Racing! Jon White updates his Kentucky Derby top 10

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we try and figure out the wet weekend headed for Santa Anita.

Jon White is back with the next installment of his Derby Top 10. It’s always a must read, especially on this big weekend. So, let’s not dawdle, let’s get right to it. Take it away, Jon.

“Apollo, who did not race as a 2-year-old, won the Kentucky Derby in 1882. Apollo was an upset at a 1 1/2-mile race, not 1 1/4 miles as it is now.

“After Apollo, 135 straight Kentucky Derby winners had raced as a 2-year-old. And then a grand-looking, chestnut colt by the name of Justify came along in 2018 and became the first horse since Apollo to win the Kentucky Derby without having started as a 2-year-old.

“Now, just a year after Justify broke the so-called Apollo curse, could it possibly happen again? It appears to be a distinct possibility after Hidden Scroll's jaw-dropping 14-length maiden win on a sloppy track in his career debut at Gulfstream Park last Saturday.

“It was early in 2018 that Justify burst on the scene at Santa Anita with a 9 1/2-length maiden victory at Santa Anita for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Hidden Scroll's trainer, Bill Mott, also is a Hall of Famer.

“There was a big disparity in the debut odds for Justiify and Hidden Scroll, though. Justify was bet down to 1-2 favoritism in his first race. When Hidden Scroll won in isolated splendor at first asking last Saturday, he made 8-1 look like the bargain of the year.

“According to Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, Mott had some difficulty in getting a rider for Hidden Scroll’s first race. Mott unsuccessfully tried to get four different riders, but they all had a previous commitment. Mott then finally did get Joel Rosario.

“It was fortunate for Rosario that he was available. Instead of plying his trade at Santa Anita last Saturday, Rosario was at Gulfstream for the main purpose of riding a couple of horses in lucrative events. Rosario rode 3-2 favorite Accelerate in the $9 million Pegasus World Cup and 6-1 Catapult in the $6.7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf. Accelerate finished third. Catapult ran fourth.

“Hidden Scroll debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list this week at No. 5. At No. 7 is Mucho, another 3-year-old colt trained by Mott. Mucho currently is training in Florida in preparation for his 2019 debut. He won a maiden race by 9 1/2 lengths at Saratoga last summer, then did not race again in 2018 after finishing second as the favorite in Saratoga's Hopeful Stakes.

“Game Winner, who is No. 1 on my list, continues to gear up for his first 2019 race, which is scheduled to be Santa Anita's San Felipe Stakes on March 9. Winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year and voted a 2018 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male, Game Winner worked five furlongs Wednesday in 1:03.40 at Santa Anita.

“Here are this week's rankings:

1. Game Winner (1)

2. Improbable (2)

3. Instagrand (3)

4. Maximus Mischief (4)

5. Hidden Scroll (NR)

6. War of Will (5)

7. Mucho (6)

8. Vekoma (7)

9. Mucho Gusto (9)

10. Signalman (10)

NOTE: Last week's rankings in parentheses

“Network Effect drops out of the Top 10 this week. He has not had a recorded workout since Jan. 13, suggesting all may not be well with him.

“No. 4 Maximus Mischief, trained by Butch Reid, is the even-money morning-line favorite in a field of seven entered in Gulfstream's Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/16 miles Saturday. He has not raced since winning Aqueduct's Remsen Stakes on Dec. 1. Mihos, winner of Gulfstream's Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 5, is listed at 5-2 on the Holy Bull morning line.

“No. 9 Mucho Gusto, who hails from the powerful Baffert barn, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite in a field of six entered in Santa Anita's Robert B. Lewis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles Saturday. Gunmental Gray is 9-5, with Nolo Contesto pegged at 5-2 on the morning line. Gunmetal Gray won Santa Anita's Sham Stakes on Jan. 5 for Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Highly regarded Nolo Contesto is coming off a Jan. 4 maiden victory at Santa Anita for Hronis Racing, the Eclipse Award-winning owners of 2018. John Sadler conditions Nolo Contesto.

