Racing! Matt Dinerman is back with Golden Gate previews

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we see what happened in the Breeders’ Cup Classic future pool.

The Breeders’ Cup this past weekend did its first future betting pool on this year’s Classic. Don’t worry there will be another from Oct. 5-7. Actually, this weekend (Aug. 31, 9 a.m. PDT to Sept. 2, 3:30 p.m. PDT) you can bet the Juvenile and Juvenile Sire.

The results of the first pool were not unexpected as Accelerate was instilled as the favorite at 3-1. Now trying to predict how a horse will perform is only slightly more difficult than guessing how the betting public will view a horse.

So, just for fun, I thought we would compare how morning-line maker for this pool, Mike Battaglia, thought things would go and how the bettors saw things. And, what you’ll see, is that Battaglia did a pretty good job. Some of the results, such as Catholic Boy, were skewed by his monster win in the Travers. The ML was done before that race. The race also might have colored the opinion of others.

The real odds are first, the ML in (parenthesis).

Pretty much nailed it

1. Accelerate 3-1 (4-1)

2. Blended Citizen 99-1 (50-1)

(Note: Intellectually, there really is no difference between 50-1 and 99-1---unless you are betting it---because you rarely, if ever see a ML at 99-1.)

3. Bravazo 30-1 (30-1)

4. Catalina Cruiser 19-1 (15-1)

8. Draft Pick 99-1 (50-1)

9. Good Magic 13-1 (12-1)

15. Mind Your Biscuits 40-1 (30-1)

17. Pavel 24-1 (30-1)

19. Tenfold 55-1 (50-1)

Too much love from ML

6. Collected 26-1 (12-1)

7. Diversify 10-1 (5-1)

10. Gronkowski 22-1 (12-1)

(Note: Travers may have skewed that.)

11. Gunnevera 29-1 (15-1)

18. Saxon Warrior 99-1 (30-1)

20. Thunder Snow 23-1 (12-1)

21. Toast of New York 99-1 (30-1)

22. Vino Rosso 59-1 (30-1)

23. West Coast 12-1 (9-2)

(Note: Hasn’t run since Dubai. Once he starts, his odds will drop if he’s in old form.)

Not enough love from ML

12. Hofburg 18-1 (30-1)

13. McKinzie 19-1 (30-1)

14. Mendelssohn 11-1 (30-1)

(Note: See Gronkowski.)

24. Mutuel Field (All Others) 11-1 (50-1)

(Note: I would like to think two months out if you can’t find one of 23 horses listed that you like than you shouldn’t be betting in the future pool.)

Travers changed everything

5. Catholic Boy 7-1 (50-1)

Not going to happen

16. Monomoy Girl (f) 79-1 (30-1)

(Note: Probably worst bet on the board as she’s not going to run in Classic.)

All in all, a really good job by Battaglia, although our own Jon White and Russell Hudak would do just as well, if not better. I know, I’m a homer for West Coast people.

Del Mar review

Prohibitive favorite Creative Instinct won Wednesday’s feature at Del Mar, the $100,000 Generous Portion Stakes fix furlongs for 2-year-old Cal-bred fillies going six furlongs. Creative Instinct broke sharply ran stride-for-stride with Mucho Unusual down the backstretch and into the far turn before pulling away in the stretch to win by 2 ¾ lengths.

The Peter Miller trained filly paid $2.80, $2.20 and $2.10. Tyler Baze was aboard for the trip. Mucho Unusual was second and Swing Thoughts was third. It was Creative Instinct’s second win in two starts.

“The first-time starter [Mucho Unusual] ran a huge race and gave us a real battle,” Miller said. “But I think Creative Cause’s experience and fitness paid off the last eighth of a mile. We’ll keep her against Cal-bred company for as long as we can, but she’s a quality filly.”

Del Mar preview

Thursday’s eight-race card is overflowing with horses as everyone is looking to get one more race in before packing up and heading north. There are four turf races, five races that are a mile and two allowance/optional claimers.

We’re going to call the seventh race the feature. It’s five furlongs on the turf for horses 3 and up and worth a purse of $65,000. Eric the Trojan is the favorite at 5-2. He has one win in six races this year and that came in a $50,000 claiming race at Santa Anita. That’s when Eric switched barns from Ron Ellis to Jack Carava. Flavien Prat gets the ride.

The second favorite, at 7-2, is Tina’s Exchange for Phil D’Amato and Tyler Baze. He is one for five this year and won an allowance at Santa Anita on June 24. Hanging on as the lone also eligible is newsletter favorite (only because it allows us to riff with LITB lines) is Eddie Haskell. Don’t want any horse to scratch, but would love to see him run.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9 (3 also eligible), 8, 11 (3 AE), 10, 11, 10, 9 (1 AE), 10 (3 AE).

