Racing! Looking at the BC Classic

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter and I approved this newsletter.

It’s never too early to start talking about the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is only a couple of weeks away. Accelerate is clearly the best of the lot but it’s not like he’s a slam dunk.

But before we get to the facts, in honor of all the political advertising we’ve been forced to endure the last several months (although it feels like years), here is a totally political and fictional way that Accelerate’s connections could put forth his candidacy for horse of the year:

“Hronis Racing’s Accelerate would be a sure-fire cinch to win Horse of the Year with a Classic win …”

--Breeders’ Cup newsletter

Now, here’s what’s not included in this endorsement:

“ … if not for the Triple Crown exploits of Justify, but even so, he could sway voters should he win the Classic.”

Get it?

When reading the Breeders’ Cup newsletter I read the first half of the sentence and thought, “Wow, Jim Gluckson (Breeders’ Cup media honcho) is really going out on a limb” but then read the rest of the sentence.

Now, just to underscore the point, this was just an exercise in fantasy. Kosta and Pete Hronis are two of the finest people in horse racing and would never result to such chicanery. And, if Accelerate wins (and maybe Catalina Crusier, too) they may get my Eclipse Award vote for owners of the year.

And, sorry for the aside, but I’m just so weary of all the television political ads and mischaracterizations that, well, it seemed worth making some light of it. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Six horses automatically qualified for the Classic by taking a “Win and You’re In” race. Three of them won’t be making it. Nonkono Yume, who won the February Stakes in Tokyo, is staying in Japan. Diversify, who won the Whitney Handicap, is pointing to the Cigar Mile or Clark Handicap as the owners just thought the Classic is too much an uphill proposition to win. And, Good Magic, winner of the Haskell Stakes, has been retired.

That leaves Accelerate, who qualified twice with wins in the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again Stakes. He’s trained by John Sadler. There is Discreet Lover, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and trained by Uriah St. Lewis. And Pavel, winner of the Stephen Foster, and trained by Doug O’Neill.

So, that leaves 11 spots. Same as the Kentucky Derby, there is a point system based on first, second and third place finishes in graded stakes. The points can be overruled by a panel of experts. Now, it’s unlikely they will vary much from the points unless there is a foreign horse they want to run.

So, here are the contenders, skipping over those who won’t be running:

--Bravazo (22 points). He ran in all three Triple Crown races and is trained by Wayne Lukas.

--McKinzie (18). After a long layoff, he won the Pennsylvania Derby for Bob Baffert.

--Axelrod (16). Won the Smarty Jones and Indiana Derby and second in the Penn Derby for Michael McCarthy.

--Lone Sailor (16). Winner of the Oklahoma Derby and second in the Super Derby for Tom Amoss.

--Catholic Boy (12). Won the Travers Stakes but has had a minor illness that required him to miss a few days of training for Jonathan Thomas.

--Mind Your Biscuits (12). Won the Lukas Classic at Churchill for Chad Summers and may be flying under some people’s radar.

--West Coast (12). Ran second to Accelerate after a long layoff in the Awesome Again for Baffert.

--Mendelssohn (11). Third in the Jockey Gold Cup but remembered for a 20+ length win in Dubai for Aidan O’Brien.

--Yoshida (10). Win in the Woodward put him on the map for Bill Mott.

--Gunnevera (10). Ran second in the Woodward for Antonio Sano.

--War Story (10). Was fourth in last year’s Classic but hasn’t done much this year for Jorge Navarro.

Some of the horses at the bottom could get bounced. The announcement of all the fields will be made Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. PDT and will be streamed on www.breederscup.com.

Santa Anita review

The feature was 6 ½ furlongs down the hill and was won by Spin Me a Kiss, who pulled ahead of favored Dominating Woman to win by a comfortable 1 ½ lengths. It was an allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares and worth $53,000.

Spin Me a Kiss paid $12.40, $4.80 and $3.40 for jockey Edwin Maldonado and trainer Phil D’Amato. Dominating Woman was second and Zaffinah was third.

“I just told the owner, that with the Cal-bred bonus, this is like winning a mini-stake,” D’Amato told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “It really is a great incentive. This filly just needed some freshening, and she’s back on her game now. We’ll look for some Cal-bred stakes.”

Sadly, Beau Square was pulled up on the middle of the hill by jockey Tyler Baze. She suffered a fractured sesamoid of her right hind leg and had to be euathanized.

Santa Anita preview

Friday’s eight-race card at Santa Anita, highlighted by its $2 beer promotion, has nothing exceptional to offer as far as racing. Now, half of the races are on the turf, so that’s popular. There is one allowance, two maiden special weights and the rest are claimers. Four of the races have only six horses entered, not the way the track wants to trend.

The allowance/optional claimer, is the sixth, 1 ¼ miles on the turf, which along with the 6 ½ furlongs down the hill, has a short part of the race on a dirt crossover. Post is about 3:40 p.m.

Starting Bloc is the favorite at 3-1 for trainer Alfredo Marquez and jockey Rafael Bejarano. He has won two of six races this year, one a maiden claimer and the other a starter allowance (a claiming race where horses can’t be claimed).

