Down to last cut to the Chase

Dale Earnhardt Jr. still faces long odds of making the playoff for NASCAR’s premier title, but at least he’ll be making his final attempt in friendly surroundings in Richmond, Va.

Earnhardt’s last Nextel Cup victory came 16 months ago at the 0.75-mile Richmond International Raceway -- site of Saturday night’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400 -- and he has three victories there overall.

He’ll need another strong showing -- and hope Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick run into big trouble -- to have a shot at making the Chase for the Nextel Cup, the 10-race playoff for the championship that starts after the Richmond event.

The top 12 drivers in points after Richmond qualify for the playoff and, after Sunday’s race at California Speedway, Earnhardt remained 13th.

Stock-car racing’s most popular driver ran a strong race in Fontana and finished fifth despite being extremely uncomfortable from the triple-digit heat. Reigning Cup champion Jimmie Johnson won the race for Hendrick Motorsports.

But Earnhardt remains 128 points behind Harvick for the 12th and final berth in the Chase, and 141 points behind Busch, who is 11th in points.

So even if Earnhardt wins the Richmond race and gets bonus points for leading the most laps, he would still need Harvick to finish 33rd or worse to supplant him in the playoff.

That won’t be easy. Harvick, the Bakersfield native who drives a Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing, is the defending winner of Saturday night’s race at Richmond.

And Busch, driver of the No. 2 Dodge for Penske Racing South, has been in top form lately, with recent wins at Pocono and Michigan.

Busch also led 21 laps in Fontana -- he started on the pole -- and finished ninth to keep the pressure on Harvick and Earnhardt.

The battle among those three for the final two spots in the Chase is providing most of the drama as the series heads to Richmond.

Eight drivers already have locked in Chase berths: Points leader Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Johnson, Jeff Burton and Kyle Busch.

And the next two in points, Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr., need only to start the Richmond race to clinch a spot.

That’s vastly different from a year ago, when only two drivers were locked in before Richmond.

Earnhardt, 32, acknowledged that he faces an uphill climb to make the Chase but seemed happy simply to leave the heat of California under any circumstances.

“I’m not worried about [the points] at all right now,” he said after Sunday’s race. “I just want to cool down somehow and go home.”

He led 15 laps at California Speedway -- a personal high at the two-mile oval -- and said “we were good all night. But the car was never quite perfect.”

“But when the track temperature is 150 degrees like it was at the start of the race, it makes it the most miserable feeling inside the car,” he said. “I mean, it was so hot even the smallest thing would really upset me.”

Conversely, 22-year-old Kyle Busch said he was little troubled by the heat and “was actually comfortable in the car, to tell you the truth.”

It showed.

Busch led the most laps (97 of the 250) in his Hendrick Chevy and finished third.

Earnhardt is replacing Kyle Busch at Hendrick after this season, and Busch is moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, where Stewart and Hamlin will be his new teammates.

The Chase drivers have extra incentive to win at Richmond.

They’ll all start the Chase with their points reset at 5,000, but those who won races during the regular season get 10 bonus points for each victory.

Johnson, whose Fontana victory gave him a series-high five wins this year, would currently be the top-seeded driver, with 5,050 points.

His teammate Gordon has four wins and, with a victory in Richmond, could start the Chase even with Johnson. And Gordon has two prior victories at the Virginia track.

But no matter what happens at Richmond, Johnson said, “there are a lot of other [competitive] cars out there, and it’s going to be a long 10 races” during the Chase.

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james.peltz@latimes.com