“Tax, trained by Danny Gargan, is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in Aqueduct's Withers Stakes at 1 1/8 miles Saturday. This will be his first start since he finished third in the Remsen. Moretti, a Dec. 20 maiden winner at Aqueduct, is 3-1 on the Withers morning line. Todd Pletcher trains Moretti.”

Santa Anita review

It was a pretty miserable day at Santa Anita on Thursday because of the weather. Too bad, because it was a very good weekday card. All the turf races were moved to the dirt, so there were a lot of scratches.

No point in spending a lot of time on the features, two allowance optional claimers worth $59,000. The fourth was a five-horse allowance/optional claimer for older horses going six furlongs. Microrithms, for Baffert and jockey Mike Smith, won by ¾ of a length. He paid $6.60, $3.00 and $2.40. Captain Scotty was second and Zulifikhar was third.

The sixth race, a 1 ¼ mile allowance/optional claimer for older horses, was taken off the turf, reducing the field from nine to five. It was won by Acker for Peter Miller and Rafael Bejarano. The winning margin was 3 ½ lengths. Acker paid $5.80, $3.00 and $2.40. Fight On was second and Kershaw was third.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita has another good weekday card with four of the nine races being either an allowance or allowance/optional claimer. First post is 12:30 p.m. It will be the last chance to see turf racing, maybe, for a couple days as all of Saturday’s card is on the dirt.

The four allowance races are all worth $57,000, but we’re going to pick the eighth as the feature because of a little star power. The race is just an allowance, with no claimer caveat, for horses four and up going a mile on the dirt.

The favorite, at 9-5, is the familiar Solomini. He was a rising star in the Baffert barn last year but he actually hasn’t won a race since he broke his maiden in his first start. But he had a heck of a run. He was second in the FrontRunner, second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he was placed third in the Los Alamitos Futurity after crossing the finish line first. As a 3-year-old he was second in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and third in the Arkansas Derby before a 10^th place in the Kentucky Derby. His last race was a ninth in the Malibu Stakes, so this is a big drop for him.

Regular rider Flavien Prat is back aboard after races with Martin Garcia and Joel Rosario.

Kylemore is the second favorite at 5-2 for Richard Baltas and Heriberto Figueroa. He was second in an allowance last out.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 6, 9, 7, 8, 9, 8, 10.

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 3 Beaumarchais (8-1)

In a race where the morning-line favorite seems very vulnerable, let's try a price horse who might be the one to catch. This Saldana-trained gelding is a five-time winner who does his best running on the front end and figures to move forward off his comeback prep here nearly three weeks ago. If he can shake loose early he is a live contender at a square price. Win Bet and exacta box with second choice Kylemore.

Thursday’s result: Captain Scotty dueled with the winner but couldn't match strides in the final 70 yards and settled for second yet again.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Los Alamitos Race Course, which conducts year-round nighttime quarter horse and thoroughbred racing, will have two rare weekend nights off this weekend on Saturday and Sunday in order to conduct its annual track renovation. Live racing is being held tonight at the usual post time of 7 p.m. The racing program will feature a Pick 6 carryover of $14,398. The Pick 6 starts in the third race with an approximate post time of 7:56 p.m.

“Los Alamitos will be open during the daytime on both Feb. 2-3 for thoroughbred simulcasting from Santa Anita, Golden Gate, Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Turfway Park, and more. Los Alamitos will remain open for simulcasting only of Australian racing and Cal Expo harness on Saturday night. As in previous years, Los Alamitos will be closed on Sunday night because of the Super Bowl.

“Winning streaks will be on the line in the featured $18,000 Blink Of An Eye Handicap at 100 yards in the eighth race on Friday. Ed Allred, the sport's all-time leading owner, is one win away from his 1,500th quarter-horse victory and has two entrants ready for the Blink Of An Eye led by reigning track record holder La Sierran. Vinnie Bednar will ride for trainer Scott Willoughby. The Stel Corona filly won an allowance event at this distance in a track record mark of 06.48 seconds on Oct. 20. She came back to run second to Kiss N Air's in a 06.58 winning time on Dec. 1. The two will meet again in Friday's Blink Of An Eye. Allred and Willoughby will also be represented by Seems Even Better, a winner at 100 yards on Nov. 11. Allred has won 62 other quarter-horse races as a co-owner.

