Newsletter: Racing! A new handicapping lesson for you

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as we check in with those Baltimore-bound.

It’s been kind of a newsy week, but let’s just stick to the Preakness-related stories.

The first bit of news came from Sunday, when trainer Bob Baffert brought out Justify, Kentucky Derby winner, for a photo op outside his barn at Churchill Downs. Video was shot, and when it got some national distribution, some said the horse seemed to be walking cautiously on his left hind leg. (Self-disclosure: I was there but was more fixated on talking to those who could talk rather than those who couldn’t. I didn’t really look at the horse. So, it’s good there are some backups in place.)

Baffert said it was because of some scratches the colt received on the muddy track and that it was a minor irritation.

PETA got involved and called for the state vets to look at the colt, which they did. They didn’t find the scratches when he was examined but found a bruised hoof. Again, not a big deal but good to know. His workout on Thursday seemed to go great, and there was no sign of discomfort.

Now, when word spread of even the smallest problem with Justify, it got some trainers interested in running in the Preakness. Among those was Mick Ruis, who said after the Kentucky Derby that Bolt d’Oro would not run in the Preakness. Now, he’s mulling it over and maybe he will run. Chad Brown seemed very negative about running Good Magic in the Preakness, but now he is silent on where the horse will run.

Meanwhile, Mike Smith was involved in an inquiry in Sunday’s eighth race at Santa Anita. (We provided both sides in Thursday’s newsletter.) His mount was not taken down, but he was suspended four days, one more day than when his horse McKinzie was disqualified in the San Felipe Stakes. But, fear not, there are enough secret codicils of Faber College (“Animal House” reference) in racing that there is zero chance he will be forced to miss the Preakness, even though that falls during his suspension dates.

My friend and turf journalist Mike Tierney came up with a great analogy of what happened.

“It’s akin to the inconsistency in the Stanley Cup playoffs,” Tierney said. “A Caps guy breaks an opponent’s jaw on a cheap shot but is not penalized during the game. He then is suspended the next three games. The racing public must be really confused with stuff like Smith’s.”

It also happens in the NFL too.

Our handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from Saturday’s sixth race at Santa Anita.

“An optional claimer at a mile on the turf. Top selection is CONSCRIPTED (#2) who doesn’t string races together, as he’s yet to do so. That’s precisely why it’s important to get a good effort today from him, not knowing if they’ll be able to get another effort from him anytime soon. Many players like to avoid these types, when the reality is, these are the kind of horses whose connections need the big effort off the layoff. Expecting a solid effort off the time away from Shirreffs, with Franco a nice fit from off the pace.

“LUCKY BRYAN (#6) is playable. As I often preach in the report, good health opens the door to good efforts. No, it doesn’t guarantee a good effort, but without the good health in place, the door usually isn’t even open to a strong try. This runner today didn’t even run in 2017, and now, strings back-to-back races together for the first time since September 2016, telling us he’s finding some better health, and as far as the optional tag attached, meaning, he can be claimed for $40,000. They very well would be just fine with a winner’s check and a claim check, knowing down the road the door to running him often isn’t a likely option, so on this particular afternoon, sure, take him for $40,000 if you’d like? We can also point to the fact, off the layoff last time out he came home in 23.4 seconds, which is flying, returning with four works to further solidify the health question. Not tough to find.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 2-6

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“5 Ronald R - Beat very little last time out.

“7 Bold Papa - Another who defeated zero last time out, we’ll defeat here today.

“TOP PICK: CONSCRIPTED (#2 12-1 Franco)

“SECOND CHOICE: LUCKY BRYAN (#6 4-1 Talamo)”

The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.

Santa Anita review

It’s a good couple of days for jockey Corey Nakatani. On Thursday, he regained the mount on Bolt d’Oro, if he runs in the Preakness. Then on Friday, he won the featured $56,000 allowance race at Santa Anita on Dark Vader. The colt won the 1 1/16-mile race for trainer Peter Eurton.

