A Redneck Rapper and Other Unlikely Breakthroughs

The names getting the most chatter for fall album releases are familiar ones: Michael and Mariah, Mick and Lenny, Britney and Bubba....

Bubba?

That’s Bubba Sparxxx, a new artist that some key music-business prognosticators have picked as the potential big breakthrough of the fall season. The first act from hot hip-hop producer Timbaland’s new Interscope Records-distributed Beat Club label, Sparxxx is sort of Georgia’s answer to Eminem and Kid Rock--a rapper who flaunts his rural, white-trash roots with as much pride as urban African American artists do their ghetto-life credentials.

His debut album, “Dark Days, Bright Nights,” is due Oct. 9. In the video for his first single, “Ugly.” Sparxxx, wearing overalls on his sturdy, farm-fed frame, and a posse of New South pals chase pigs in the mud and engage in tractor races over a catchy Timbaland track using a Hindi film music sample almost identical to the one he used in Missy Elliott’s “Get Ur Freak On.” (Elliott makes a cameo in this song and video.)

It’s certainly gotten the attention of a panel of radio programmers, music retail executives and pop magazine editors surveyed by Pop Eye for predictions about the biggest sellers and key breakthroughs in the months leading up to Christmas--the busiest slice of the calendar for CD sales.

“It’s a tremendous record, an amazing talent,” says Rolling Stone assistant managing editor Joe Levy. “It’s much more country than other Southern rappers we’ve heard--not country music, but a Southern-fried way of speaking and thinking.” E-Man, music director of Los Angeles hip-hop radio station KPWR-FM (105.9), has watched the Bubba buzz build already and says this will be the “surprise artist of the year,” the one who will seem to come from nowhere and have huge success.

Of course, that statement involves going out on a limb for an act that’s just getting started, and Spin magazine editor in chief Alan Light acknowledges that Sparxxx “could really turn into something, or nothing,” especially in a season crowded with expected slam dunks from rockers Creed and rapper Jay-Z, Michael Jackson’s return, the Mariah Carey melodrama and Britney Spears’ strip show. Among others likely to command considerable public attention are albums from artists ranging from Mick Jagger to No Doubt to (possibly) Garth Brooks, while Incubus and System of a Down inject some relative maturity and artistic ambition into rock’s nu-metal wave.

In addition to Levy, E-Man and Light, our panel includes music directors Michael Steele of pop station KIIS-FM (102.7), Lisa Worden of rocker KROQ-FM (106.7) and Tonya Campos of country KZLA-FM (93.9); Wherehouse retail chain new-release buyer Bob Bell and urban-music buyer Violet Brown; and URB magazine music editor Kathryn McGuire. Each was asked to predict both the biggest seller and biggest breakthrough album for his or her format or genre as well as comment on some other notable releases. The tally has been broken down into demographic categories.

Pop

Winner: Michael Jackson, “Invincible” (due Oct. 30). “Obviously the Michael album will be spectacular,” Steele says. “I’ve heard most of it and it will blow you away ... very contemporary but also a lot of retro feel.” Steele also sees big things for Jagger’s “Goddess in the Doorway” (Nov. 13), especially the collaborations with Lenny Kravitz, Bono and Rob Thomas. He says Spears (due Nov. 6) will certainly sell records, but he’s not sold from her new single, “I’m a Slave 4 U,” which he describes as sounding like a Prince remake. And as for Carey, he says that what he’s heard of her just-released “Glitter” album doesn’t sound like gold for the station.

Breakthrough: Shakira, untitled, (due Nov. 20). Steele says the Colombian singer’s first English-language album could make her as big a presence in the U.S. pop mainstream as she’s been in the Spanish-language market.

Hip-Hop

Winner: Jay-Z, “The Blueprint” (in stores now). E-Man picks the consistently multi-platinum rapper’s sixth album as the biggest of a crowded field of star releases, including coming albums from DMX, Ludacris, Jermaine Dupri and Ja Rule, as well as soundtracks from “Training Day” and “The Wash.” The street buzz has been huge for the Jay-Z album, which is also seen as having more pop crossover potential than his previous offerings.

Breakthrough: Bubba Sparxxx.

Rock

Mainstream winner: Creed, “Weathered” (Nov. 20). The 10 million sales of 1999’s “Human Clay” caught many people off-guard. This time the surprise would be if the earnest Florida band isn’t among the season’s top sellers of any genre.

The Wherehouse’s Bell and Rolling Stone’s Levy look for Kravitz’s sixth album, “Lenny” (Oct. 30), to keep the “Fly” and “American Woman” momentum going. Levy says No Doubt’s “Rock Steady” (Dec. 18), which has a varied roster of producers and a collaboration with Prince, will make good on the genre-crossing exposure singer Gwen Stefani got in the past year via pairings with Eve and Moby.

Modern-rock winner: Incubus, “Morning View” (Oct. 23). Is it possible for a band coming off a big MTV and radio hit and a previous album approaching 2 million in sales to be a candidate for breakthrough status? Maybe not anymore, but the steady two-year rise of 1999’s “Make Yourself” album and the recent MTV-driven success of the song “Drive” sets up the new album for an explosion upon release.

“If all those kids who [became fans] over 18 months of the last record are there the first week with this, it will be huge,” says Spin’s Light, while KROQ’s Worden also picks it to be her station’s biggest hit through Christmas.

System of a Down’s “Toxicity” (in stores now) is a close second. Worden believes the No. 2 debut of the past week is just the beginning.

“They’ve laid the groundwork and the album’s incredible,” she says.

Breakthrough: P.O.D., “Satellite” (in stores now). “Very melodic, very hard and there really is nobody doing this at this time,” Levy says of the nation’s biggest Christian-minded hard-rock band.

Country

Winner: Garth Brooks, title and date to be announced. The arrival Monday of a new single (“Beer Run,” a duet with George Jones) and word that a new album is expected in November from the all-time country sales king have programmers’ hearts racing--especially with Shania Twain on maternity break, Faith Hill taking some time off and the Dixie Chicks in a legal battle with Columbia Records. Heck, the programmers are even willing to forget the whole Chris Gaines thing.

“There’s your stocking stuffer right here,” says KZLA’s Campos.

Breakthrough: Chely Wright, “Never Love You Enough” (Sept. 25). “She’s had a couple of hits, but this album all the way around is full of hits,” Campos says. “She’s been one of those level-three artists and this will push her to the forefront.”

Holiday

Winner: Barbra Streisand, title to be announced (Oct. 30). “Her only other Christmas album was more than 30 years ago, so as far as holiday music is concerned, this will be the one,” Wherehouse’s Bell says. “Upper-demo fans will really go nuts for this.”