'Spotlight,' 'The Martian,' 'Carol' and more: Predictions for the 2016 Golden Globe nominations

'Spotlight,' 'The Martian,' 'Carol' and more: Predictions for the 2016 Golden Globe nominations
Golden Globe contenders, from left, Eddie Redmayne, Will Smith, Sandra Bullock and Cate Blanchett. (From left: AP; Melinda Sue Gordon; Warner Bros. / AP; Wilson Webb / AP)

The Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. has pivoted slightly in the last couple of years, with its choices for its annual Golden Globe Awards increasingly mirroring the critical mainstream rather than simply rewarding the biggest stars on the planet. Will that trend continue this year?



(Kerry Hayes)

"The Revenant"

(Twentieth Century Fox)

"Bridge of Spies"

(Jaap Buitendijk / DreamWorks)


(Wilson Webb / AP)

"Steve Jobs"

(Francois Duhamel / Universal Studios)

Bubbling under: "Brooklyn," "The Hateful Eight," "The Danish Girl," "Room"

Analysis: "Spotlight," "The Revenant" and "Spies" seem secure. Quentin Tarantino has a long history of success at the Globes, but reaction to his three-hour western, "The Hateful Eight," was mixed among HFPA voters. So we'll lean toward Todd Haynes' gorgeous romance "Carol" and critics favorite "Jobs," though a nom for the immigrant story "Brooklyn" would not be surprising in the least.

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Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"

(20th Century Fox)

Johnny Depp, "Black Mass"

(Warner Bros.)

Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"

(Agatha A. Nitecka / AP)

Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"

(Universal Pictures)

Will Smith, "Concussion"

(Melinda Sue Gordon)

Bubbling under: Tom Hanks, "Bridge of Spies"; Michael Caine, "Youth"; Ian McKellen, "Mr. Holmes"

Analysis: DiCaprio and Depp have long enjoyed massive support from the HFPA, as has Smith when he's made dramas such as "Ali" and "The Pursuit of Happyness." The well-loved Caine remains a strong threat here too, as his film, "Youth," has the sort of international flavor the foreign press likes to reward.


Cate Blanchett, "Carol"

(Wilson Webb / AP)

Saoirse Ronan, "Brooklyn"

(Kerry Brown / Twentieth Century Fox Film Corpo)

Brie Larson, "Room"

(Ruth Hurl)

Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl"


Rooney Mara, "Carol"

(The Weinstein Company)

Bubbling under: Emily Blunt, "Sicario"; Charlize Theron, "Mad Max: Fury Road"; Angelina Jolie, "By the Sea"; Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"; Carey Mulligan, "Suffragette" 

Analysis: The HFPA ignored the studios' wishes and (correctly) put Mara and Vikander in this category instead of supporting. That creates an unfortunate logjam of worthy women with Mulligan ("Suffragette") and L.A. Film Critics lead actress winner Rampling ("45 Years") the most likely to be left out.

FULL COVERAGE: Golden globes



(Merie Weismiller Wallace / 20th Century Fox)

"The Martian"

(Courtesy Twentieth Century Fox / AP)


(Handout / TNS)

"The Big Short"

(Jaap Buitendijk / AP)


(Glen Wilson / Sony Pictures Classics)

Bubbling under: "Spy," "Tangerine," "The Lady in the Van," "Burnt," "Sisters"

Analysis: The HFPA has never been too partial to rewarding straight-up comedies in this category, preferring character-based dramedies or genre flicks with comic elements. (Hello "Martian"!)) With the kind of year Amy Schumer has been having, "Trainwreck" probably makes it in, but the hit Melissa McCarthy comedy "Spy" may lose out to voters' love for Lily Tomlin's sweet and smartly observed "Grandma."


Matt Damon, "The Martian"

(Aidan Monaghan / AP)

Steve Carell, "The Big Short"

(Jaap Buitendijk / AP)

Bill Hader, "Trainwreck"

(Mary Cybulski / Universal Pictures)

Robert De Niro, "The Intern"

(Francois Duhamel / AP)

Bradley Cooper, "Burnt"

(Alex Bailey / AP)

Bubbling under: Bill Murray, "Rock the Kasbah"; Al Pacino, "Danny Collins"; Paul Rudd, "Ant-Man"

Analysis: Maybe "The Martian" landing in comedy isn't such a bad thing since this category would be awfully thin without Damon's presence. And while we know these voters don't like Marvel movies, an exception should be made here for the appealing Rudd, particularly because the entries from HFPA faves Cooper and De Niro don't measure up to either actor's best work.


Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy"

(Twentieth Century Fox)

Lily Tomlin, "Grandma"

(Sony Pictures Classics)

Amy Schumer, "Trainwreck"

(Mary Cybulski / Universal Pictures)

Sandra Bullock, "Our Brand Is Crisis"

(Warner Bros Pictures / AP)

Meryl Streep, "Ricki and the Flash"

(Bob Vergara / Sony Pictures)

Bubbling under: Melissa McCarthy, "Spy"; Blythe Danner, "I'll See You in My Dreams"; Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, "Sisters"

Analysis: Could the HFPA bring back everyone's favorite Globes hosts simply by nominating them? We haven't seen Fey and Poehler's "Sisters" but it can't be any worse than "Our Brand Is Crisis" or "Ricki and the Flash."

Follow me on Twitter @GlennWhipp