“Rite Quick, owned by Alberto Rosilles, will enter the Blink Of An Eye riding a three-race win streak that includes a pair of 330-yard races and a convincing half-length victory at 100 yards. The Cartel Hawk has won his last two outs and both have been nose decisions at 100 yards. He has led every step of the way in both of those gutsy efforts. He'll now take on wide-open and tough field of lightning quick sprinters. Kiss N Air, a winner of five lifetime races, had won three straight outings before lacking racing room when finishing ninth in her first start of 2019 on Jan. 6. Wild West Futurity finalist Jodee B Valiant is another top runner set to race in the Blink Of An Eye.

“Jerry Nicodemus, considered one of quarter-horse racing’s greatest jockeys, died Wednesday at his residence in Ruidoso. He was 73-years-old. Nicodemus won three All American Futurities with Three Oh’s in 1968, Rocket Wrangler in 1970, and Ronas Ryon in 1986. He won four Champion of Champions at Los Alamitos in California; twice with Dash for Cash in 1976 and 1977, Lady Juno in 1980, and Denim N Diamonds in 1981. In 6,317 career races, Nicodemus won 1,252 for a 20% winning percentage with lifetime earnings of $18,888,775. He retired in 1993 and worked for many years as a New Mexico racing steward. Services and memorials are pending.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 3 Ferrari Prize Jive (2-1)

With a $14,398 Pick Six carryover, I think Ferrari Prize Jive is a solid single. He finished strong from the rail post after veering inward leaving the gate when fourth at 100 yards in first local try three weeks ago. He now drops two class levels and should relish the 330-yard distance based on a 350-yard win in Nevada last year. Gelding also catches a fairly weak field for the $8,000 level.

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

POINT GUARD dueled outside a rival, inched away a half mile out, battled off the rail on the second turn, regained the advantage in the stretch and edged clear in the final furlong under urging. THE RULE OF KING'S had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail, stalked leaving the backstretch, came out and re-bid between foes on the second turn, put a head back in front leaving the turn, came three deep into the stretch, battled between foes in midstretch and held second. HOT AMERICAN a step slow to begin, chased outside a rival then off the rail, angled to the inside leaving the second turn, continued inside in the drive and was outfinished for the place. FORTUNE OF WAR (GB) stalked off the rail then outside the runner-up leaving the backstretch, bid three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened late.

PLATINUM EQUITY went up inside to duel for the lead then drifted out into the backstretch, angled in and battled inside, inched away a quarter mile out, came off the rail into the stretch, kicked clear under urging then a hold late. ODYSSEY EXPLORER settled off the pace inside, went around a rival into the stretch then went up the rail in the drive to gain second on the line. ELWOOD J pulled off the rail and steadied into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then off the inside, bid three deep on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted in a bit in the drive and was edged late for the place. SPA SHACKALACKA had speed four wide early then angled in on the first turn and dueled outside the winner, battled between foes midway on the second turn, drifted out a bit into the stretch and weakened. RONTON pulled outside the winner into the first turn, angled in and stalked inside, dropped back along the rail on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

BIG BUZZ settled inside, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, led four wide under a mild hand ride nearing midstretch and drew off under a hold. DIMKAR (FR) saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside on the turn and into the stretch, was no match for the winner in the drive but second best. DUBNATION dueled outside a rival then re-bid three deep on the turn, put a head in front into the stretch, battled between foes in upper stretch and was outfinished for the place. RAGING TIGER had good early speed, angled in and dueled a bit off the rail, inched away briefly into the turn, battled between foes on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. IMPEACHABLEOFFENSE chased off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. DIMKAR wore calks.