Second favorite is Comma Sister at 7-2. George Papaprodromou is the trainer and Mario Guterrez rides. The gelding is winless in four races this year and one of 12 lifetime. He has been running allowance races this year.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 9, 6, 6, 8, 10 10 (2 also eligible).

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 6 King Caymus (12-1)

Improving gelding from the David Hofmans barn added blinkers and responded with by far his best effort when defeating high-priced maiden claimers at Del Mar last time out. The lightly raced son of Kitten's Joy didn't beat much that day but was visually impressive and acts like he will appreciate the 10-furlong distance.

Thursday's result: Comebacker Indygo Bo was bet dead on the board and ran like it, fading badly through the lane in the second race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“It’s a weekend of trials to a pair of Grade 1 races at Los Alamitos. Saturday will feature four trials to the $925,100 Los Alamitos Super Derby, while all 10 races on Sunday night will consist of trials to the Golden State Million Futurity.

“AQHA champions J Fire Up and KVN Corona will be joined by 2018 derby winners Jesstacartel, A Political Lady, Jess My Kiss, Moonie Blues and Black Fryday as part of an outstanding group of sophomores hoping to qualify for the 65^th running of Los Alamitos Super Derby on Nov. 11. A total of 34 runners will be in action Saturday with the horses with the 10 fastest times advancing to the final.

“This year’s final will be the richest Super Derby since 2012 and the fifth richest running in the event’s history. The Super Derby winner will earn a berth to the Grade 1, $600,000 Champion of Champions on Dec. 15.

“J Fire Up and KVN Corona dominated the futurities at Los Alamitos in 2017 with J Fire Up winning the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity, Grade 1 Golden State Million Futurity and Governor’s Cup Futurity, while KVN Corona won the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity and the Grade 2 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity. J Fire Up will be looking for her third trial derby win of the season, although she’s yet to come back to win the final. She’ll be in the opening trial against (G1) Los Alamitos Winter Derby winner Jess My Kiss and (G2) Golden State Derby winner Jesstacartel. KVN Corona, winner of the (G3) El Primero Del Ano Derby earlier this year, will headline the second trial and will face (G3) La Primera Del Ano Derby winner A Political Lady.

“On Sunday night, Wave Her Down, Wicked Affair and Powerful Favorite, a trio of graded futurity winners at Los Alamitos, are among the 78 juveniles that will compete in the 400-yard trials to the Golden State Million Futurity. The horses with the 10 fastest time will move on to the futurity final on Nov. 4.

“As of now, Wave Her Down is the meet’s top money earning 2-year-old thanks to her victory in the (G1) Ed Burke Million Futurity on June 24. She earned $428,400 in that race, but enters this race after her first loss when finishing fourth in a trial to the (G2) PCQHRA Breeders Futurity on Sept. 16.

“’She broke a tad tardy,’ owner Jeff Pitcher said. ‘Cody had to grab a hold of her because she was a little afraid of the other horses around her. Hopefully for this next race she’ll get a better break. It’s tough to swallow when your horse has a race like that, but you take the good with the bad. … Hopefully she steps back to the plate on Sunday night and has a nice race.’”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 1 Dropping Fire (5-2)

Victorious in her lone Ruidoso Downs start last May, she worked in terrific style on Oct. 2 for her local bow. In her solo 12.1 gate drill for 220 yards, she came away quickly under jockey Jesus Ayala and unleashed smooth strides through a strong final 1/16. Her win last May came in a Ruidoso futurity trial and she is eligible for the Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity trials next month.

Final thought

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Now, the star of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

C. C. ZIPP had speed between horses then angled in and set a pressured pace inside, inched away into the stretch, kicked clear under urging and held. MIDNIGHT LILLY a step slow to begin, chased three deep on the first turn then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and finished willingly. COPPER COWGIRL three deep into the first turn, angled in and pressed the pace outside the winner to the stretch and bested the others. ROAD TEST came off the rail on the first turn and chased outside a rival, went three deep into and out of the second turn and weakened. LETHAL LEGACY between horses early, chased a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn and also weakened. TEE EM EYE saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back in the stretch and had little left for the drive.

MONYDONTSPENITSELF stalked off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the hill to gain the lead into the stretch, inched clear under urging and held on gamely. FOREVER JUANITO stalked between horses then along the rail into the stretch, came out in upper stretch and finished well to just miss. GONNA FLY NOW well placed stalking the pace three deep between foes to the stretch, also finished willingly to best the others. FROM THE DISTANCE a bit slow to begin, had speed inside and inched away, set the pace along the rail, dueled leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened some in the final furlong. THEYCALLHIMTHEKID stalked four wide then five wide leaving the hill and into the stretch and lacked a rally. REIGN ON (GB) between horses early, saved ground stalking the pace, steadied in tight along the rail nearing the dirt crossing and could not offer the necessary response. INDYGO BO stalked outside a rival then four wide between foes leaving the hill and crossing the dirt, was in tight in upper stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

