MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
"Bridge of Spies"
Bubbling under: "Brooklyn," "The Hateful Eight," "The Danish Girl," "Room"
Analysis: "Spotlight," "The Revenant" and "Spies" seem secure. Quentin Tarantino has a long history of success at the Globes, but reaction to his three-hour western, "The Hateful Eight," was mixed among HFPA voters. So we'll lean toward Todd Haynes' gorgeous romance "Carol" and critics favorite "Jobs," though a nom for the immigrant story "Brooklyn" would not be surprising in the least.
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Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"
Bubbling under: Tom Hanks, "Bridge of Spies"; Michael Caine, "Youth";
Analysis: DiCaprio and Depp have long enjoyed massive support from the HFPA, as has Smith when he's made dramas such as "Ali" and "The Pursuit of Happyness." The well-loved Caine remains a strong threat here too, as his film, "Youth," has the sort of international flavor the foreign press likes to reward.
Cate Blanchett, "Carol"
Brie Larson, "Room"
Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl"
Bubbling under: Emily Blunt, "Sicario"; Charlize Theron, "Mad Max: Fury Road"; Angelina Jolie, "By the Sea"; Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years";
Analysis: The HFPA ignored the studios' wishes and (correctly) put Mara and Vikander in this category instead of supporting. That creates an unfortunate logjam of worthy women with Mulligan ("Suffragette") and L.A. Film Critics lead actress winner Rampling ("45 Years") the most likely to be left out.
FULL COVERAGE: Golden globes
MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY
"The Big Short"
Bubbling under: "Spy," "Tangerine," "The Lady in the Van," "Burnt," "Sisters"
Analysis: The HFPA has never been too partial to rewarding straight-up comedies in this category, preferring character-based dramedies or genre flicks with comic elements. (Hello "Martian"!)) With the kind of year Amy Schumer has been having, "Trainwreck" probably makes it in, but the hit
Matt Damon, "The Martian"
Steve Carell, "The Big Short"
Bill Hader, "Trainwreck"
Bradley Cooper, "Burnt"
Bubbling under: Bill Murray, "Rock the Kasbah"; Al Pacino, "Danny Collins";
Analysis: Maybe "The Martian" landing in comedy isn't such a bad thing since this category would be awfully thin without Damon's presence. And while we know these voters don't like Marvel movies, an exception should be made here for the appealing Rudd, particularly because the entries from HFPA faves Cooper and De Niro don't measure up to either actor's best work.
Lily Tomlin, "Grandma"
Amy Schumer, "Trainwreck"
Meryl Streep, "Ricki and the Flash"
Bubbling under: Melissa McCarthy, "Spy"; Blythe Danner, "I'll See You in My Dreams";
Analysis: Could the HFPA bring back everyone's favorite Globes hosts simply by nominating them? We haven't seen Fey and Poehler's "Sisters" but it can't be any worse than "Our Brand Is Crisis" or "Ricki and the Flash."
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