His ¾-length win paid $23.60, $11.20 and $6.00.

Longden finished second and Take The One O One was third.

Santa Anita preview

Pretty decent card at Santa Anita on Saturday with two stakes and four more races worth more than $50,000. It’s a nine-race card that starts at 12:30 p.m. There are four turf races, one of which is down the hill.

The first stakes is the Grade 3 $100,000 Lazaro Barrera Stakes for 3-year-old male sprinters going seven furlongs. The favorite is Kanthaka, who won the San Vicente Stakes at this distance. The Jerry Hollendorfer colt followed up the San Vicente with a third in the San Felipe Stakes, behind Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie and then ran sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes. Both those races were longer. He gets Flavien Prat back in the saddle. He’s the 9-5 favorite.

If you like them up and coming with an unknown upside, there’s Zulfikhar for Baffert. He’s won two of three races, but nothing above an allowance. He’s the 5-2 second favorite. The race is set for about 2:40 p.m.

The second stakes is the $75,000 Angels Flight Stakes. It’s the exact same condition as the Laz Barrera but for fillies. So much for equality among the genders. There is a full field of 10 horses including Moonshine Memories, who hasn’t run since finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Previous to that she won her first three races. She’s at 5-2 with Uppercut at 7-2. She won her first race at Santa Anita and then finished third in a Grade 3 at Keeneland. This is only her third start. Post time is around 4:20 p.m.

Like horses jumping?

If you like European-style steeplechase racing, this is a good day for you. It’s a festival of these kinds of races held at Percy Warner Park in Nashville. The turf course is gigantic, the atmosphere, I’m told, very casual and fun, and you get to see thoroughbreds jump over hedges, called hurdles. It draws a pretty big crowd and you can bring your own food and drink. The Eclipse Award winner for steeplechase can potentially come out of here. There is no betting. Personally, I don’t like these races because I don’t like to see horses fall, even if they seem to get back up unharmed. But, if it’s your cup of tea, go for it. (There are two races that would be eligible for the big races preview, but with no betting, I excluded them.)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:34 Belmont: Grade 3 $200,000 Vagrancy Handicap, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6½ furlongs. Favorite: Holiday Disguise (9-5)

2:02 Woodbine: $100,000 Star Shoot Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Dream It Is (3-5)

2:14 Belmont: $150,000 Run Happy Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Skyler’s Scramjet (7-5)

2:40 Santa Anita: Grade 3 $100,000 Lazaro Barrera Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Kanthaka (9-5)

2:41 Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 Hanshin Cup Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Ghost Hunter (3-1)

2:46 Belmont: Grade 3 $200,000 Beaugay Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 on turf. Favorite: Inflexibility (8-5)

3:03 Gulfstream: $100,000 Big Drama Stakes, Fla.-breds 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Three Rules (7-5)

3:18 Belmont: Grade 3 $350,000 Peter Pan Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Core Beliefs (2-1)

3:50 Belmont: Grade 1 $700,000 Man O’ War Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: High Happy (5-2)

4:18 Santa Anita: $75,000 Angels Flight Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Moonshine Memories (5-2)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 5 What’s Bruin (7-2)

Lukewarm morning-line favorite from the Mark Glatt barn turned in a solid runner-up try on dirt and should take to the hillside turf course. The sophomore filly is out of a dam who relished turf and is related to several multiple winners, so grass should be no problem.

Friday result: Cajun Treasure (2-1) was no match for the winner while holding the distant place spot.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: Kiddy Pride (3-1)

With the presence of a well-regarded first-time starter named Wave Her Down from the barn of leading trainer Paul Jones, Kiddy Pride should stay around her 3-1 morning-line price. I really liked the improvement she showed in her last 12.2 drill when coming away fast and galloping out strong while beating her workmate by one-half length. Her bloodlines are solid as well. She is sired by Kiddy Up, whose J Fire Up was a three-time futurity winner last year.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.