Racing! Something is missing from Sunday’s Santa Anita card

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we congratulate Jeremy Balan on winning a media Eclipse Award.

Before we get to our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie, it’s probably worth a look at the Sunday card at Santa Anita. There appears to be something missing. It’s turf races. Now, when was the last time you can remember that Santa Anita has not had a turf race scheduled for a weekend day? I asked a couple of press-boxers and they couldn’t remember either.

Now, this is where you might expect me to go off on one of my half-baked rants, but I view this as a good thing. The weather forecast is for a lot of rain Saturday night with lingering showers overnight and into Sunday morning. In other words, if there were turf races, come Sunday, there wouldn’t be.

Danny Eidson, the track’s racing director, made the call to make Sunday’s card all on the dirt. Eidson, along with Stronach racing office overseer, P.J. Campo, have been running the racing office since Stronach boss Tim Ritvo fired long-time racing secretary Rick Hammerle late last year.

Now, we’re not saying this call wouldn’t have been made a year ago, but, in fact, it wouldn’t have been. If you look at the condition book for the ninth day, you would see four turf races and one on the runway as a substitute race. In the past, it might have been a wait and see situation. But not now. Clearly, Eidson was trying to move the racing office into a more proactive role.

There will be consequences when the track tries to fill some dirt races in the near future because the inventory has been stretched thin. But what do they say? Sunday comes before Thursday.

The new racing secretary, Steve Lym, doesn’t start until next week but Eidson’s move might be the kind of thinking Ritvo was looking for when he said people need to change and evolve as the business undergoes a transformation.

It goes without saying (but yet we’ll say it) that the advantages of getting in front of the weather is that there won’t be the glut of scratches when the races are moved off the turf. Fewer scratches mean bigger fields. Bigger fields mean a bigger handle, which, of course, means the track makes more money.

Now, before we leave this section, I have to give full credit to Balan of the BloodHorse for pointing this out to me. Jeremy was in a pretty good mood on Friday as he won the Eclipse Award for news/enterprise reporting. It was a story on the San Luis Rey Downs fires and the challenges that the horsemen faced. It’s really good. You can read it here.

Also, congratulations to Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated for winning the feature/commentary Eclipse Award for a story about Chic Anderson’s call of Secretariat winning the Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown. You can read it here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the second race at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“This is a maiden $50,000 claimer at a mile. The most important word when it comes to handicapping maidens, is intentions. Whether we’re looking at a debut runner (and entering this Winter meet we’ve had 23 of the last 24 first timers at Santa Anita and Del Mar combined), or, runners moving out in distance, returning from time away, etc, it’s the intentions of the connections, which, when deciphered correctly, can eliminate well backed runners, as well as bringing less than obvious runners, into a new light. When we look here at the 5-2 second choice QUEEN OF THE TRACK, we see a horse who was unable to relax when sent long for the first time, then, was asked to settle on the turf, still going long, and now, they’re back on the main track, desperately hoping she’ll suddenly relax. If she was offering a price, that type of speculation could be useful, but in the 3-1 range, we’re much more apt to take a ‘been there done that approach,’ making her come beat us. Meanwhile, the 2-1 morning-line choice is TRUE VALIDITY, but where’s the intentions with this one? While it’s true they’ve kept her at the higher MSW levels, they’ve run on the main track sprinting, down the hill on the turf sprinting, shipped her to No. Cal to try the Tapeta surface, and now, back to So. Cal, back on the dirt, but now asked to run long for the first time. Sure, she’s at a good level, but look at the experiments, do they seem to know what she wants, or are they searching? Keep in mind, her price today is gonna be short, and for us, we’ll make her come beat us. In the end, top selection is LILY CON (#1). Intentions, there’s that word again. So, she debuted in the summer going 5 ½ furlongs. Obviously they ran into a little hiccup, away for the past five months, but do they return sprinting, giving her the race? No, they immediately return her going two turns, likely the plan back in the summer following the debut, but simply unable to get her back quickly to try the longer distance, but today, in the comeback, longer, fitting well class wise, with Joel Rosario taking the call. PALM D’ORO (#6) improved last time out when shortening up to 5 ½, but do they return to that shorter assignment, or even ¾? No, they now send two turns, coinciding with her stringing three races together, telling us her health is improving, which opens the door for her best effort to date, removing the blinkers. Again, intentions, understanding the rationale can open the door to contenders, while also allowing us to try and beat overbet runners.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“WCHR Maiden Power Rating: - 2.00 (slightly below average)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-6

