Hoping for Unforgettable Grammys : Pop Music: Record retailers expect Natalie Cole and R.E.M. to be the leaders at tonight’s awards ceremony--and later at the cash registers.

Music-industry pundits expect pop singer Natalie Cole and the Georgia-based rock band R.E.M. to be the big winners at tonight’s 34th annual Grammy Awards, scheduled to be broadcast live from New York City’s Radio City Music Hall on CBS-TV. The show, which starts at 8 p.m. Eastern time, will be tape-delayed for the West Coast.

And the nation’s record retailers are expecting Cole and R.E.M. to be the big winners at their cash registers in the annual post-Grammy sales rush in the weeks ahead.

“I believe Natalie Cole’s performance on the show should really impress the adult demographic and spark a significant rise in sales,” said Bruce Jesse, vice president of advertising and sales at the 302-outlet, Torrance-based Wherehouse, echoing a view expressed by officials surveyed Monday at several of the nation’s largest chains.

“While we expect to see a spike in sales for Natalie and all other nominees across the board, I think this could be the night that really opens it up for R.E.M.,” added Mario DeFilippo, senior vice president of purchasing at Handleman Co., a Troy, Mich.-based firm that provides albums to 5,000 discount stores, including K mart. “Up until now, that band has been a really well-kept secret.”

Bonnie Raitt, a quadruple nominee this year, startled the music industry in 1990 when her “Nick of Time” album collected four Grammys and revitalized the veteran singer’s career. The album, which had chalked up only 500,000 units in sales during the 11 months preceding the ceremony, leaped from No. 40 to No. 1 and sold a quick million copies in the three months following the broadcast.

While neither Cole nor R.E.M.--whose current albums have each already sold more than three million copies--is expected to rival Raitt’s impressive post-Grammy breakthrough, retailers believe that the two acts stand a good chance at expanding their market by tapping into the estimated 30 million viewers expected to tune in to tonight’s ceremonies.

“We’re sure that all the mainstream nominees will sell well after the show,” DeFilippo said. “They always do. But Bonnie Raitt’s success two years ago taught retailers to keep an open mind regarding artists who come from way out in left field.

“She proved that anything can happen.”

Cole surprised retailers last summer when her “Unforgettable” album, a nostalgic collection of standards made famous by her father, Nat King Cole, captured the No. 1 spot on the nation’s pop charts for five weeks. She “duets” with her father on the title song. Georgia rock quartet R.E.M.’s introspective “Out of Time” album has hovered in the Top 50 since its release last February.

But Grammy winners aren’t the only artists expected to cash in on the telecast. Mike Fine, chief executive officer of SoundScan, believes that a strong performance on the show can sometimes boost sales as much, or more, than a win.

“A hot performance on prime-time television is not something an audience easily forgets,” said Fine, whose New York firm provides the computerized sales data used to compile Billboard’s pop chart.

“The response is almost always immediate. Retailers can measure it at the cash register within days.”

Performance slots on the Grammy telecast are so coveted that several record labels this year apparently petitioned the academy to allow nominees on their rosters a chance to perform on the show.

Officials at Atlantic Records will reportedly boycott tonight’s ceremony to protest the exclusion of triple Grammy nominee Mark Cohn, an Atlantic artist, from this evening’s list of performers.

“Our research shows that there are 50 million Americans out there who buy more than six albums a year,” said Fine. “Even if an artist has already sold a couple of million albums before they appear on this program, the opportunity to expand their market base is enormous.”

Besides Cole, tonight’s show is scheduled to include performances by LL Cool J, Michael Bolton, Color Me Badd, Boyz II Men, Luther Vandross, Amy Grant, Mariah Carey and Raitt.

The academy kicked off its 34th annual Grammy week ceremonies Saturday with a gala benefit to raise money for MusiCares, a nonprofit organization established to fight substance abuse and help musicians obtain health care-related financial assistance.

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