Prime-Time Population

The adage about those who don’t study history being doomed to repeat it could echo through the hallways occupied by network programmers next fall, based on what’s shaping up to be another case of potential overcrowding in the prime-time marketplace.

Responding to diminished ratings, network executives generally agreed in retrospect that they put on too many new shows last September and that many programs were too similar, hurting their chances for success by confusing viewers. Most pledged not to repeat those mistakes, seeking to differentiate their networks and offer more stability in the future.

Yet the 1996-97 prime-time season that begins in September will find 30 new entertainment shows scheduled by ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox, down only slightly from the 33 introduced a year ago.

The field of new programs rises to 40 with the inclusion of the fledgling UPN and WB networks, which have each expanded to a third night. In addition, 27 programs from this season will find themselves in new time periods, and three others will appear on different networks.

CBS will make at least one change every night of the week, while NBC and ABC each will alter six nights. By contrast, Fox chose to leave Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday undisturbed but also gambled in a major way by moving two of its highest-rated programs, “The X-Files” and “Married . . . With Children,” to new nights.

In that regard, Fox Entertainment President John Matoian characterized the Fox schedule as “aggressive without being completely disruptive.”

CBS, after renewing just one of 11 new shows introduced last September, will come back with 10 more in the fall. CBS Entertainment President Leslie Moonves admitted at a press conference that he would rather not have had to put on so many new series but cited the familiarity of the stars involved as an advantage, with shows headlined by TV veterans such as Bill Cosby, Ted Danson, Rhea Perlman, Peter Strauss, Gerald McRaney and Scott Bakula.

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All told, a dizzying 64 comedies and 37 one-hour dramas are scheduled for September on the six prime-time networks, plus eight newsmagazines, a trio of reality programs and a handful of movie slots.

The movies will face unusually stiff competition with Fox assigning “The X-Files” to the 9 p.m. hour Sunday. Network officials note that in “Married . . . With Children’s” heyday, that show cut into movie ratings but also brought more viewers to network TV in that hour, a phenomenon they hope will occur come September.

Pundits generally agree there’s nothing to rival the heavyweight “Home Improvement” vs. “Frasier” contest of two seasons ago, or the heavily hyped (and ultimately lopsided) “ER” vs. “Chicago Hope” and “ER” vs. “Murder One” showdowns of the last two years. Still, some intriguing races do exist.

NBC thinks it is poised to wrest control of Tuesday from ABC with its “Mad About You”- and “Frasier”-anchored comedy block--a notion that would have been considered ridiculous two years ago when “Frasier” and “Home Improvement” each moved to that night.

The result may hinge largely on how well “Mad About You” performs in its third time period in as many years against “Roseanne”--two shows heading into their fifth and ninth seasons, respectively. ABC is hoping to strengthen its performance that evening with “Spin City,” a Michael J. Fox comedy that will follow “Home Improvement.” NBC counters with “Caroline in the City,” which gets to discover what life is like without living next to “Seinfeld.”

A clash between two other old pros comes Saturday, with TV’s longest-running sitcom, “Married . . . With Children,” entering its 11th season in a new neighborhood against “Coach,” which begins its ninth season.

Mitigating against both succeeding is the fact that Saturday has the week’s lowest viewing levels and CBS already dominates the night with established dramas. NBC, which has struggled on Saturdays, will tap into the popularity of “The X-Files” with three shows in a sci-fi/escapist vein, despite past difficulties that networks have experienced trying to launch a night of all-new programming.

Perhaps no night better demonstrates the programming glut facing viewers than Wednesday, with comedies scheduled from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. on ABC, CBS, NBC and the WB. Fox and UPN counter with dramas, as “Star Trek: Voyager” beams over from Monday.

Wednesday also represents a bit of a surprise in that two relatively unproven sitcoms, NBC’s “NewsRadio” and CBS’ “Almost Perfect,” will occupy the 9 p.m. slot against “Grace Under Fire.” Conventional wisdom in television usually says to put your strongest comedy at 9 o’clock and then build your comedy block around it.

NBC, however, didn’t want to tamper too much with its Thursday success, while CBS chose to try to fortify Monday--showcasing new shows starring Bill Cosby and Ted Danson--to provide a foundation for long-term growth.

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Comedies also will air on four different channels 8-9 p.m. Mondays, including UPN and the WB. Three of those shows will feature predominantly African American casts, with African Americans also well-represented in the night’s new drama, “Dangerous Minds.”

A slightly more surreal battle will take place at 8 p.m. Sundays, with CBS calling upon a higher power in “Touched by an Angel” to take on the Man of Steel (ABC’s “Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman”) and Fox’s “The Simpsons,” while NBC invades the time period with its own aliens on “3rd Rock From the Sun.”

Both ABC and CBS, meanwhile, have seemingly decided it’s pointless to tackle “ER” with another drama, each offering news programs opposite TV’s highest-rated show. ABC brings back the marginally rated “Murder One” and “High Incident” earlier in the evening, while CBS will appeal to an older audience with “Diagnosis Murder” and the new Peter Strauss drama, “Moloney.”

“Nobody came at us,” said NBC Entertainment President Warren Littlefield, referring to the network’s Thursday lineup. “When all is said and done, [the other networks] didn’t really take us on.”

As for new shows, the daunting truth is that even with lowered expectations from the networks, the survival rate remains at best around one in four. Only six of last fall’s 33 network newcomers (NBC’s “The Single Guy” and “Caroline in the City,” ABC’s “Murder One” and “The Drew Carey Show,” CBS’ “Almost Perfect” and Fox’s “Ned and Stacey”) were renewed for September by the network that initially ordered them.

Four more have found life on other networks--”Brotherly Love,” “In the House,” “The Jeff Foxworthy Show” and “JAG,” which CBS picked up from NBC for midseason. Five more shows introduced in January or later--”Nash Bridges,” “3rd Rock,” “Boston Common,” “Second Noah” and “High Incident”--also will return in the fall, with “Muppets Tonight!” renewed for midseason.