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 2,7

“TOP PICK: LILY CON (#1 4-1 Rosario)

“SECOND CHOICE: PALM D’ORO (#6 8-1 E Flores)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

A Little Bit Me showed that she might just be better than the claimer she was in her last race by winning the Friday $59,000 allowance feature, 6 ½ furlongs down the hillside turf course for older fillies and mares. Once she took the lead she pulled clear to win by 2 ½ lengths.

Trainer Richard Baltas claimed her for $40,000 last out.

“She came out of a really good race and she was in great shape when I claimed her,” Baltas told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “The winner of that race (Amandine) is a really good filly and she came back and won a stake here on opening day. She’s been training great and she ran that way.”

A Little Bit Me paid $6.40, $3.00 and $2.20. Favored Tonahutu was second and Travieza was third. Flavien Prat was the winning jockey.

Very sad end to the day as both Tank Team and Unusual Agent suffered life-ending injuries during their trips down the 6 ½ furlong hillside turf course.

Santa Anita preview

It’s a 10-race card at Santa Anita with a first post of noon. There are four turf races and two stakes. I actually do a mini-preview of one of the stakes that you can read here, although I spend more time talking about Bellafina running on Sunday.

The first stakes is the Grade 2 $200,000 San Gabriel for horses 4 and up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Chicago Style is the 3-1 favorite for trainer Tom Proctor and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. He is six of 11 lifetime, all on the turf, but has never hit the board in two starts at Santa Anita. Last out, he won the Hollywood Turf Cup at Del Mar. he did his best running in 2017.

The second favorite, at 7-2, is Next Shares for Baltas and Joel Rosario. He pulled an upset by winning the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, which got him the Breeders’ Cup (Turf) Mile, where he finished a disappointing 13^th. Post time is around 3:05 p.m.

The more interesting race is the Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes, where you get to see promising 3-year-olds going a mile. The race was won last year by McKinzie. The even money favorite is Coliseum for Bob Baffert and Joe Talamo. He has only run once, winning by a strong 6 ¾ lengths. More seasoned is Gunmetal Gray, at 5-2, for Jerry Hollendorfer and Mike Smith. He has won only one of his four races but has been facing tougher competition. He was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and second in the American Pharoah. Both races were won by Game Winner. Post time will be about 4:05 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 8, 8, 12 (2 also eligible), 7, 10, 9, 7, 10 (2 ae).

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:05 Gulfstream (5): $100,000 Ginger Brew Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Pivottina (2-1)

12:59 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 La Verdad Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Satisfy (5-2)

1:10 Gulfstream (9): $100,000 Kitten Joy Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Henley’s Joy (3-5)

1:41 Gulfstream (10): $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Code of Honor (7-5)

3:04 Santa Anita (7): Grade 2 $200,000 San Gabriel Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Chicago Style (3-1)

4:04 Santa Anita (9): Grade 3 $100,000 Sham Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Coliseum (1-1)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 7 Spokane Eagle (4-1)

Sharp gelding won his last pair for different trainers and will go for the hat trick while making his first start off the Peter Miller claim (he has been red-tagged out of his last five starts). Razor sharp, drawn well outside with good tactical speed and given a confident boost in class after beating $20,000 claimers last time, let's stick with the "now" horse at a decent morning line price.