Golden Gate preview

He’s back and we’ve got him. We resume our weekly look at the best racing going on at Golden Gate Fields. As with the last meeting, we’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. So, take it away, Matt.

“We had a successful opening week at Golden Gate Fields for our summer meet, which started last Thursday and runs through Sunday, Sept. 30. Here are some things to remember:

“--We have a guaranteed pool of $50,000 every Sunday in our late pick 5 pool. The late pick 5 is a 50-cent minimum bet, which runs as the last five races on our race cards each day.

“--The 50-cent early pick 5 is a player friendly, low 14% takeout wager.

“--Our 20-cent Golden Pick 6 wager is a jackpot wager. Heading into Thursday’s card, the pool sits at $10,245.

“We have five racing days this week: Thursday-Monday. Our only Monday card of the meet, the Labor Day program features the $50,000 Rolling Green Stakes for 3-year-olds and upward going a 1 1/16 miles on the turf. The race attracted 18 nominees, including Grade 3 winner Editore, recent Santa Rosa turf stake victor Ritzy A.P., stakes performers Alert Bay, Camino Del Paraiso and Grecian Fire, as well as California Chrome’s full brother Faversham.

“A nice allowance race on Friday caught my eye: Race 6, a sprint on the tapeta for fillies and mares going 6 furlongs. Entered are stakes winners Deb’s Wildcard and Iza Firecracker as well as multiple allowance winner Impecunious, who just ran fifth in a stakes at Del Mar, and hard knocking mare Spring Heat.”

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 4 Ketos (7-2)

Gelded since his last and adding blinkers, Ketos drops out of an open claimer to go in this restricted (non-winners of three lifetime) race. Claimed and moved to the Dan Blacker stable, this speedster cuts back to 5 1/2 furlongs. Lots to like in this spot.

Wednesday’s result: Roaring Fork (9-2) worked out a good trip despite the outside post but could only go one-paced in the land and settled for fourth.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Final thought

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

If you have any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Wednesday’s results and Thursday’s entries.

VIBRANCE three deep into the first turn, stalked off the rail then outside a rival, bid three deep on the second turn, took the lead outside a foe leaving that turn, kicked clear under urging and proved best. ASK THE CUSTOMER broke a bit slowly then steadied in the opening strides, settled inside then a bit off the rail, continued along the fence on the second turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and edged rivals late three deep for the place. KEEPER OFTHE STARS four wide into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, went three wide leaving the second turn and into the stretch, drifted in a bit and lost second late. GIZA GODDESS bumped just after the start, chased off the inside, split horses leaving the second turn, drifted in some in the stretch and was outfinished for the show. MERCY MERCY had good early speed and dueled inside, dropped back leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch and weakened. LESLEY'S SONG bumped just after the break, dueled outside a rival then between foes on the second turn, battled inside leaving that turn and weakened in the drive.

AVANTI BELLO stalked the pace off the rail, bid three deep on the backstretch and second turn, took the lead outside a rival leaving that turn, kicked clear in the stretch and held under urging. JUST KIDDING three deep early, stalked just off the rail then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and gained the place. MY FARMER had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch and bested the others. GENTRIFIED off a bit slowly, steadied in tight nearing the first turn, settled inside, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ABOVE BOARD angled in and dueled outside a rival then between foes, fell back leaving the second turn, drifted to the inside in the stretch and weakened. BAY AREA angled in some nearing the first turn, chased between horses then outside a rival or off the rail, came out in the stretch and weakened. BANZE NO OESTE (BRZ) four wide into the first turn, chased three deep, dropped back and angled in some on the second turn and had little left for the stretch.

MIDNIGHT MIRACLE had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inside, inched away off the inside into the stretch and won clear under urging while drifting in some. DISCO TALE chased outside a rival, split horses on the turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and went up the rail for the place. MISS BENNET chased outside then three deep on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch and gained the show. PLAN B stalked outside then bid three deep on the turn and outside the winner leaving the turn, was not a match for that one in the stretch and was outfinished for third. CURRYFORTHREE BANG had good early speed three deep, dueled outside the winner then between foes on the turn, dropped back in a bit tight leaving that turn and weakened. HOLA MAZUMA in a bit tight early, chased outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TIZ WILLOW saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch, angled back to the inside in the drive and did not rally. HAPPIER TOGETHER broke slowly and inward to bump a rival, settled off the pace inside, came out into the stretch and was not a threat. ONE PERKY MARGE also broke slowly, was unhurried off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and failed to menace. GEE CEE CEE bumped at the start, went up inside to stalk the pace, saved ground on the turn and into the stretch and weakened.