PEACHY stalked three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch and three wide into the second turn, went up four wide leaving that turn and three deep into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up, gained the lead nearing the sixteenth pole and won clear under urging. ESKENFORADRINK bobbled at the break, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside, inched away again on the second turn, fought back inside the winner in the stretch, could not match that one late but was clearly second best. CHAPIS saved ground stalking the pace throughout and held third. SPECTACULAR STORM stalked between horses then bid outside the runner-up, tracked again between foes leaving the second turn and was outfinished for the show. HELOISE stalked a bit off the rail then between horses on the backstretch and second turn, found the rail into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. STELLA SWEEPER broke in some and bobbled a bit, settled just off the rail then inside and did not rally. PRINCESS NICOLE stalked four wide on the first turn then outside on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

DIOSA sped to the early lead, angled in outside the runner-up then inched away on the backstretch, set all the pace a bit off the rail, was shaken up to widen in the stretch and won clear under a crack of the whip and steady handling then a long hold late. NORWEGIAN saved ground stalking the winner, continued inside in the stretch and bested the others. QUEEN CARMELITA bobbled at the start then again in the second step, stalked four wide, split horses on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and picked up the show. DADDY'S MISTRESS chased three deep then between horses, continued off the rail on the turn and outside a rival into the stretch and did not rally. HAD ENOUGH K P dwelt at the break to be away well behind the field, settled inside, came out into the stretch and split rivals late to improved position. FRISKY FOX stalked between horses then outside a rival on the turn, was between foes again into the stretch and weakened. WARRENSROLLINGDICE angled in and chased inside, came a bit off the rail in the drive and also weakened. FILTHY stalked three deep on the backstretch and turn, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

SPIN ME A KISS had speed between foes then dueled outside the runner-up, took a short lead in upper stretch under a vigorous hand ride and inched away late under steady handling. DOMINATING WOMAN dueled inside, fought back in the stretch, could not match the winner late but held second. ZAFFINAH (IRE) a bit slow to begin, saved ground stalking the pace throughout and picked up the show. DIS SMART CAT stalked outside then off t he rail, came three deep into the stretch, drifted in some in upper stretch and lacked a rally. TIME FOR EBBY was in a good position stalking the pace a bit off the rail then between foes, continued just off the fence leaving the hill, angled in entering the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. LADYBUG stalked three deep then four wide midway on the hill and three wide into the stretch and weakened. SWIRLING chased between horses then three deep between foes leaving the hill, angled in between rivals into the stretch and gave way. BEAU SQUARE tugged her way along early, chased a bit off the rail then inside, drifted out while being pulled up past midway on the hill and was vanned off. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

CAYATE sped to the early lead, set all the pace a bit off the rail and proved best under urging. ALL I CAN SAY a bit slow to begin, saved ground chasing the winner throughout and was clearly second best. BLESS HIS HEART stalked between horses then a bit off the rail into the turn and outside the runner-up into the stretch and held third. GIT ON YOUR PULPIT was well placed stalking the pace between horses then outside a rival or off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch, drifted to the inside and was edged for the show. ACCORDING TO BUDDY stalked five wide on the backstretch and four wide on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and did not rally. DYNAMIC DUO broke out and bumped a rival, dropped back off the rail early, went outside a rival on the turn and was not a threat. ANZIYAN CAT bumped at the start, stalked four wide between horses on the backstretch, fell back off the rail on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and gave way. EL SENOR DE LATUNA wide early, dropped back off the rail, angled in on the turn and failed to menace.

WONDERFUL LIE stalked a bit off the rail, came out on the turn and into the stretch, bid alongside the runner-up to take a short lead in midstretch and gamely prevailed under urging. POWDER close up stalking the pace off the rail, bid three deep on the turn, gained the advantage leaving the turn, angled in entering the stretch, fought back along the rail under some urging in midstretch then had the rider lose the whip a sixteenth and continued willingly. PIED N TRUE dropped back off the rail then angled in and saved ground off the pace, went around a rival into the stretch and gained the show. JUDICIAL stalked outside on the backstretch and turn, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. TRIBAL DANCE dueled outside a rival, put a head in front between foes on the turn, battled inside leaving the turn and weakened. GEM OF A MARINA went up inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail midway on the turn, dropped back leaving the turn and into the stretch, gave way and was eased in the final furlong.

KOOKIE GAL pulled between horses then stalked inside, bid three deep on the second turn to gain the lead, inched away into the stretch, drifted to the inside, kicked clear and held gamely under urging. DOC YCO CHEEKS broke a bit slowly and was squeezed, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and again in midstretch and closed gamely to just miss. SEDAMAR stalked three deep then outside a rival, came out into the stretch and held third. STYLIN OCEAN three wide early, chased outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. GOTTA BE LUCKY pulled between horses and was in tight in the run to the first turn, chased outside a rival then between foes on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. THE PET had speed inside then drifted out a bit into the first turn, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled on the backstretch and second turn and weakened in the stretch. HOT MAGISTRATE stalked outside then bid alongside the pacesetter on the backstretch, dueled between horses on the second turn and also weakened in the drive. PERFECT ICE STORM angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside into the stretch and lacked a rally. TINY TAP settled and angled in outside a rival then chased a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was not a threat.