Friday’s result: Nolo Contesto ($5.40) was crushed in the wagering into the teeth of an even-money favorite and outdueled that one in an exciting stretch battle to prevail in the sixth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 6 Kamilche Gold (5-2)

In a race where three of the six entrants need the lead to win, I like the chance of Kamilche Gold, whose tactical speed should keep her close to speedsters Stella’s Princess, Sea Secret and Evening Again. The 9-year-old mare is a win machine, having captured 10 of 42 starts and showed early zip in last runnerup try vs. Cioppino Pasadino, who since won for $8,000 during the daytime Los Al winter thoroughbred meet.

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

WHAT'SONTHEAGENDA had speed inside then inched away, kicked clear down the hill and just held under some left handed urging. CHOSEN VESSEL between horses early, chased outside a rival then just off the rail, came out into the stretch and closed willingly late to just miss. EXULTATION four wide early, angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside in the stretch and just held third. HOLLYWOOD SQUARE stalked inside then outside a rival leaving the hill, came out three deep into the stretch and was edged for the show. BELLERIN angled in and chased inside to the stretch, came out in upper stretch and lacked the needed rally. CONQUEST SUPERSTAR had speed between foes then stalked just off the rail, was between horses into the stretch, drifted in through the final furlong and weakened. TAKI'S CHOICE broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail, angled to the inside on the hill, continued along the rail into the stretch and did not rally. ANZIYAN CAT broke slowly then ducked in some, settled inside then a bit off the rail leaving the hill and into the stretch and failed to menace. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

SMART RACHEL took the early lead a bit off the rail, angled in and set the pace inside, kicked clear on the second turn and proved best under urging. MIZ TIANJIN stalked the pace inside, came out a bit into the stretch and just held second. BLOOMING HANNAH had speed and angled in outside the winner then stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside that one on the backstretch, tracked alongside the runner-up on the second turn, came out some into the stretch and was edged for the place. MAJESTIC DESIGN three wide on the first turn, stalked outside a rival then between foes into and early on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. KENNEDIE SKY chased a bit off the rail then three deep into and on the second turn, came out into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

SEAHAWK WAVE sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail on the turn, regained the advantage nearing midstretch, inched away under urging and held. STONEGATE a bit slow to begin, stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn, came out into the stretch and finished willingly. MOLAF stalked three deep then dropped back off the rail on the turn, split horses in midstretch, angled in and gained the show inside. NORMANDY BEACH between rivals stalking the pace on the backstretch, continued outside foe on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for third between foes late. PALADAR stalked four wide, bid outside the winner on the turn to put a head in front a quarter mile out, dueled outside that rival into the stretch and until past midstretch and weakened late. AGGRESSIVITY chased outside then four wide into and out of the turn and lacked the needed rally. SHANGHAI BILLY a step slow to begin, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and weakened in the drive.

DRIFT AWAY angled in and stalked outside a rival, bid alongside the runner-up on the backstretch and second turn and through a stiff drive and gamely prevailed late under urging. UNTOUCHED ELEGANCE broke out a bit, took the early lead and set the pace inside, dueled on the backstretch and second turn, fought back along the rail through the stretch and continued gamely to the end. FOXTAIL saved ground stalking the pace, came out some in upper stretch and continued willingly to best the others. TRUST FUND KITTY squeezed a bit at the start, stalked the pace inside throughout and lacked the needed rally. TAKE A LEAP angled in and chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. CHALKY (IRE) broke a bit slowly, settled inside then a bit off the rail leaving the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SUGARY a bit washy at the gate, chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and did not rally.

DENMAN'S CALL stalked a bit off the rail, bid between horses on the turn and outside the runner-up into the stretch, took a short lead in midstretch and gamely prevailed under some urging. ALLABOUTMIKE sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the turn, fought back inside through the stretch and continued gamely to the end. CONQUEST COBRA stalked off the rail then between foes leaving the backstretch, bid three deep on the turn, angled in outside a rival into the stretch and held third. JUNIOR GILLIAM bobbled some at the start to drop back, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and was edged for the show. BIG LEAGUE stalked outside then three deep, continued outside on the turn and three wide into the stretch and weakened.