SO LONG SAILOR bobbled slightly at the start, angled in and stalked off the rail then bid outside a rival to duel for the lead, took the advantage leaving the second turn, drifted in despite left handed urging in midstretch and won clear. HAYLORD had speed off the rail then angled in, dueled inside on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch, steadied off the heels of the winner and came out in midstretch and held second. TOPGALLANT three deep early, angled in and settled inside, came out leaving the second turn, split horses three deep into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. ROARING FORK four wide into and on the first turn, stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and was edged for third. HARD ARCH saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside in the stretch and did not rally. ROLLS ROYCE DEAL chased three deep between foes, came four wide into the stretch and also lacked a rally. ZIPPY GROOM settled off the rail then outside a rival, went up four wide on the backstretch and into the second turn and six wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. WISE CURLIN three deep early, stalked off the rail then just off the fence, was between foes into the stretch and weakened. SCHOENHARDT chased between horses, dropped back leaving the second turn and also weakened. GRAY ADMIRAL three wide on the first turn, chased off the inside, came out five wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. A claim of foul by the rider of the runner-up against the winner for alleged interference in midstretch was not allowed by the stewards, who ruled the trouble to the former did not alter the original order of finish.

ZIP'S SECRET sped to the early lead, set the pace a bit off the rail, opened up on the turn, drew away under urging in the stretch and held. LA DOLFINA chased off the rail, angled to the inside leaving the turn and was clearly second best. NO THANKS ERIK chased outside rivals then off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and picked up the show. ROLINGA had speed four wide then stalked three deep to the stretch and was outfinished for third. PORTAL CREEK saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and weakened. MADAME JEANETTE chased a bit off the rail, came out three wide into the stretch and did not rally. HERE'S THE THING broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail on the backstretch and turn, came a bit wide into the stretch and was not a threat. POINT RECEIVED stalked three deep early then outside a rival, continued a bit off the rail into the stretch and weakened. KATHIA between horses early, settled off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn and failed to menace. LUCKY FLASH bobbled at the start, stalked between horses, dropped back into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

TOUGH IT OUT stalked a bit off the rail then inside, bid along the fence on the backstretch, took the lead on the final turn, inched away into the stretch, lugged in a bit in midstretch and held under urging. OSCAR DOMINGUEZ (IRE) saved ground stalking the pace, came out on the last turn and four wide into the stretch and closed willingly. TARTINI five wide into the first turn, angled in and dueled outside a rival then stalked a bit off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and finished well. KALEI dueled inside then inched away the stretch the first time, set the pace inside then a bit off the rail, dueled outside the winner into and on the final turn, had that one slip away in the stretch then was outfinished for a minor award. STARTING BLOC dropped back and settled inside, came outside a rival into the stretch, angled out in the drive and found his best stride late. MASTER SINGER saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. HOT AMERICAN chased outside a rival, came out on the final turn and five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. RED KING pulled four wide and steadied on the first turn, chased outside a rival or between foes, angled to the inside leaving the last turn and could not offer the necessary response. AMAZON CRY angled in and pulled hard and steadied in the stretch the first time, stalked inside, came out three deep into the stretch and weakened. BOLD PAPA pulled between horses then stalked outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and also weakened, then did not return to be unsaddled and was vanned off. AZTEC WARRIOR also pulled and chased outside a rival then angled in for the stretch the first time, came out for the middle turn and chased three deep, dropped back into the final turn and gave way then was eased in the stretch.

CREATIVE INSTINCT had speed three deep then dueled outside the runner-up, inched away in the stretch and won clear under some left handed urging and steady handling late. MUCHO UNUSUAL went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and was clearly second best. SWING THOUGHTS had speed between the top pair then stalked off the rail, continued three deep on the turn then off the inside leaving the turn and bested the others. TIME FOR SUZZIE bobbled at the start, settled a bit off the rail, swung out three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. DICHOTOMY stalked outside a rival then between foes into the turn, continued alongside a rival leaving the turn and weakened. BE LIFTED UP saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn and through the stretch and had little left for the drive.

KING CAYMUS angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, rallied under left handed urging to the front in deep stretch and won clear. INDOCTRINATION (IRE) had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back in the stretch, inched away a sixteenth out but could not hold off the winner. BIG SKY LOGAN settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail, advanced four wide on the backstretch, bid three deep on the second turn and in the stretch and just held third. CULPABLE saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch then angled back to the inside approaching midstretch and was edged for the show. DATA CENTRAL dueled outside a rival then between horses on the second turn and in the stretch and was outfinished for a minor share. TEQUILA BLANCO chased between horses then outside a rival on the second turn and lacked the needed rally. COSA NOSTRA (IRE) five wide leaving the chute, stalked three deep then a bit off the rail into the second turn, angled to the inside on that turn and could not offer the necessary response in the lane. DIGNITAIRE stalked between horses then outside a rival on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. SUPER CLASSIC four wide leaving the chute and on the first turn, stalked three deep on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and also weakened. KEY TO THE NILE broke a bit slowly, settled a bit off the rail then inside on the first turn, came a bit off the fence on the backstretch, angled out into the stretch and was not a threat.