MICRORITHMS had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, fought back under left handed urging in the stretch and gamely prevailed. CAPTAIN SCOTTY sped to the early lead outside, angled in and dueled outside the winner, fought back on the turn and through the stretch and continued willingly to the end. ZULFIKHAR went up between horses early then chased off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and bested the others. DISTINCTIVE B a bit fractious in the gate then away a step slowly, chased three deep then outside a rival, continued off the rail on the turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened. GRAYCASTER saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch, drifted in some and also weakened.

PERFECT ICE STORM angled in and set a pressured pace between horses then inched away nearing the turn, angled in on the turn and drew off in the stretch under urging then steady handling and a long hold late. TICK TOCK pressed the pace a bit off the rail then stalked between foes into and on the turn, swung three wide into the stretch and gained the place late. DISCRETE STEVIE B broke out a bit, saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside into and through the stretch and was outfinished late for second. POINT RECEIVED stalked off the rail then three deep into and on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a response in the drive. CHOI settled off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch and did not rally. TIZBUDS PRINCESS prompted the pace three deep then stalked outside a rival or off the rail, was between horses in midstretch and weakened. WEST STOWEY LASS angled in and chased inside then a bit off the rail, came out three deep into the stretch and also weakened. DEPENDE DE TI settled off the pace inside and saved ground to no avail. WEST WAY DREAMS hopped in a bit of a slow start, dropped back off the rail, angled in on the turn and failed to menace.

ACKER had good early speed and dueled inside, regained the advantage into the second turn, came off the rail into the stretch, inched away under urging past midstretch and won clear. FIGHT ON stalked outside a rival then off the rail, bid three deep on the backstretch and most of the second turn, continued outside the winner leaving that turn, was floated out a bit into the stretch, could not match that one in the final furlong but was clearly second best. KERSHAW angled in and saved ground chasing the pace throughout and bested the others. MAGIC MUSKETIER broke in the air and slowly, angled in and lagged back inside, swung out leaving the second turn and into the stretch then angled to the inside in the drive and passed a tiring rival. ENCUMBERED pressed the pace outside the winner then between horses on the backstretch and most of the second turn, dropped back some leaving that turn and weakened. KERSHAW wore calks.

EXTRA HOPE angled in and pressed the pace outside a rival then dueled between horses on the backstretch, took a short lead outside a foe on the second turn, inched away leaving that turn, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and proved best. KINGLY stalked outside a rival then bid three deep on the backstretch, tracked again on the second turn then three deep leaving that turn and into the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and gained the place. BIG SCOTT DADDY between horses early, chased outside a rival or off the rail, went three deep leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and bested the others. MANHATTAN UP saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, continued alongside a rival in the final furlong and lacked the necessary response. GRAY MAGICIAN had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the second turn, had the winner edged away leaving that turn and weakened in the drive. PALLADIUM dropped back a bit off the rail then chased outside a rival on the backstretch and second turn and lacked a response in the stretch. SWAMP SOUFFLE allowed to settle off the pace inside, saved ground to the stretch and had little left for the drive.

LOUD MOUTH had good early speed a bit off the rail, dueled inside, inched away into the turn, kicked clear and drew away under urging. ABUSIVE GARY came off the rail to chase the pace on the backstretch, split horses on the turn and edged a rival or the place. PREACHING TRAINER broke a bit slowly and was crowded, moved up outside on the backstretch, went three deep on the turn and into the stretch and was edged for second. HE BE MOJO RISIN stalked outside then off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. GO LIKE THE WIND broke a bit slowly, settled inside then just off the rail, went between horses on the turn and three deep into the stretch and lacked a further response. DERBY STORM chased outside a rival then three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened. NICE HAIRCUT between horses early, chased just off the rail then inside into and on the turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and also weakened. KING LEBRON angled in and pressed the pace outside a rival, angled in and dropped back on the turn, came out into the stretch and gave way. ABUSIVE GARY wore calks.