NOLO CONTESTO four wide on the first turn, stalked outside, bid alongside the runner-up leaving the second turn, took a short lead in midstretch, fought back when headed in deep stretch and gamely prevailed under some left handed urging and strong handling. OMAHA BEACH stumbled at the start but quickly recovered, bid three deep leaving the first turn then dueled outside a rival, inched away and angled in on the second turn, fought back along the rail leaving that turn and in the stretch, put a head in front in deep stretch and continued gamely to the wire. GREEN FLEET four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide into and on the second turn and into the stretch and bested the others. HARMON chased off the rail then inside, continued just off the fence leaving the backstretch, came out three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. ROYAL INSIDER bid between horses leaving the first turn then stalked between foes, dropped back a bit off the rail on the second turn and weakened. RAILMAN saved ground chasing the pace, split rivals into the stretch and lacked a further response. AMERICAN CAMP three deep early, chased outside a rival on the backstretch and second turn and did not rally. ASANO had good early speed and angled in, set a pressured pace inside, dropped back on the second turn and gave way. MIDNIGHT ROAMER broke a bit slowly, angled in and saved ground off the pace, continued inside into the stretch and had little left for the drive. CARRIBEAN COLOURS broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the second turn and gave way.

A LITTLE BIT ME chased a bit off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, bid outside a rival in the stretch, took the lead in deep stretch and won clear under some urging. TONAHUTU (IRE) settled off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and gained the place late. TRAVIEZA dueled outside a rival, took a short lead into the stretch, fought back a bit off the rail in the drive, could not match the winner in the final sixteenth and lost second late. GRACE BAY pulled and steadied between horses nearing the right hand curve, chased outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and lacked a rally. WICKED STORM saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit in midstretch, split horses in deep stretch and did not rally. OKINAWA went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the hill and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SUSPICIOUS SPOUSE stalked outside a rival, was between foes into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

CLYDE'S PRIDE dueled outside a rival then three deep leaving the backstretch and into the turn, inched away and angled in leaving the turn, kicked clear, drifted in late and proved best under some urging. MINOSO stalked a bit off the rail, was between horses into the stretch and clearly second best. LEROY saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and gained the show. CYCLOMETRIC chased off the rail then outside leaving the backstretch and on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. OLD INDIAN TRICK had speed a bit off the rail then pressed the pace between foes, stalked leaving the turn, angled to the inside entering the stretch and weakened. RAUL ROSAS pressed the pace outside then stalked three deep leaving the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. TANNERS PRIDE went up inside to duel for the lead, stalked along the rail on the turn and weakened in the drive. PLAIN WRAP broke a bit slowly, dropped back inside, came out into the stretch and did not rally.

TIGER DAD had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inside, inched away just off the fence into the stretch and won clear under urging. BRIX chased outside then alongside a rival, angled to the inside in the stretch and bested the others. UNUSUAL RIDER had good early speed and dueled outside the winner, came out into the stretch and was outfinished for the place. GO LIKE THE WIND broke a bit slowly, settled outside a rival, steadied and was forced out at the spill on the hill, angled in then came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. VEZUCHIY a bit slow to begin, settled inside chasing the pace, steadied at the spill leaving the hill, came out leaving the hill and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. BOUNTY HUNTER stalked a bit off the rail then inside, cut the corner into the stretch and weakened. NICE HAIRCUT chased outside then alongside a rival, steadied and was forced wide at the spill on the hill, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. KING PARKER saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail on the hill, also steadied and was forced out at the spill on the hill, came three deep into the stretch and did not rally. UNUSUAL ANGEL chased just off the rail then inside, got through along the fence leaving the hill, came out into the stretch, took a bad step and was severely injured in the right front in midstretch, was pulled up and vanned off. TANK TEAM chased a bit off the fence then outside a rival, took a bad step leaving the hill, lost the rider and was severely injured in the left front and was vanned off. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the run leaving the hill but made no change when they ruled no runner was the cause of the trouble to TANK TEAM. Rail on hill at 14 feet.