, came out some in the stretch and edged rivals for the show between foes late. JACK AND I angled in and saved ground off the pace, advanced inside on the second turn and through the stretch and was edged for third. BUCKSTOPPER KIT saved ground chasing the pace, went outside a rival on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award outside foes. POINT GUARD stalked the pace inside then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, angled in on the second turn, came out some into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. HONEYMOONZ OVER close up stalking the pace inside, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and also lacked a rally. AQUILA a step slow to begin, chased outside a rival, dropped back on the second turn, angled to the inside leaving that turn and had little left for the stretch.

LISTING saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, bid between foes then took a short lead three deep in midstretch, inched away under urging and gamely prevailed. POLICY stalked three deep on the backstretch and turn, came four wide into the stretch and continued willingly but could not catch the winner. OLIVER had good early speed and dueled inside, brushed with a rival and fought back in midstretch then held third. SILKEN PRINCE broke a bit slowly, chased off the rail, came out leaving the turn and five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. BEA'S BOY saved ground chasing the pace, came out past midstretch and could not offer the necessary response. IRISH HEATWAVE dueled between horses, put a head in front leaving the turn, battled between foes while brushing with a rival in midstretch, drifted in late and weakened. HEY SAL was in a good position stalking the pace between horses then just off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. EIGHTY PROOF dueled three deep on the backstretch and turn, continued three wide into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

SUENO stalked four wide between horses on the backstretch and four wide on the turn and into the stretch, gained the lead three deep in midstretch, kicked clear and drifted in some under left handed urging to prove best. NO TREBLE had good early speed and inched away inside, dueled along the rail, fought back in midstretch and held second. MIND TRICK settled off the rail then inside, came out in midstretch and split horses late for the show. MYHOTRODLINCOLN stalked a bit off the rail then bid outside a rival to duel for the lead, fought back between horses in midstretch and was edged for third. MAYAN WARRIOR chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail into and on the turn, came out in upper stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award three wide on the line. HARLEQUIN saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. PERFECT DUDE stalked between horses, came out three deep into the stretch and weakened. VIOLENT BEHAVIOR broke a bit slowly, settled inside chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. PALACE SAGE stalked between horses then outside leaving the turn, angled out four wide into the stretch and weakened. YOU MUST CHILL stalked five wide, dropped back off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted in, gave way and was eased in the final furlong.

SENSE OF GLORY sped to the early lead and angled in, set the pace inside then a bit off the rail, angled in on the second turn, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and drew off. BAROQUE five wide into the first turn, stalked three deep on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and edged a rival for the place. KONA DREAMS stalked off the rail then three deep, angled in just off the inside on the second turn and outside a rival into the stretch and was edged for second. HARROVIAN saved ground stalking the pace throughout and was outfinished for the show. TRAPALANDA came a bit off the rail on the first turn, stalked between horses to the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. ON THE KEY broke a bit slowly, settled inside then a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the necessary rally. SUPER ECHELON settled off the rail, circled five wide into the stretch, came under urging in the drive then had the rider lose the whip past midstretch and lacked the needed rally. BRONZINO (FR) four wide into the first turn, chased off the rail, angled in some leaving the second turn and lacked a response in the stretch. SOUTH AMERICAIN stalked a bit off the rail then inside leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. BERNIN SENSATION broke a bit slowly, chased three deep to the stretch, dropped back in the drive and weakened.

THALIA saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, gained the lead nearing midstretch and won clear under some left handed urging. NOTHING BUT HEAT had speed between foes then stalked inside, came out into the stretch, bid between foes in upper stretch and bested the others. OH PRETTY WOMAN chased a bit off the rail then between foes, was bumped and steadied between foes into the second turn, found the rail into the stretch then split rivals late for the show. RADISH saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and was edged for third. SOCIAL ETIQUETTE had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the second turn, battled back in upper stretch and weakened in the final furlong. FULL COURT saved ground off the pace, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and improved position. INTO RISSA settled outside a rival, split horses four wide on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. MIDNIGHT CROSSING angled in and chased outside a rival, split horses three deep on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. DASHING DEBUT dueled four wide in the run to the first turn then battled outside a rival, fell back into the stretch and also weakened. HAS ANGEL WINGS chased outside a rival, angled in entering the stretch and also weakened. HERE COMES SUGAR stalked outside a rival then between horses leaving the backstretch, was bumped into the second turn, dropped back and angled in on that turn and gave way.

MISSMACHUPICCHU sped to the early lead off the rail angled in and set the pace inside, fought back on the turn, inched away into the stretch and drew clear under some urging. CASSIE BELLE stalked between horses then a bit off the rail to the stretch and split rivals late for the place. DEPENDE DE TI stalked just off the rail,, bid outside the winner on the turn and held third. SASSY KITTY close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail then inside into and on the turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and was edged for the show. SHE'S A SPY chased off the rail, went up four wide on the turn and five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SPICY CURRY stalked outside then three deep between foes on the turn and four wide into the stretch and also lacked the necessary response. TIZ YOUR WAY broke inward and a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and could not summon the needed late kick. DADDY'S MISTRESS chased just off the rail, came out three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and did not rally. JELLYBEANKRISTINE chased inside, split horses on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a further response. TINY TAP stalked between rivals on the backstretch and turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

SILKY SLEW saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside in the drive, gained the lead in deep stretch under some urging and gamely prevailed. OPERANDI stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail on the turn, took a short lead outside the pacesetter in midstretch, was three wide in deep stretch and held second. BATIQUITOS chased inside, steadied off heels into the turn, came out three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and got up outside foes late for the show. JUDICIAL pressed then stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch and split rivals late to be edged for third. LUCKY STUDENT stalked four wide then three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and was edged for a minor award between foes late. MAYCEE JO had good early speed and angled in outside a rival, inched away leaving the backstretch, angled in on the turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back in midstretch, was between foes in deep stretch and weakened late. TWISTED ROSIE broke a bit slowly, settled inside then a bit off the rail, angled in leaving the turn and lacked the needed rally. UNUSUALLY STYLISH stalked between horses then outside a rival on the turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. SWALLOWS INN GAL chased outside a rival then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and also lacked a rally. SILVER APPLES was in a good position stalking the pace between horses, steadied in tight into the turn, continued outside a rival and weakened in the stretch.

ALFAREED broke a bit slowly, chased outside, bid five wide leaving the backstretch then three deep on the second turn, took the lead outside a rival nearing the quarter pole and drew off under urging. ELEVATE broke slowly, went four wide into the first turn, angled in leaving that turn, moved up inside into the second turn, split foes twice on that turn and again past midstretch to gain the place. ROYAL REBEL chased inside then outside a rival, went three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and was outfinished for second. AUSSIE FOX stalked inside, bid along the rail a half mile out to gain the lead into the second turn, stalked the winner inside leaving that turn and weakened. WHEN JESUS WALKED broke a bit slowly, pulled early then settled off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and improved position. BOOGIE chased between foes, bid four wide between horses a half mile out, dropped back on the second turn, steadied briefly leaving that turn and weakened. CALIFORNIA KING had speed three deep then dueled outside a rival, battled between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and gave way. HACHIMAN dueled inside then between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back and angled in on the second turn and also gave way. MYSTIC GREY had speed between horses then stalked a bit off the rail, continued between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back and angled in on the second turn and lacked a further response. CELTURIAN four wide early, chased three deep, dropped back into and on the second turn, gave way readily and was eased in the stretch.