Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 1 picks

The Times’ NFL columnist, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). His record picking winners last season was 156-100 (.609). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread last season was 132-120-4 (.524). Records are from last season.

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Buffalo (8-8) at Baltimore (5-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 23, Bills 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

There’s a lot of hype surrounding Buffalo this season, but we’re not yet ready to believe it. Baltimore is coming off a bad and battered season, but the Ravens were in most of their games.

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San Diego (4-12) at Kansas City (11-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 24, Chargers 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Chiefs by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Chiefs look a little more explosive than they have been the last couple of years. The injuries are already starting to mount for San Diego. Take Kansas City at home.

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Cincinnati (12-4) at N.Y. Jets (10-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bengals 30, Jets 27

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Bengals by 2 1/2. O/U: 42.

These teams match up well, and this will be a good measuring stick for the Jets. Even with A.J. Green’s late-summer knee scare, the Bengals have the firepower to get the job done.

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Cleveland (3-13) at Philadelphia (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 27, Browns 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 41.

Carson Wentz may have fewer preseason snaps than any rookie quarterback to start Week 1, but at least he’s facing the suspect Cleveland defense. The relaunching of Robert Griffin III begins.

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Tampa Bay (6-10) at Atlanta (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 27, Buccaneers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Falcons by 2 1/2. O/U: 48.

Tampa Bay figures to be better this season. Atlanta has a chance to build off what it started last year before its epic meltdown. Watch for a number of turnovers in this one.

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Chicago (6-10) at Houston (9-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 30, Bears 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Texans by 6. O/U: 4 31/2.

The biggest question mark for the Texans is their offensive line. Brock Osweiler isn’t incredibly mobile, but the Texans are loaded with talented targets. Could be a long season for the Bears.

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Green Bay (10-6) at Jacksonville (5-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 28, Jaguars 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Packers by 5. O/U: 47 1/2.

With Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay is always going to be in the mix at the top of the standings. We’re not convinced Jacksonville is ready to take the next step, even with an upgraded defense.

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Oakland (7-9) at New Orleans (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Raiders 27, Saints 17

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Saints by 1 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

This is the season the Raiders take a big step forward. They are young and talented in so many spots. After lots of dominant seasons, the Saints aren’t the same in their homedome.

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Minnesota (11-5) at Tennessee (3-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 21, Titans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Losing Teddy Bridgewater is devastating for the Vikings, who have to hope Sam Bradford is a speed reader with the playbook. Scrap the bootlegs and go back to Adrian Peterson handoffs.

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Miami (6-10) at Seattle (10-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Seahawks 23, Dolphins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Seahawks by 10 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Pete Carroll says he loves this team, but the Seahawks were up and down this summer. Offensive line remains a concern. Still, it’s a tall order for the Dolphins to cross the country and win here.

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N.Y. Giants (6-10) at Dallas (4-12)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Giants 27, Cowboys 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Pick’em. O/U: 46 1/2.

Dak Prescott looked good this summer, but the Giants are going to throw more exotic looks at him. Eli Manning usually plays well in Dallas (remember him signing the locker room wall?).

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Detroit (7-9) at Indianapolis (8-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Lions 27, Colts 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 50 1/2.

Colts are seriously banged up on defense, with more than half their starters nursing injuries. Matthew Stafford was on fire for the Lions in the second half of last season. Can he keep it rolling?

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New England (12-4) at Arizona (13-3)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Cardinals 30, Patriots 23

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Cardinals by 6. O/U: 46.

It’s dangerous to give Bill Belichick this much time to prepare for a game. Still, the Cardinals are rock solid, and watch for a big game from Chandler Jones against Jimmy Garoppolo.

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Pittsburgh (10-6) at Washington (9-7)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Steelers 27, Redskins 23

TV: ESPN.

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 49 1/2.

With no Martavis Bryant and no Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers have one hand tied behind their back. But if you’re deciding between Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins, go with Roethlisberger.

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L.A. Rams (7-9) at San Francisco (5-11)

Monday, 7:15 p.m.

Rams 21, 49ers 17

TV: ESPN, Channel 7.

Line: Rams by 2 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The pressure is on the Rams to get off on the right foot, and they should respond. They have the defense to give Blaine Gabbert problems, although their offense is Todd Gurley and little else.