Newsletter: Racing! Jon White’s Preakness rankings are in the house

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as we get ready for next week’s Preakness.

Let’s get right to the important stuff.

Jon White’s Preakness rankings

Our own Jon White is back for a return engagement, this time with his Preakness Stakes rankings. It’s a tough assignment, even for Jon, who is the morning-line oddsmaker at Santa Anita, plus one of the sport’s leading historians. It’s difficult because we’re not sure who is running in it. So, Jon, what sayeth you?

“Justify resumed training Thursday morning at Churchill Downs, and reports were he looked like his terrific self in his first day back to the track following an impressive May 5 Kentucky Derby victory on a sloppy track. Justify galloped for about 1½ miles Thursday.

“What Justify did Thursday went a long way toward allaying concerns about a physical issue that became a cause célèbre in the wake of his 2½-length Derby victory. He emerged from the race with what assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes has described as a minor left-hind hoof bruise.

“Justify’s Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, puts it this way: ‘It’s a nonissue.’

“As for Justify’s Kentucky Derby performance, it was nothing short of extraordinary. Much attention was focused on the fact that he became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. But he also deserves tremendous credit for being only the third horse in the 144-year history of the Derby to win when having previously made three or fewer career starts. The only other two to do it were the great filly Regret in 1915 and Big Brown in 2008.

“Justify also became the first horse in more than 100 years to win the Kentucky Derby, having raced previously at just one track. The last horse to do it was the aforementioned Regret, who won all three of her starts at Saratoga in 1914 before beating the boys in the Kentucky Derby in her first start at 3. Justify had raced exclusively at Santa Anita prior to the Run for the Roses. He won all three of his starts at Santa Anita this year before taking his show on the road to Louisville.

“When American Pharoah captured the 2015 Kentucky Derby, he was the 5-2 favorite and paid $7.80 for each $2 win ticket. He would go on to win the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for Baffert to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought.

“Justify, like American Pharoah, was the 5-2 Derby favorite and also paid $7.80 for each $2 win ticket. Will Justify emulate American Pharoah and become a Triple Crown winner? It appears Justify has an excellent chance to do just that. At the Wynn Race Book in Las Vegas, the odds are 7-5 (bet $7 to make $5) that Justify will sweep the Triple Crown.

“Who exactly will be participating in the Preakness is not entirely clear at this point. If Derby runner-up Good Magic starts, I see him as the main threat to Justify. That’s why I have Good Magic at No. 2 in my Preakness rankings. Good Magic ran his heart out all the way down the stretch in the Derby when trying in vain to catch Justify.

“If Bolt d’Oro starts in the Preakness, there is no question that he should be considered a contender. But I have him ranked only No. 5 out of a concern that his last three races might take a toll on him.

“Bolt d’Oro had a gut-wrenching battle with McKinzie in the San Felipe Stakes. Next, Bolt d’Oro was beaten in the Santa Anita Derby after taking not one, but two serious runs at Justify. And then, in the Kentucky Derby, Bolt d’Oro made a run at Justify on the far turn before faltering badly in the lane to lose by 24¼ lengths. I can’t help wondering how much gas currently is left in Bolt d’Oro’s tank after those three races.”

Here are this week’s Preakness rankings:

1. Justify

2. Good Magic

3. Bravazo

4. Quip

5. Bolt d’Oro

6. Sporting Chance

7. Lone Sailor

8. Tenfold

9. Pony Up

10. Diamond King

Santa Anita review

Dreamy Gal won Thursday’s feature, a $56,000 allowance down the 6½-furlong turf course. The race was for Cal-bred fillies and mares, and Dreamy Gal won by 1¾ lengths over Forthenineteen, the longest shot in the race. Moonshine Annie was third.

Dreamy Gal paid $4.80, $3.40 and $2.80.

“She was lovin’ the hill,” jockey Tyler Baze told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “We tried long with her, but I think this is what she wants to do. She put me in a real comfortable position and really kicked on through the stretch.”

Jeff Mullins was the winning trainer.

Santa Anita preview

After Thursday’s tiny field sizes, things appear returning to normal for Friday. There are eight races, starting at 12:30 p.m. The card is loaded with maiden races, five to be exact. There is even a 4½-furlong race for 2-year-olds. It’s a long haul for one of these colts to make it to the Kentucky Derby, but even then, do they have a chance? After all, there hasn’t been a colt that has raced as a 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby since Always Dreaming in 2017. It’s the Curse of Dreaming.

Three of the races are on the turf, three of the races are for claimers, two of those for maidens. The feature is likely the seventh, and allowance/optional claimer going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. It’s restricted to 3-year-olds and carries a purse of $56,000.

The field size, in order, is 7, 8, 8, 7, 9, 9, 7, 9 (1 also eligible).

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 6 Cajun Treasure (5-2)

Pete Eurton-trained colt turned in an even debut effort when finishing fourth to similar going a mile on turf. With that race under his belt, look for improvement as he goes an additional furlong today as the second choice on the morning line.

Thursday’s result: Etching (4-1) opened up a big lead and looked home free in mid-stretch but was run down on the wire.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“The Grade 3, $50,000 Miss Princess Handicap on Sunday night and the $30,000 La Pacifica Handicap on Saturday night headline a solid weekend of racing at Los Alamitos. The weekend action starts with an eight-race program on Friday in which the average field size is 7.6. The card will also feature a Pick 6 carryover of $9,206. The Pick 6 begins in the third race. The card will include runners that are preparing for the trials to the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity to be held on June 10. Promising 2-year-olds include Kobe Moon and Bo Jaxon, a pair of runners that have shined during morning works.

“A Political Lady, the runaway winner in the Grade 3 La Primera Del Ano Derby on March 30, will go after her fifth win in a row when leading a field of eight fillies in the $30,000 La Pacifica Handicap at 350 yards on Saturday. Nine races are scheduled with a 6 p.m. post.

“Trained by Chris O’Dell, the filly by Apollitical Jess was sensational in the La Primera, leaving the gate in good form and then dominating the second half of the race to an impressive 1¼-length win in a 400-yard time of 19.71 seconds. Her previous three wins had come in wire-to-wire fashion, including a daylight victory in her La Primera trial on March 10. Hard Headed Chick, the runner-up in the La Primera at 13-1, is among the fillies looking to end A Political Lady’s win streak. Yashira Vista, a major stakes winner in Brazil, will make her United States debut in the La Pacifica. The daughter of One Famous Eagle won the GP Consagracao da Triplice Coroa at 400 yards as a 2-year-old last October while racing at the Jockey Club Sorocaba in Brazil. She won three of four starts in Brazil.

“The big race of the weekend is Sunday’s Miss Princess Handicap for mares at 350 yards. The field will include Designs by Dynasty, the owner of the meet’s fastest clocking at 350 yards, two-time stakes winner Strawfinders Jessee, and Imaqtpie, the winner of the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby last year. Designs by Dynasty posted a season’s best time of 17.40 seconds when beating Strawfinders Jessee in the Terrific Energy Handicap on March 3. Strawfinders Jessee avenged that loss when beating her in the Mini Rock Handicap on April 7. Round three is set for Sunday’s 10th race.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 8 Bo Jaxon (5-2)

Trainer Monty Arrosa has enjoyed great success with debuting 2-year-olds this meet. He has a talented gelding in Bo Jaxon who broke sharp in both drills when galloping out with big strides at 220 yards. He should enjoy the extra 80 yards of his 300-yard debut and is comfortably drawn on the outside.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.