Big Hit to O.C. Economy Forecast if Long Beach Naval Shipyard Closes : Jobs: Opponents of closure say the county can’t afford to lose $22.9 million in annual payroll and contracts that the 3,000-worker base generates here.

The possible closure of the Long Beach Naval Shipyard could hit Orange County hard, idling 550 residents and hurting dozens of businesses that supply the base with goods and services, economic analysts say.

“The fact is, I still have to put two kids through school and I’ve got bills to be paid,” said Costa Mesa resident Louis Rodriguez, 48, a mechanical engineer. “If the base closes, I don’t know what I’m going to do. That’s why I’m going to fight so hard to keep it open.”

Rodriguez will be joining a contingent of about 200 shipyard workers who will head to San Francisco today to testify before the Base Closure Realignment Commission, which is considering the fate of the 52-year-old shipyard.

As they head north for the Friday hearing, Gov. Pete Wilson, U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein and four commissioners today will be touring the facility that employs 3,000 workers.

The base has been spared in two previous rounds, one in 1990 and the other in 1993, but ever since it was put on the Defense Department’s hit list for a third time in February, the future of the shipyard is beginning to look grim as the Navy tries to cut its budget by $1.9 billion in a post-Cold War era.

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The shipyard workers who live in Orange County make up 18% of the naval facility’s work force, according to base spokesman John Ryan. Most of the machinists, technicians, pipe fitters, welders and management personnel live in Garden Grove, Anaheim, Westminster, Buena Park, Santa Ana, Huntington Beach and Cypress.

Their combined annual salaries total $17.5 million, the financial impact of which is not to be underestimated, economic analysts and shipyard supporters say. Businesses that supply the shipyard also stand to suffer from the closure.

“If the base closes, I’m going to hurt big-time. Over 40% of my income comes from that place,” said Tim Gelatka, 48, the owner of South Coast Sanitary Supply Co. in Lake Forest, which he said sold $222,000 in supplies last year. “The base was one of my first accounts when I first opened up 16 years ago, and slowly but surely it started buying supplies.”

Doug Cook, the owner of Cook Brothers Assn. in San Clemente, which supplies the shipyard with pipe fittings, said he stands to lose $100,000 in annual sales.

Cities in which the workers live may also take a dive in sales tax revenues and in other indirect ways that the workers contribute to their communities.

“It worries us,” said Mike Fenderson, an assistant city manager for Garden Grove, where close to 150 shipyard workers live. “We’re concerned first about the people losing their jobs and the effect it might have on the community. They pay their mortgages here, they shop here, they provide us a community.”

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A study conducted by Kenneth Leventhal Co., an accounting firm in Los Angeles, concluded that the base contributes about $757 million in annual spending and provides 10,100 jobs to the Southern California regional economy.

Save Our Shipyard, a group fighting to keep the base open, says the naval shipyard generates about $22.9 million in annual payroll and contracts across the county.

“Orange County could be hit hard,” said Bill Gurzi, president of the advocacy group. “You can’t take away a major employer this close . . . without having an effect. After all, there are hundreds of families whose incomes rely on the base.”

The possible closure couldn’t have come at a worse time for Vonnie East, a Garden Grove resident who works at the shipyard as a pest control inspector. She and her husband, Dwight Ridge, 48, a shipyard machinist, just recently decided to buy their own condominium, she said.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen to us,” said the 47-year-old East, who earns $33,000 a year. “Everything’s up in the air. I might be able to take early retirement, but at my age I’ll have to take a pay cut. And I don’t even know if I’ll qualify for early retirement.”

The future of Frank Armenta, a contract specialist from Buena Park, is just as uncertain.

“I’ll probably find a part-time job, but I don’t know where--that’s for sure,” said Armenta, 49, who is usually on the flip side, subcontracting businesses to do repair work on base, whether it’s a crane on the blink or a machine gone mad.

Armenta’s only consolation in it all is that if the base does close, at least he’ll be “the last one to go” because somebody will have to find the businesses to do the dismantling, he said.

If the eight Base Closure Realignment commissioners recommend the closure this summer, the decision will then be sent to President Clinton, who can either accept it--and send it to Congress, which has 45 legislative days to pass it--or reject it. A final congressional hearing will be held in June.